The May 23 bypoll results has signaled a relief for the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu. The ruling dispensation, which was short of five MLAs to stabilise the government, won from nine out of the 22 assembly constituencies which went for bypolls on April 18.
Despite the victory, the AIADMK has no reason to rejoice, as its vote share in has drastically come down in the Lok Sabha polls. From being the single largest party in the state with more than 44 per cent vote share, the AIADMK’s vote bank has come down to 18 per cent.
The party now needs a self-evaluation similar to the ones done by MGR and Jayalalithaa during 1980 and 2004 respectively. Immediately after an election drubbing in 1980 and 2004, the two leaders were quick to comprehend the reason for the defeat and correct its course to win back the votes.
The AIADMK, which polled 44 per cent votes in 2014 Lok Sabha pols, witnessed a 59 per cent drop in its vote share in the state. The party, which contested from 21 Lok Sabha constituencies in an alliance with the BJP, PMK and others, has polled 18.48 per cent votes—the worst in the last 47 years since its inception. In 2004, when Jayalalithaa drew a blank, the party which was again in alliance with the BJP and others, polled 29.77 per cent votes. Despite a big victory, the DMK’s vote share in 2004 was only 24.6 per cent. The vote share considerably increased in 2006 even when Jayalalithaa sat in the opposition, to 32 per cent.
However, AIADMK seniors feel that the all-time low vote percentage has nothing to do with the Dhinakaran factor. “There is no vertical or horizontal split as discussed by the media and others. People have not accepted T.T.V. Dhinakaran. The AIADMK is intact under Edappadi K. Palanisami and O. Panneerselvam,” said AIADMK minister D. Jayakumar.
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Nonetheless, party insiders, from the cadres to office bearers THE WEEK spoke to, on conditions of anonymity, expressed their grief and said the party needs a self-evaluation. “The AIADMK leaders now feel that they have overcome T.T.V. Dhinakaran and they are happy for that. But the party has actually lost among the people. We need a single strong and a charismatic leader. People may know EPS and OPS, but they can’t make MGR or Jayalalithaa,” senior journalist Durai Karna said.
The AIADMK, which witnessed an infighting after the death of Jayalalithaa in December 2016, doesn’t seem to have overcome the factional feud within the party. The party, which witnessed a thumping victory in the Theni parliamentary constituency, lost in the bypolls in Andipatti and the Periyakulam assembly segments which come under Theni Lok Sabha constituency. Andipatti is considered an AIADMK bastion from where Jayalalithaa and MGR won several times, and Periyakulam is the home town of Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam. In Salem, which is the home constituency of Palanisami, the DMK made inroads with a major margin after a decade. “They lost in chief minister’s home town Edappadi itself,” said DMK’s Siva Jayaraj.
AIADMK’s drubbing, sources in the party say, came from within, combined with several other factors like the alliance, anti-Modi campaign by the opposition parties and also the double anti-incumbency factor. Sources in the party say the factional feud within the party is at an all time high. “For outsiders, it may seem like everything is well inside the party. But the cadres are not happy and there was no field work even during the election. The results make this apparent,” said K.C. Palanismai. In fact, the AIADMK, which is run by the duo who share the rhyming initials- EPS and OPS, is yet to constitute the 11-member steering committee which will govern the party. At the time of merger, while OPS was appointed the coordinator and EPS the joint coordinator of the party, it was decided that a 11-member steering committee will be constituted to guide the party. “There is no inner party democracy. It should be restored. My petition for general secretary election is still pending in the Delhi High court,” said K.C. Palanisami.
