Scindia pushes Congress into crisis in Madhya Pradesh. What happens next?

Will the BJP capitalise and attempt to topple the Kamal Nath government?

PTI6_3_2018_000036A Hostile act: Scindia’s relations with Nath and Digvijaya have deteriorated of late | PTI

The Congress government in Madhya Pradesh plunged into a crisis on Monday as a sulking Jyotiraditya Scindia, along with 17 MLAs, virtually revolted, prompting Chief Minister Kamal Nath to call a late-night cabinet meeting where around 20 ministers resigned, reposing faith in his leadership. The resignations are widely seen as an attempt to coax some of the malcontent MLAs back into the fold with the promise of cabinet posts. Nath alleged that the BJP was adopting immoral ways to "destabilise my government" and vowed not to let it happen. Scindia and the 17 legislators have gone incommunicado, sparking intense speculation about the fate of his government. Many of these legislators, including ministers, had flown to Bengaluru Monday morning.

CM Nath, who had met party president Sonia Gandhi earlier in the day, had cut short his Delhi visit and rushed to Bhopal where he called the urgent cabinet meeting at around 10pm. 

Why the tiff between Scindia and Nath?

Scindia and Nath have fallen out, mainly over the post of the state Congress president, which is currently held by the chief minister. Speculations and rumours over differences between Kamal Nath and Scindia have been making the rounds ever since Nath took over as the chief minister in December 2018. Scindia, many had believed, would be made the chief of MP Congress Committee soon after Congress formed government in the state. But 14 months hence, this has not happened.

Then came the latest episode—Rajya Sabha representation. Scindia had lost last year's Lok Sabha elections from Guna constituency, considered the pocket borough of his family. Since then, Scindia's supporters have been demanding that he be appointed as the state Congress chief. They have also been urging the party leadership to nominate him to the Rajya Sabha, as three seats of the Upper House of Parliament from the state are going to be vacated in April this year. One of these seats is currently represented by party veteran Digvijaya Singh, while two others by the BJP. Polling for the Rajya Sabha elections is scheduled on March 26. Scindia was among the front-runners for a Rajya Sabha seat. However, the fact that several other names, including that of Congress general secretary Priyanka Gandhi, were being floated by state Congress leaders made the scenario somewhat unpredictable.

Eventhough Scindia has repeatedly mentioned that he would not quit the Congress, there was no doubt in anybody's mind that discontentment was brewing within the party. The Kamal Nath-led Congress government in Madhya Pradesh has been marred all through the year by reports on differences between the top leaders, including the chief minister, Scindia and Digvijaya Singh. During this period, Scindia has been repeatedly making statements that were perceived as attacks on Congress government in the state, and rumours were always afloat about him and Kamal Nath not seeing eye to eye, though both the leaders have been refuting this.

Can the BJP capitalise?

The BJP, meanwhile, called a meeting of its MLAs today, where sources said Shivraj Singh Chouhan may be elected as the leader of the legislature party. There is a good chance the BJP could try to topple the Kamal Nath government. State BJP sources told The Indian Express that “the party is now ready to play the game” and that “the national leadership is in the loop”. But a senior party leader told the publication it was too early to say whether the state government would fall.

But, the BJP is grappling with troubles of its own. Their own legislators are gifting them some anxious moments. BJP MLA Narayan Tripathi had frequented Nath's residence last week and had, along with another legislator Sharad Kol, missed the saffron party's meet on March 3. Tripathi and Kol had gone against the party and voted in favour of a Congress-sponsored bill in the state Assembly in July last year.

What is the arithmetic in the Madhya Pradesh Assembly?

The Congress, which was voted to power in MP after 15 years in 2018, has 114 MLAs. The opposition BJP has 107 legislators. Four Independent MLAs, two lawmakers of the Bahujan Samaj Party and one legislator of the Samajwadi Party are supporting the Congress-led state government. As per the arithmetic in the 230-member Madhya Pradesh Assembly, the two parties are sure to win one Rajya Sabha seat each, but a tussle is likely for the third seat. Two Assembly seats are vacant following the demise of a Congress and a BJP legislator.

What happens next for the Congress?

A section of Congress leaders, mostly of Kamal Nath camp, demanded that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra be nominated from the state for the upcoming Rajya Sabha polls, seen by many as an attempt to thwart Scindia's chance to reach the Upper House.

Nath, who left for Delhi on Sunday night, was supposed to come back to Bhopal on March 12 after celebrating Holi, but returned after meeting Sonia Gandhi in the national capital, and went into a huddle with Digvijay Singh and other senior leaders at his residence, before calling the cabinet meeting. After the meeting with Gandhi, Nath said any decision on the party's nominees for Rajya Sabha polls would be taken unanimously.

"All issues were discussed with the Congress president and everything will be resolved unanimously," he told reporters in Delhi. The Madhya Pradesh chief minister, however, skirted the issue of whether Scindia can be nominated for the Rajya Sabha seat from the state.

Even as the government appeared to be on a sticky wicket, Public Relations Minister P.C. Sharma claimed, "It will last its full five-year term and there was no political crisis." "We have handed over our resignations to the chief minister at the cabinet meeting," another minister Sajjan Singh Verma told reporters, adding that it was to express their solidarity with Nath.

Earlier, Nath told the cabinet meeting, "I will not allow [anyone] to destabilise my government with the help of mafia." "I have dedicated all my life to serving the people, but the BJP has indulged in immoral ways to destabilise my government. My biggest strength is people's faith and their love showered on me. I will not allow anyone destabilise the government elected by the people," he said.

-Inputs from PTI, Sravani Sarkar

📣 The Week is now on Telegram. Click here to join our channel (@TheWeekmagazine) and stay updated with the latest headlines