Jhabua by-poll in MP: Congress, BJP likely to fall back on ex-MLAs

Both the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP are likely to fall back on their respective former MLAs for the Jhabua assembly constituency by-poll, scheduled for October 21.

With the date of election announced on Saturday and just over a week to go for the last day of filing nominations (September 30), both the parties will have to hasten the process of candidate selection.

Sources in the parties told THE WEEK that Javier Medha, who had won on a Congress ticket from the constituency in 2008, and Shanitlal Bilawal of the BJP, who defeated Medha in 2013, might be the respective choices.

Jhabua by-election is important for the Congress in the sense that the party, with 114 MLAs, is two short of majority in the house. If it wins the by-election from the seat earlier held by the BJP, its count will inch closer to majority mark.

The BJP has its reputation at stake as it had won the seat comfortably in the 2018 assembly polls. However, the seat fell vacant after MLA G.S. Damor got elected to the Lok Sabha in 2019 elections.

The main ticket aspirants for the scheduled tribe (ST) reserved seat in Congress are Medha and veteran Kantilal Bhuria. Medha contested as a rebel in 2018 elections after he was denied ticket by the party and garnered as much as 35,943 votes while the Congress candidate Vikrant Bhuria (son of Kantilal Bhuria) lost by 10,437 votes to Damor.

Medha was expelled from the party for this rebellion, but was taken back in the fold ahead of the Lok Sabha polls.

Senior Bhuria is himself seeking a ticket from the constituency as he had secured a lead of around 8,000 votes here in the Lok Sabha polls despite losing to Damor from the Ratlam seat.

Sources said Bhuria might be placated with assurance of Rajya Sabha berth or promise of better political prospects for his son Vikrant Bhuria. Therefore, the ticket might go to Medha who is the best bet for the party, sources said.

As for the BJP, the party is likely to wait for the Congress move on the ticket to decide its candidate. The saffron party is hoping that the infighting in Congress might give it a better chance to win again. If Medha is denied a ticket by the Congress, then the BJP might even aim to field someone from his family, sources said. However, the more likely candidate is ex-MLA Shantilal Bilawal who had defeated Medha in 2013 by about 15,500 votes, sources mentioned.

As of now, it looks like a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP. The element of Jai Adiwasi Yuva Sangathan (JAYS), whose leader Hiralal Alawa won the assembly polls of 2018 on a Congress ticket from Manawar in Dhar district, might have played a spoiler with Alawa threatening to field independent candidate for the election if their demands were not met. However, after a meeting with Chief Minister Kamal Nath earlier this month, the issue cooled off.

Local sources said even JAYS, basically an organisation of tribal youth, is witnessing an internal strife and that might blunt off its chances to cause a big dent in the vote share of the ruling Congress.

“Our booth level preparations are on and senior leaders of the state unit of party have already attended a workers' convention in Jhabua. Feedback seeking is also continuing. We are hopeful that the candidate selection will be done soon with a meeting between state president, organisation general secretary and other senior leaders like former chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar,” Rajneesh Agrawal, spokesman of the BJP told THE WEEK.

Congress spokesperson Pankaj Chaturvedi said the candidate for Jhabua by-polls will be announced at the right time, and given the work done by Kamal Nath government in the state, the party is sure of a comfortable win from the constituency.