Blair House diplomacy: Modi, Trump to look at creative solutions on tariffs, illegal immigration

Despite United States President Donald Trump’s singular focus on domestic matters like illegal immigration, the Trump administration is going out of its way to ensure the meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Washington on February 13 is a success. 

Modi is expected to reach the US in the evening of February 12 from Paris. On the cards are bilateral meetings with President Trump in the forenoon of February 13 and later in the day, he is scheduled to interact with business leaders and also the Indian community. However, the community outreach is likely to be low-key this time as Modi is in the US only for a day and the focus is more on reinforcing the personal rapport with Trump. PM Modi will leave for India after day-long engagements in Washington.

Modi is likely to stay at the Blair House, the US President’s Guest House, next to the White House. Incidentally, the US president elects stay at the Blair House before inauguration ceremonies during the transition period, when the incoming president is briefed by the incumbent cabinet and senior officials on the decisions being made.

Politically, both Trump’s and Modi’s support base share political affinity on several issues. While Trump is focused on outcomes, said officials, former US president Joe Biden focused more on policy objectives especially where ‘human rights’ were concerned. Observers in New Delhi believe the ideological overlap at this juncture should help smoothen out differences over issues like Bangladesh.

Modi will be one of the first few foreign leaders to hold bilateral meetings with Trump, after Israel’s Netanyahu, Japan’s Ishiba and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, reflecting the continuing importance of India in US calculus. 

At the meetings, the Indian side is expected to focus on four areas- trade, technology, defence and easing pathways for the legal movement of Indians. The emphasis will be to view both movement of goods by reducing tariffs and legal migration as a combined factor, that could be advantageous to both sides if mutual concerns are properly addressed. The challenge will be to match the order of priorities and creatively find solutions on tariffs and illegal immigration, said sources.

A similar approach is needed to address the concerns of the US and maximise returns for India on legal migration involving H1B, and student visas and shortening the wait time for US visas at Embassy/Consulates in India.  There is also a focus on technology partnerships, critical for the success of Make in India especially in defence and critical technologies like semi-conductors and quantum.  

Sources said at present the waiting time for US visas at its Embassy/Consulates is 442 days in Delhi, 444 days in Mumbai, 436 days in Chennai, 429 days in Hyderabad and 415 days in Kolkata.

Officials believe New Delhi is well poised to utilise the policy changes that Trump is bringing especially in the petroleum sector, AI, education, defence industries and space. 

“It is time that Indian corporates start looking at investments in the US that not only give financial returns but supply cheaper inputs to their manufacturing in India and also create American jobs,” said an official. Oil presents an attractive area of Indian investment in America, he added.

The Americans are also keen to clinch a defence deal during the visit, sources said. The offers under discussion includes Javelin missiles, Stryker infantry vehicles, F-22 fighter aircrafts and C-130 transport aircrafts. 

Besides the weapon systems, civil nuclear projects are another area where the US industries could be interested in investing in India. The Joint Statement which is likely to be issued at the end of the meetings, will test the drafting ability of the Indian side to the fullest.

On the downside, illegal immigration from India and ongoing deportations have cast a shadow on the otherwise close and positive relationship underpinned by Modi’s personal equation with Trump. With more deportations of Indians entering illegally in the US on cards using military aircraft, the criticism by the opposition is expected to continue on the issue.

Deportation of ‘illegal aliens’, as the US calls the illegal immigrants, is a top campaign promise for Trump and observers in Delhi are aware that he will continue to cater to his support base on the issue. The approach was reflected in the tweet by US Border Police Chief W. Banks on February 5, where he claimed that the US has “successfully returned illegal aliens to India” in what he claimed as the “farthest deportation flight using military transport”, making it clear that Trump’s domestic political concerns will override India’s sensitivities for now.