Who will win the Maharashtra BMC election? New surveys reveal a divided Mumbai

The survey also explored the chances of the Thackeray brothers taking down the Mahayuti alliance

BMC-Elections - 1 Union Minister Piyush Goyal greets the gathering during a public meeting ahead of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation election, at Kandivali East area, in Mumbai | X

The buzz created by the elections to the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), the country's richest municipal corporation, is at its peak in Maharashtra. All eyes are on whether the Mahayuti alliance led by the BJP, Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde faction, and NCP’s Ajit Pawar faction will be able to take on Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT)  and Raj Thackeray's MNS. The elections to the BMC are being held after a gap of three years.

According to the new C-Voter survey conducted among voters in Mumbai, 53 per cent of   those surveyed confidently believed the Mahayuti will win the BMC elections. They believe the Grand Alliance will once again perform resoundingly, while only 18 per cent believe the ruling alliance will not achieve the same success this time.

On whether the Thackeray brothers will sweep Marathi votes, over 61 per cent of voters claimed the alliance will help them clinch Marathi votes. Only 14 percent believed it would have no significant impact. There has been considerable discussion about the meetings  between the two leaders in recent days.

Another point of the survey was regarding the Thackeray family, which has been facing a  setback over the last few elections. While 72 per cent agreed that the Thackeray name  was still a major brand in Maharashtra politics, only 11 per cent believed otherwise. On who would be the heir of Shiv Sena, 41 per cent of respondents considered Uddhav  Thackeray the frontrunner, while only 28 percent named Eknath Shinde. Just 10 per cent supported Raj Thackeray.

On whether the Mayor of Mumbai should be a Marathi, 62 percent said the next mayor of Mumbai should be Marathi, while 21 per cent disagreed.

The poll questioned 1,241 people across age groups, genders, castes, political affiliations, and languages. The survey has a 5% margin of error, making the results highly reliable.

Meanwhile, another survey conducted by Asendia regarding the BMC election results revealed the Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray's MNS alliance is in a strong position, while the BJP and Shinde's Shiv Sena could face a major setback.

Those surveyed were also asked about the electoral impact of the faces of Prime Minister  Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis.

Only four percent of women, four percent of Muslim voters, two percent of Marathi-speaking voters, and four percent of other voters said they would vote solely based on the performance of the councilor, not on the faces of politicians.

On who the Muslims will vote for, the survey revealed their diverse preferences. Twelve  per cent of Muslim voters said they would vote for a party that fielded a Muslim candidate, while two percent said they would support a candidate who was positioned to defeat the BJP. According to the same survey, 10 per cent of Muslim voters favored the alliance of Raj Thackeray and Uddhav Thackeray, while 11 percent supported the  Congress-led coalition. However, 64 percent of voters in this significant segment did not provide a clear answer, leaving their preferences unclear.