Two states, two signals: What Punjab and Himachal local body polls reveal about upcoming assembly election battles

The local body elections in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, held within a gap of weeks in May, have given the ruling parties in both states very different signals ahead of the assembly elections due next year.

In Punjab, the civic polls gave a boost to the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which emerged as the dominant force across urban local bodies despite recent defections and the opposition’s claim of anti-incumbency and governance slowdown. In Himachal Pradesh, the results exposed the difficulties facing the Congress government led by Chief Minister Sukhvinder Singh Sukhu, with the BJP winning three of the four municipal corporations where elections were held on party symbols.

The Punjab elections covered 1,896 wards across 12 municipal corporations, 76 municipal councils and 21 nagar panchayats. AAP won 958 of the 1,977 wards across the state—nearly 48 per cent of the total seats. The Congress finished a distant second with 397 wards, while the Shiromani Akali Dal won 191. The BJP secured 172 wards, fewer than the 251 won by Independents. The BSP won seven wards.

The AAP also performed strongly in key municipal corporations. It won comfortably in Moga, Barnala, Bathinda and Batala, and emerged as the single largest party in Mohali. In Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann’s home constituency of Dhuri, the party won 20 of the 21 wards.

For Mann, who faces the assembly elections early next year, the result offers some relief.

The civic polls were the first major electoral test for AAP after recent internal setbacks and defections of six Rajya Sabha MPs, which had raised questions about the party’s organisational stability and strengthened the BJP’s claim that it was expanding its base in Punjab after breaking away from the Shiromani Akali Dal.

The results indicate that these setbacks have not yet translated into a visible erosion of AAP’s support on the ground. The party retained support among lower and middle-income urban voters and continued to perform well in small and medium towns, which have remained central to its support base since the 2022 assembly elections.

The AAP credited the victory to the government’s welfare measures, including free electricity, health schemes and its anti-drug campaign.

For the BJP, the results were mixed. The party retained influence in pockets such as Abohar and Pathankot, but the results showed that it still has ground to cover before emerging as a major standalone force in Punjab.

The Congress, despite finishing second overall, failed to convert dissatisfaction against the ruling party into wider political gains. Its better performance was largely limited to parts of the Doaba region, again highlighting factionalism and organisational weaknesses within the state unit.

Local body elections in Punjab have traditionally favoured the party in power. Even so, the result gives Mann some breathing space ahead of the assembly polls.

In Himachal Pradesh, the outcome was more difficult for the ruling Congress government.

The elections were held across 51 urban local bodies, including the four municipal corporations of Mandi, Dharamshala, Solan and Palampur, where polls were conducted on party symbols.

The BJP won three of the four municipal corporations, securing victories in Mandi, Dharamshala and Solan, while the Congress retained only Palampur.

The BJP won 12 of the 14 wards in Mandi, 11 of 17 in Dharamshala and 10 of 17 in Solan. The Congress held Palampur with 11 of the 15 wards.

The BJP described the results as a sign of growing public dissatisfaction with the Sukhu government. Congress leaders, however, argued that party-backed candidates had performed better overall across urban local bodies and accused the BJP of overstating the importance of the corporation results.

But Sukhu faces a larger political challenge. Himachal Pradesh has largely followed a pattern of changing governments every five years. Since the 1990s, voters in the state have repeatedly voted out incumbent governments regardless of party.

That trend already puts the Congress government under pressure. Internal divisions within the state Congress have added to the problem. Congress leaders have argued that local body polls cannot be seen as a direct indicator of assembly election outcomes.

Even so, the results carry political weight. In Punjab, AAP has shown that its urban and semi-urban support base remains largely intact despite internal problems. In Himachal Pradesh, the Congress government is dealing not only with opposition attacks but also with the state’s long-standing anti-incumbency pattern.

Neither result guarantees anything for the assembly elections. But both elections have given an early indication of where the two ruling parties stand.

In Punjab, Mann will hope to carry this momentum into the assembly election campaign early next year. In Himachal Pradesh, Sukhu still has 18 months before the 2027 assembly elections, but much will depend on whether he can manage factionalism within the Congress and rebuild confidence among voters.