The first phase of Bihar assembly elections on November 6 will open with two of the most watched contests in the state - Raghopur and Tarapur.
These two seats are on opposite ends of the political spectrum, but both are linked by the presence of leaders one already a chief ministerial face and other, potential CM candidate in future. Tejashwi Yadav is defending his family stronghold in Raghopur. He is grand alliance’s official chief ministerial candidate.
While Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary contesting Tarapur is attempting to convert the seat into a firm NDA base, and in the process emerge as the strong contender for the CM’s seat if BJP were to pick up its own CM. Currently, the NDA is contesting under the leadership of Nitish Kumar and has clarified that he would be CM again.
Raghopur: RJD’s core turf
Raghopur in Vaishali district has been central to RJD’s history. Since the 1995, it has been associated with the Lalu-Rabri era as well as Tejashwi’s rise. The constituency has sent RJD candidates to the assembly eight times. Lalu Prasad won twice, Rabri Devi won thrice but lost in 2010 and Tejashwi has held the seat since 2015.
The constituency has a sizeable Yadav and Muslim population, which has driven RJD victories for decades. Scheduled Castes, Mallah-Nishad communities and other OBC groups add to the social mix.
As the area is surrounded by Ganga, flooding, drainage, poor road connectivity and river erosion remain chronic issues.
Tejashwi is seeking a third consecutive win. His campaign revolves around jobs, recruitment drives, and welfare sops for the population. The RJD is also focusing on cash transfer schemes – Rs 2,500 to women, and support for women-led households.
The BJP has fielded Satish Kumar Yadav who had earlier defeated Rabri Devi in 2010 as a JDU candidate. He later joined BJP. He had started his political career with the RJD. He is now trying to consolidate upper-caste voters and win over OBC groups, apart from his own caste votes. The NDA campaign focuses on rural infrastructure, beneficiary schemes, tap water supply, housing coverage and improved roadways in villages.
Interestingly, Jan Suraaj Party founder Prashant Kishor had earlier indicated to contest from this seat but later changed his mind. Had he contested the polls, then it would have turned into a much more interesting election. As he backed out, the move was read in political circles as “running away” from the hot contest.
For the electorate, the choice is between RJD and BJP candidates – one who could become a CM, the other only a minister if he emerges as the giant killer.
Tarapur: An NDA fortress
Tarapur in Munger district, under the Jamui Lok Sabha seat, has a long history of close elections. Since 1951, the constituency has gone to polls 19 times, including two bypolls. The Congress, The JD(U) and its earlier avatar, the Samata Party, RJD have won from this seats multiple times. No party has maintained uninterrupted dominance for long. Since 2010, the seat had been held by the JDU.
The constituency is dominated by Kushwaha voters, with OBCs, Scheduled Castes and Muslims forming the rest of the base.
Deputy Chief Minister Samrat is contesting polls after a gap of 15 years and first time from this seat. He had earlier contested and won five time.
If Samrat wins from this seat, it will be first time recorded in BJP’s name. In the last election in 2020, JD(U)’s Mewalal Chaudhary defeated RJD’s Divya Prakash by 7,225 votes. After Mewalal’s death, JD(U) retained the seat in a 2021 bypoll. This time, the NDA has shifted to the BJP by fielding Samrat.
The BJP’s campaign received a shot in the arm as a day before polling, BSP candidate Ashish Anand withdrew and announced support for Samrat.
Samrat's campaign focuses on irrigation solutions, better farm procurement at MSP, all-weather rural roads, and NDA’s welfare schemes. What helps his chances on this seat is the fact that his father had won from this seat six times as an independent, Congress, Samta Party and RJD candidate.
The RJD has fielded Arun Kumar, who is banking on consolidated grand alliance support. Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party candidate Dr Santosh Kumar Singh, who was earlier with the BJP.
Raghopur will decide whether Tejashwi maintains an unbroken record in his home turf at a time when the grand alliance is pitching him as its chief ministerial face. Tarapur offers the BJP an opening to build a direct electoral base in a constituency long associated with JD(U) and backward-caste politics. Together, they set the tone for the first phase, where caste blocs, turnout levels and smaller-party candidates may determine the final balance.
