After some intense drama, the Congress finally announced the second Lok Sabha seat from which party president Rahul Gandhi would be running—Wayanad in northern Kerala. No surprises there, because Wayanad had been speculated upon in the media for almost a fortnight now. And, on April 4, he formally submitted his nomination papers.
In certain quarters in the opposition, Rahul’s decision has caused some discomfort. The left leadership, from CPI(M) general secretary Sitaram Yechuri to Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, questioned the message Rahul and Congress are sending by fighting the left than the BJP. Sections of the leftist intelligentsia and even Congress leaders like former Maharashtra Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan said that Rahul’s candidature might undermine opposition unity efforts. However, this argument is misplaced in many ways and is indicative of a lack of understanding of the micro variables that make this decision. Rahul’s decision has to be viewed taking into consideration the political scenario at the national level and the undercurrents in Kerala politics, a state where the Congress is still a force to be reckoned with.
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Expecting some reversals from the saturation point of 2014 in western and northern India, the BJP under the Modi-Shah leadership is focusing on the east, northeast and the south to make up for the losses. Among the three regions, the Congress is best placed in the south. The party cannot afford to yield any further space to the BJP in the region. With the alliances in Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, the party seems well placed to hold on to and improve from the 2014 performance. If the party could win close to 50 seats from south India—a tall order that is not impossible—that would make it easier to then negotiate with parties, like the YSR Congress and the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, that are expected to do well in their respective states.
Of greater importance are political undercurrents in Kerala, the best performing state for Congress in 2014. Following the Sabarimala controversy, political undercurrents are very strong in the state. The BJP, already on an upward curve since 2014, is hoping for a big breakthrough in these elections. At least in two constituencies, Thiruvananthapuram and Pathanamthitta, where Sabarimala is situated, the BJP is giving sitting Congress legislators a tough fight. Despite all the talk of opposition unity, by putting up strong candidates, the left has not helped the Congress case at all. The choice of candidates has further strengthened a perception among Congress supporters that Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan would not mind if the BJP made some electoral success in Kerala at the expense of the Congress, as the left can then consolidate the minority vote bank in the long run.
This is perceived as yet another attempt on the lines of the politics of strategic alliances (Adavu Nayam) and the eventually ill-fated alliance with the PDP in 2009. The Congress-led UDF has always had a strong hold on the state’s minority population. Since 2014 itself, a significant section of the upper caste social base of the Congress has shifted to the BJP, and following Sabarimala, the BJP seems to have made further gains among these sections. The Congress in Kerala is hoping that Rahul’s entry would stop further erosion among these social groups.
Even more importantly, the Congress would want to send a message to the minorities that it is the Congress and not the left that is best placed to take on the BJP. By contesting from the state, that too from a constituency with a sizeable minority population, Rahul and the Congress are also trying to address the battle of perceptions that can have significant electoral consequences beyond 2019.
Rahul’s Wayanad candidature has to be viewed in the backdrop of the general Congress strategy. The bleeding hearts might want Congress to put together all kinds of opposition alliances, even at its own cost, to defeat Modi. But Rahul seems to be clear that a Congress revival in the long run and the immediate electoral goals of 2019 have to go together.
Through a well-strategised candidature, the Congress wants to balance immediate electoral targets with the party’s own interests beyond 2019. In an election where Narendra Modi and BJP remain a very tough opponent to beat, and with frenemies like the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Left prioritising their own interests, such a strategy makes perfect sense.
The writer is assistant professor of political science, Lady Shri Ram College for Women, New Delhi.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the publication.
