As polling for the 294-member West Bengal Assembly concluded on Wednesday, exit poll predictions presented a mixed picture. While some surveys indicated that the Trinamool Congress (TMC) could retain power, others suggested that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) might secure a victory in the state.
Amid these contrasting projections, prominent polling agency Axis My India has chosen not to release its exit poll data for West Bengal, at least for now.
Speaking to NDTV, the agency’s founder Pradeep Gupta said the decision stems from concerns over sample reliability. He saidt Axis My India relies on face-to-face interviews, but encountered significant reluctance among voters.
"When we tried to talk after the first phase, about 60-70 per cent of the people had their lips sealed. They were not even ready to say yes or no," he said.
He added that it would not be appropriate to make projections based on an incomplete or unrepresentative sample. “So, as long as our sample is not representative, on the basis of a 20-30 per cent sample, we do not believe it is right to predict any number. For that, we will try once again Thursday. Maybe now that the elections have been held, people will be more relaxed," he told the channel.
Meanwhile, other pollsters have released varying forecasts. Agencies such as P-Marq, Matrize, and Poll Diary projected a potential win for the BJP, while People’s Pulse and Janmat suggested a clear majority for the TMC. Another survey by JVC indicated a closely contested race.
According to Matrize, the BJP could win 146–161 seats, with the TMC securing 125–140. P-Marq projected 150–175 seats for the BJP and 118–138 for the TMC. In contrast, Janmat estimated 195–205 seats for the TMC and 80–90 for the BJP.
