Can Karnataka BJP bank on 'Modi magic' to help it retain power after Gujarat win?

The BJP’s thumping victory in the Gujarat assembly polls has sure enthused the party leaders and cadres in Karnataka, which goes to polls in five months. The saffron party in the state seems to be banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic to do wonders in the upcoming state polls. However, the BJP in Karnataka should perhaps be worried about the poll outcome in Himachal Pradesh, where the electorate has chosen to keep the “rivaj” (convention) of electing a new party every assembly polls intact.

Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai felt that the Gujarat results would impact the poll outcome in Karnataka next year. “BJP will retain power in Karnataka just like in Gujarat as the two states are similar in many aspects, be it the population, industries, education, culture or social composition. While other political parties have faced anti-incumbency, BJP in Gujarat is an exception as it has a pro-incumbency wave and has been elected for the seventh consecutive time now. The welfare schemes by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the organisational strength in Gujarat made this victory possible. People of Himachal Pradesh have stuck to the convention (of choosing a different party each election).” said Bommai.

While the mood is upbeat in the BJP camp over the Gujarat results, the “anti-incumbency” vote against the Jairam Thakur government should serve as a warning signal to the Bommai government in the state which is no stranger to a similar “rivaj” as Himachal Pradesh.

A closer look at Karnataka’s own track record in assembly polls shows that since 2004, barring the 2013 polls, no political party has got a clear majority. In 2008, the BJP under B.S. Yediyurappa, bagged only 110 seats (three short of a majority) and resorted to “Operation Lotus” to make good the loss, thus setting off a new trend in Indian politics —of poaching MLAs of the rival parties to attain a majority in case of a hung verdict. The stormy innings of the BJP saw three chief ministers—Yediyurappa (who stepped down over graft charges), followed by D.V. Sadananda Gowda and Jagadish Shettar (owing to infighting).

In 2013, the anti-incumbency vote against the saffron party reduced it to 40 seats with a voteshare (19.9 per cent) less than that of the JD(S) (20.2 per cent), while the Congress party bagged a clear majority with 122 seats and a vote share of 36.6 per cent.

Interestingly, the Congress suffered a major setback in 2018, when the Siddaramaiah government was voted out despite the populist pro-poor schemes (like Anna Bhagya). The Congress party got only 80 seats, though it had increased its voteshare to 38.14 per cent. Meanwhile, the BJP emerged as the single largest party with 104 seats with a voteshare of 36.35 per cent. The arch rivals – Congress and the JD(S)—came together to form a coalition government to keep the BJP out of power but only to felled by the BJP, which once again resorted to “Operation Lotus”. Yediyurappa became the chief minister after 17 MLAS of the Congress and the JD(S) crossed over to the BJP and the saffron party garnered majority in the 224-member assembly in the bypolls.

This time again, the Congress party is hopeful of a repeat of 2013. Besides the anti-incumbency factor, BJP’s old war horse Yediyurappa having been moved to the sidelines has certainly created a huge leadership vacuum within the BJP. The saffron party has failed to identify a worthy successor to the Lingayat strongman to hold on to the sizeable Lingayat votes.

While the BJP is hoping to cash in on the popularity of Modi and the central schemes that have impacted the lives of the common man, the Congress is weaving its election campaign around BJP’s “failures” and the alleged corruption charges (40 per cent commission), poor governance and slow-paced development.

CLP leader and former chief minister Siddaramaiah who contended that the poll outcome in one state would have no bearing on other states, also claimed that the Congress party could easily win the Karnataka polls even without a strategy.
“Karnataka today has the most corrupt government and the Congress has a strong organisational structure in the state. So, the Gujarat result will have little impact here. We had information that there is anti-incumbency against the ruling BJP in Himachal and it has been proven right. In Karnataka too, there is a strong anti-incumbency wave against the BJP. Unlike Gujarat, the Karnataka government is facing allegations of 40 per cent commission. Corruption and poor governance by the BJP will be important issues the coming elections,” said Siddaramaiah, who also alleged that AAP had been funded by the BJP to cut into Congress votes in Gujarat.

JD(S) leader and former chief minister H.D. Kumaraswamy attributed the BJP’s victory in Gujarat to the total absence of opposition parties in the state. “How can the BJP seek votes in Karnataka citing its victory in Gujarat? They have nothing (no development work) to boast of in the state. The party has been defeated in Himachal. The state elections will not be influenced by the election outcome of other states,” said Kumaraswamy.