The fact that BJP would lose seats in the Hindi heartland was amply clear from the 2018 assembly election results from states like Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, and the formidable caste coalition that SP and BSP had managed to stitch up. To recuperate the losses, it was assumed that the BJP would look east, especially West Bengal. As the exit poll results emerged, it was clear that the BJP had managed the same. In 2014, out of the total 42, TMC had won 34 seats, BJP and Left won two each, and the Congress won four seats. However, if the larger trends of the exit polls are to be taken at face value, the BJP will manage to break into two-digit figures, a headache for CM Mamata Banerjee. Times Now-VMR gave the TMC 28 seats, the BJP 11 and Congress 2 seats. CVoter gave TMC 29, BJP 11 and Congress 2 seats. Only Jan Ki Baat stood apart from the rest, giving BJP 22 seats and the TMC only 17.
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The Election Commission on Wednesday had ordered campaigning in nine West Bengal constituencies to end at 10 pm on Thursday, a day before its scheduled deadline, in the wake of violence between BJP and TMC workers in Kolkata. In a hurriedly-convened press conference, Deputy Election Commissioner Chandra Bhushan Kumar said it was for the first time that such an action has been taken using constitutional powers of the poll panel.
The EC's action came a day after parts of Kolkata witnessed wide-spread violence during BJP president Amit Shah's massive road show in Kolkata. A bust of 19th century Bengali icon Ishwar Chandra Vidyasagar was also vandalised during the violence. "This is for the first time such a measure has been taken using the EC's constitutional powers. But this is not going to be the last," Kumar said, referring to curtailment of campaigning period.
Mamata reportedly has ambitions of leading a coalition government at the Centre, for which she has to win most of the 42 seats from West Bengal. Many parts of the state, however, have seen a saffron surge during the election campaign. Leaving nothing to chance, the chief minister has gone on a fierce barnstorming across the state, much like she had done when she was opposition leader two terms ago.
Mamata knows her Trinamool party is nothing without her. Wherever she goes, the street-fighter is met with saffron flags of the BJP, the Vishva Hindu Parishad and the Bajrang Dal. Such is the popular mood in Bengal that Mamata has apparently told her lieutenants to adopt soft Hindutva.
The saffronisation of Bengal began soon after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP deployed RSS stalwarts Kailash Vijayvargiya and Shiv Prakash as state in-charges. The duo strengthened RSS branches and even the VHP and Bajrang Dal.
In the past five years, the RSS has opened 3,000 branches in the state and many schools in far-flung villages and tribal areas. Numerous shakhas with school and college students as members also came up.
“They have spread no doubt,” said state minister Siddiqullah Chowdhury. “They are fighting Mamata as no other leader in India has done what she has done to Hindu radicals. If they get a large number of seats, it would be most unfortunate for us, our government and the state.”
-Inputs from PTI, Rabi Banerjee