In upper-caste-dominated Uttarakhand, where they constitute more than 50 per cent of the electorate and have a tilt towards the BJP, the Congress is trying to carve out its own support base that can help its ship sail through the magic number of 35 out of the state’s 70 Assembly seats in the elections next year.
"Congress has sensed a lot of resentment among youth about paper leaks and unemployment. These two issues will have to be picked up by the party at the grassroots. I think the party has believed in it more since the Chhatron Ki Goonj event, where many young men and women, as well as students, took part and showed support to the Congress," a party spokesperson said.
Moreover, more than 30 per cent of the state’s population is between 18 and 40 and is widely impacted by unemployment, paper leaks and an unprogressive education system. The Congress wants to focus on this group and make it a new voting bloc for the upcoming Assembly elections in 2027. Besides that, the party is also looking to bring the Dalit population into its fold by taking up social justice issues. This bloc is 18 per cent strong in the state. Despite there being only 13 reserved seats, the state has more than 20 such seats with a sizeable Dalit population of more than 20 per cent, and a strong performance among them can help Congress advance in the electoral space of the state.
The safest bet for the party is the Muslim bloc, which is around 14 per cent. Congress is certain that the minority community, as strategic voters, will vote en masse for the party and therefore could tone down its outreach to Muslims so that the BJP does not polarise the elections, which has the potential to make Hindu voters sway away from the Congress, by labelling the grand old party a Muslim-based party.
With these combinations, it can get a head start in the two districts of Haridwar and Udham Singh Nagar, which seem to be the most favourable regions for the party. The two districts hold 20 Assembly seats, with nine in Udham Singh Nagar and 11 in Haridwar.
Muslims and Dalits in the two districts will hold the key this time. This is also because there are fewer chances of division in Dalit votes after the depletion of the Mayawati-led BSP, which has seen an electoral decline in almost all the states where it has been contesting.
With around 13 lakh voters, about 2.5 lakh are Dalits and 4 lakh are Muslims. In Udham Singh Nagar, however, it is the Sikh vote that matters. According to political observers, Sikhs are also showing a greater tilt towards the Congress. Of the 11 lakh voters in the district, between 2 and 2.5 lakh voters are Muslims, about 2 lakh voters are Dalits, and about 1.8 lakh are Sikhs. An equation, if the Congress plays it well, can help the party build its long-time electoral base.
To kickstart its campaign, the party is planning a mass street campaign in Haldwani against a purification ritual performed by a group of people whom the Congress has accused of having links with the BJP.
"The party has weak grassroots in Uttarakhand, and there hasn't been much improvement in the past few months either. Now, if there are early ground actions, it might add some fervour among the people, and some people can join the party and consolidate the hands of Congress," a political analyst said. "Not only is a narrative important, as it doesn't reach enough corners due to a lack of cadre in many places, but a wave is also important this time to win the elections."
