Now that most exit poll results are out, anticipation has peaked at both camps in Bihar. While the NDA, led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is upbeat after most exit polls favoured them, the opposition Mahagathbandhan is keeping hopes that the voters will give them a chance after two decades of JD(U) led regime.
The majority of the polls, including the JVC, Dainik Bhaskar, Matrize, and People’s Insight exit polls, predicted a clean sweep for the NDA between 135 and 160 seats. Only one survey, Journo Mirror, predicted a favourable result for the Mahagathbandhan.
That said, exit polls can actually go wrong, and in Bihar, it has always proven to be unreliable.
In 2020, most exit polls had predicted a narrow victory for the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan. Of the 11 surveys, most predicted a comeback for RJD and Mahagathbandhan, putting the total number of seats above majority mark of 112. It only gave JD(U)-led NDA 108 seats. At that time, Nitish was with the NDA.
However, as the results came, NDA won 125 and RJD-led Mahagathbandhan won 110. AIMIM won five seats, Chirag Paswan’s LJP, BSP, and Independents won eight each.
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In 2020, the Bihar Axis Exit Poll projected 139-161 seats for Mahagathbandhan. It predicted that the NDA would win only 69-91 seats. Bihar Today’s Chanakya Exit poll too predicted over 180 for Mahagathbandhan, which fell flat, and 55 for NDA. In reality, the BJP alone won 74 and JD(U) 43.
The C-Voter survey did not reflect the reality, though their numbers weren’t that erratic. It gave 120 to the Mahagathbandhan and 112 to the NDA. Another agency called DV Research predicted a win for the Opposition, while Jan ki Baat’s polls also proved inaccurate.
As for 2015, archrivals RJD and JD(U) joined hands with the Congress to form the Mahagathbandhan, while the NDA was led by the BJP along with the undivided LJP, Rashtriya Lok Samta Party, and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular). Ironically, the prediction was that the NDA would sweep the elections, which didn't happen.
