Congress-TDP split: Too late to reverse the effect?

In Indian politics, breakups are usually bitter. There would be a lot of bad blood between political parties when they decide to part ways as it often ends with either wild accusations or mud-slinging. But not in the case of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the Congress, who have decided to contest on their own in the upcoming elections in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. The two parties are part of the Mahagatbandhan, dubbed as an anti-Modi front, with AP Chief Minister and TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu playing the role of an architect trying to bring the regional parties together. The decision to go solo was amicably taken after Chandrababu met Congress president Rahul Gandhi in Delhi.

The latest posturing would not have any impact on the minds of the voters, either in Telangana or in AP. It will be widely assumed that though the two parties will contest alone, they are still together in spirit and will be in the same coalition in case the need arises. The only good part for the TDP and the Congress is that they can go ahead and contest all seats without having to go through the grind of adjusting seats for each other. This may bring cheers to their respective partymen and ticket aspirants. It is clear that the two parties had taken this decision keeping in mind each other's interests, so that the TDP can benefit in AP and the Congress in Telangana.

The just concluded assembly elections in Telangana have shown that people have rejected the TDP-Congress combination as they won only 21 out of 119 seats. As expected, the state Congress leaders blamed the TDP for their loss and expressed their reluctance to team up again in Parliament elections. It is important to know that the Congress has a greater presence and bigger vote share in Telangana than the TDP. The Congress leaders feel that without an alliance they can come out of Naidu’s shadow and seek support from the public claiming that the tie-up was a mistake. This, they believe, will improve their chances of winning in Telangana where the TRS is as strong as ever.  

On the other hand, the situation in AP is different. The TDP and the Congress stand on the extreme sides of representation in the assembly. The ruling TDP had won more than 100 seats out of 175 in 2014 while Congress won zero as the anger of bifurcation was directed at them. Naidu had taken a big risk of extending a hand of friendship to the Congress after exiting the NDA. Had the Telangana experiment been successful, Chandrababu would have considered sharing seats with the Congress. The TDP would have also attempted to convince voters to support the Congress so as to achieve a special category status for AP. But, it looks like Naidu wants to play safe in parliament and state elections which will be held simultaneously. 

According to sources, the TDP will do their best to support the Congress candidates in seats where the main opposition party, the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP), is strong. The plan of TDP camp is simple—to increase the vote share of the Congress and help them get anti-incumbency votes that otherwise would have landed in the YSRCP’s kitty. Leaders of both the TDP and the Congress agree that the latter is in a better shape than in 2014 elections because of which they are confident that the plan will work out. Since there are two more opposition parties—the BJP and the Jana Sena of actor Pawan Kalyan—the TDP is confident that opposition votes will be split and this will help them in winning assembly and Parliament seats. One more concern that seems to have been addressed is that of vote transfer between the TDP and the Congress which did not work as expected in Telangana elections. 

While this plan may look hopeful for the TDP and the Congress, it has every chance of backfiring. By contesting the elections in Telangana together, the friendship between the two parties have been exposed. Splitting for temporary gains for 2019 elections may not find favour with all the voters. The latest development will prove right the general impression about Naidu that he is an opportunist who teams up with political parties and walks out of alliances as per his convenience. It will entirely depend on how voters react to the moves of the leaders.  

This is one game that can go either way for both the parties.