As Bihar heads to the polling booth, an opinion poll published on Wednesday has made a shocking prediction about the outcome. The polls by Polstrat, a political consultancy focused on data-backed research, have predicted that the incumbent BJP-led NDA will retain power, with a comfortable margin.
The Polstrat survey, which was based on a sample size of 8.42 lakh respondents, claimed that the NDA would emerge with a 44.80 per cent vote share, as compared to Mahagadbandhan at 38.60 per cent—a difference of a 6.2 per cent vote share.
The NDA is expected to get 133-142 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan is forecast to get 80-88 seats.
In terms of the power equation within parties, the Polstrat poll claims that within the NDA, the BJP would get 70-72 seats and the JD(U) would get 53-56 seats, leaving behind 10-12 and 0-2 seats for smaller parties like the LJP and HAM, respectively.
As for the Mahagathbandhan, the internal balance remains tilted in favour of the RJD, which is forecast to get 69-72 seats, with Congress getting just 10-13 seats.
However, Polstrat's age-wise poll also reveals a different picture. Over 40.73 per cent of voters in the 18-25 age bracket are seen favouring the Grand Alliance, while 43.18 per cent of voters in the 26-40 age bracket prefer the NDA.
The Prashant Kishor-led new challenger Jan Suraaj Party's performance in the Polstrat opinion poll showed it is a crucial player in Bihar's vote share ecosystem, largely depending on voters in the 18-25 age group.
However, the opinion polls also show that the NDA dominates voter choices in the middle-class and senior citizen categories—47 per cent of voters in the 41-59 age group and over 47 per cent of senior citizen voters go for the BJP-led alliance.
With over 3.75 crore voters set to vote in 121 of Bihar's 243 constituencies, the first phase of the voting process is set to go on till 5 PM. The state average polling percentage stood at 42.31 per cent by early noon, with the maximum turnout recorded in the Gopalganj district (46.73 per cent), and the lowest turnout recorded in the Patna district (37.72 per cent), Bihar’s Chief Electoral Officer said.
