The first phase of voting in the Bihar Assembly Elections on Thursday witnessed a record-breaking voter turnout of 65 per cent. The Election Commission stated the first phase of the assembly elections concluded “peacefully in a festive mood with the highest ever voter turnout of 64.66 per cent in the history of Bihar".
In the first phase of the 2020 elections, there were 37 million voters, of whom 20.6 million cast their ballots. This time around, of 37.5 million voters, approximately 24.2 million exercised their franchise.
The fact that women and migrant workers, who didn’t return to their workplaces after Chhath Puja to cast their ballots, came out in droves to cast their votes could have a significant impact.
The major question in political circles now is whether this increased voter turnout signals change or is a sign of Nitish Kumar's return to power.
The popular perception is that whenever the country votes wholeheartedly, it hints at a strong anti-incumbency. Political pundits predict that Nitish could face a strong wave of anti-incumbency this time, mostly because of his political flip-flops to stay in power. He also faces corruption charges and allegations of not doing enough to create employment opportunities in the state, as one of the major issues faced by the state is the migration of youth in search of jobs to other states.
There are some specific incidents that support this observation. The highest voter turnout in West Bengal between 1991 and 2021 was recorded in the 2011 assembly elections, when Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress toppled the strong Left-wing government. At that time, the state recorded a voter turnout of 84.33 per cent up from 81.9 per cent in the previous election. In Assam, voter turnout increased to 84.4 per cent in 2016, from around 75 per cent previously. During this period, the BJP took power from the Congress.
That said, it would be far-fetched to say that the higher voter turnout means Nitish would be booted out of power.
There have been instances where, despite record-breaking voter turnout, the ruling party has returned to power, including in Bihar. The 2010 Bihar Assembly elections saw a voter turnout increase of about 6.8 percentage points compared to 2005, yet the ruling NDA alliance won more seats and increased its vote share. A similar trend was observed in 2015 and 2020.
In many other states, including Chhattisgarh, record voter turnout in some constituencies repeatedly demonstrated continued support for the BJP. This suggests that increased voter turnout can sometimes consolidate incumbent victories rather than bring about change.
The first phase of voting took place in the Darbhanga, Tirhut, Kosi, Saran, Munger, and Bhagalpur divisions. In 2020, 60 of these 121 seats went to the NDA and 61 to the Grand Alliance. This time, with the entry of Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party, the contest has become triangular. The NDA is calling it a wave of public support, while the Grand Alliance is calling it a sign of change.
The fact that women turned out was higher numbers also indicates things are favourable for Nitish, as they have always been his support base. Women have been a political force for him in Bihar since 2005, with initiatives like the Cycle Scheme, reservations, and prohibition, helping him. The support waned in 2020 but the Nitish government launched a Rs 10,000 aid scheme in 2025 aiming women.
Political pundits believe women's votes will decide the outcome of Bihar's government this time.
