The Manorama News C-voter mega survey for the 2026 Kerala Assembly polls suggests a decisive edge for the LDF in its traditional strongholds of Kasaragod and Kannur. Conversely, the UDF is projected to maintain a dominant position across all three constituencies in Wayanad, indicating a sharp regional divide in voter sentiment.
The survey also suggests that LDF is set to lose some of the seats it had won in 2021. LDF is now projected to secure between six and eight seats, while the UDF is set to dominate Malappuram.
The survey says that UDF will make gains in the five districts of Malabar. The prediction is that the UDF may get 25 to 34 seats out of the 48. The LDF will get 14 to 23 seats. The survey results also indicate that the LDF may lose four to 13 seats in Malabar compared to the 2021 elections. These seats will go to the UDF's account.
In a notable shift, the survey suggests a potential setback for former BJP State President K. Surendran in Manjeshwar. Meanwhile, a high-voltage contest is unfolding in Peravoor, where sitting Congress MLA Sunny Joseph maintains a slight lead over former Health Minister K.K. Shailaja. In Beypore, the fight is tight with Minister P.A. Mohammed Riyas in the fray.
The survey results for a total of 48 seats, including five in Kasaragod, eleven in Kannur, three in Wayanad, 13 in Kozhikode, and 16 in Malappuram, have been released district-wise.
Manjeshwar
The NDA is pinning high hopes on Manjeshwar, where former BJP State President K. Surendran was defeated by a razor-thin margin of just 745 votes in the last election. Seeking to retain the seat, the UDF has fielded incumbent MLA A.K.M. Ashraf, while the LDF has nominated K.R. Jayananda for what is expected to be a fierce triangular contest.
Peravoor
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Kannur has several constituencies witnessing intense contests between prominent political leaders, and the LDF still dominate. Out of the 11 constituencies in Kannur district, the LDF is expected to win between 6 and 8 seats, while the UDF may secure 3 to 5 seats, and the NDA is unlikely to win any seat in the district.
In Peravoor, the contest is neck and neck, with the survey indicating a slight edge for Sunny Joseph. LDF has fielded K.K. Shailaja from Peravoor this time.
Sunny Joseph has defeated CPM's K.V. Sakkeer Hussain by 3,172 votes. While Shailaja had won from Mattannur in 2021 with a massive margin of 60,963 votes.
Beypore
The survey indicates that LDF could lose its stronghold in Kozhikode district, which it dominated in 2021. Of the 13 seats, LDF is now projected to secure between 6 and 8 seats. While the UDF is expected to make significant gains, with a projected rally of 5 to 7 seats.
While in Beypore, the contest is tight as P.V. Anwar is taking on Minister P.A. Mohammed Riyas, who is also the son-in-law of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The pre-poll survey gives a slight edge to Riyas. In the last election, Riyas defeated Congress candidate P.M. Niyas by a margin of 28,747 votes.
