Over 100 days since it stormed to power in Tamil Nadu, the C. Joseph Vijay-led TVK government will face its first test in the Madurantakam and Dharapuram Assembly constituencies, where by-elections were announced on Monday.
The elections will be held on October 6 for two of the seven vacant seats in the state. The Dharapuram seat was held by AIADMK’s Sathyabhama, while the party’s senior leader Marathagam Kumaravel held the Madurantakam seat. Both resigned as MLAs on May 26 to join the TVK.
Polls have not been announced for Tiruchi East, Ambasamudram, Viralimalai, Perundurai and Karur because election-related cases concerning the returned candidates remain pending.
The votes will be counted on October 9.
TVK strategy
The elections are significant for TVK, considering that despite the sweep, its candidates did not fare well in both these constituencies. In the assembly general election results that were announced on May 4, TVK’s Gauri Chitra, who contested on behalf of the party, came in third place with 34,662 votes. In Madhurantakam, TVK’s Ezhil Catherine Ezhilmalai came in second place with 7,194 votes.
However, the tables have turned as the AIADMK candidates who won both seats are now with TVK. Speculation is that Marathagam Kumaravel, who is now TVK’s deputy general secretary, will likely be fielded from Madhurantakam.
TVK needs to ensure they win both the seats as they are still 10 seats short of a majority in the Assembly. The party’s tactic is to win all by-elections to avoid depending too much on allies. The party would also see these election results as a vote of approval from the public for its 100 days. TVK believes its policies, including anti-corruption measures and substantial announcements related to election promises, will help them.
However, it won’t be a smooth sail for the party as both AIADMK and DMK badly need a win to prove their relevance.
If there is a three-way contest, the split votes will lead to favourable results for them.
The AIADMK is now being forced to prove its strength by winning both the constituencies again. With internal conflict rife, if the party loses the by-election, it will be a further setback to Edappadi Palaniswami.
For the ruling DMK, the wins will be seen as critical. It would not only reinforce its dominance. But speculations are that if there is a three-way contest between the DMK, AIADMK and the TVK, the DMK could boycott the elections to avoid splitting the votes. TVK’s hope is that the split votes will favour them.
