Surpassing the super show it delivered in the 2010 Bihar Assembly polls, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is set to win around 210 seats in the state. With the Opposition ‘Mahagathbandhan’ reduced to a paltry 28 seats, the BJP has emerged as the single largest party, as it is on course to win 93 seats.
Congress, the second biggest ally of the Opposition alliance, has delivered its worst performance ever in the state, as Rahul Gandhi’s party could well draw a blank and finish behind its communist allies. The landslide victory has brought the focus back to the exit polls that had predicted the people of Bihar handing Nitish Kumar another term.
Also in the mix of things is Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), which failed to open its account on its debut contest. Here is revisiting some of the exit polls to analyse how close did they manage to get to the mandate of the voters.
- An exit poll by Matrize had predicted 147–167 seats to NDA, 70–90 to Mahagathbandhan (MGB), 0–2 to Jan Suraaj Party. Smaller players and Independents could win 2–8 seats, it said.
- Meanwhile, Vote Vibe said NDA would finish between 125 and 145, and the Mahagathbandhan would fight hard winning somewhere between 95 and 115 seats. JSP could win 0–2 while others would get 1–3, it had said.
- DV Research has predicted 137–152 seats in favour of NDA. The Grand Alliance would finish somewhere between 83 and 98 while JSP could win 2–4 seats.
- People’s Insight had predicted 133–148 seats for the NDA, 87–102 to Grand Alliance, 0–2 to JSP, and 3–6 seats to others.
- According to Peoples Pulse, NDA was to win 133–159 seats, while the Grand Alliance will have to settle for 75–101 seats. JSP could win up to five seats while 2–8 seats could be bagged by others.
- JVC Poll’s finding, too, had projected NDA’s victory in 135–150 constituencies. However, they said the Mahagathbandhan could win up to 103 seats (88–103). They had claimed that JSP was not going to win more than a single seat and may well draw a blank.
- The exit poll by Chanakya Strategies has given 130–138 seats to NDA, 100–108 to Mahagathbandhan, and nil to JSP. They had said that smaller players could run away with 3–5 seats.
- Pollster P-Marq has projected 142–162 seats for NDA, 80–98 for MGB, 1–4 for JSP, and 0–3 seats for others.
- Dainik Bhaskar projections said that NDA is likely to win 145–160 seats, MGB 73–91, JSP 0–3, whereas 5–7 seats will be bagged by others.
- DVC Research poll survey had said that NDA would score between 137 and 152. MGB’s tally would stand between 83 and 98 and the JSP could win 2–4 seats.
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TIF Research-NAI has also indicated a major win for the BJP-led alliance with 145–163 seats going to the NDA and 76–95 to the Grand Alliance.
NDA's historic win
The numbers mark a dramatic return for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose political obituary had been written many times over the past year. Instead, the results suggest an emphatic endorsement of his social welfare model and long-cultivated support base of women and Extremely Backward Classes. This will pave the way for Nitish swearing in for the tenth time.
This decisive mandate is also good news for the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA government. The emphatic endorsement of the Modi-Nitish combination has ensured that the SIR controversy failed to click with the voters and that the Centre could push for bigger reforms. The Modi government’s engagement with the Bihari migrants—running trains for them during the festival season, promising them bigger cash transfers, jobs, and hailing the cultural symbols—has delivered on the ground.
