After his month-long stay in a Delhi hospital, former Chhattisgarh chief minister and Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) supremo Ajit Jogi is back in Chhattisgarh politics with a bang. The first thing Jogi did after being discharged from Medanta Hospital was to meet BSP chief Mayawati, triggering speculation that his party may align with the BSP.
The 90-member Chhattisgarh Assembly initially had 39 Congress MLAs and 49 BJP legislators. However, three MLAs from the Congress switched sides to Jogi's new party two years back. The Congress had polled 40.3 per cent votes and BJP just 41 per cent in the last assembly polls in 2013. In terms of statistics, therefore, the Congress holds a very strong chance of dislodging the 15-year-old government of the BJP's Raman Singh.
However, with Jogi, a former Congress leader, forming a separate outfit named Janta Congress Chhattisgarh, the might of the Congress in Chhattisgarh is now divided. Jogi left the Congress in 2016 to form his own party. Jogi, who was the first and only Congress chief minister of the state, holds immense sway over the Satnami scheduled caste community. Approximately, 12 per cent of Chhattisgarh's population consists of scheduled castes, of which nearly 75 per cent are Satnamis.
Recently, the Jogi-Mayawati meeting triggered speculation that these two leader-oriented parties may go in for an alliance in the state where the Congress is planning to go it alone. Jogi has announced over 26 candidates of his party for the coming assembly polls. Jogi declared himself as the candidate against Singh.
Interestingly, Jogi who is a formidable leader in Chhattisgarh, is leaving no stone unturned to make things difficult for the Congress.
If Jogi’s party contests the election independently, it will affect the fortunes of the Congress as the division of votes will help the BJP candidates sail through. Though AICC general secretary in-charge of Chhattisgarh P.L. Punia has repeatedly ruled out any alliance with Jogi’s party, political observers feel that Janta Congress Chhattisgarh will damage the prospects of the Congress. Results in over two dozen seats in the plains of Raipur-Bilaspur-Janjgir will be directly impacted if opposition parties stay splintered.
When BSP was on the rise in the 1990s, Bilaspur-Janjgir was the region that was chosen by dalit leader Kanshiram to contest his first Lok Sabha polls along with Gurdaspur in Punjab.
In addition to Jogi’s JCC, BSP and the Gondwana Ganatantra Party (GGP) have some pockets of influence in Chhattisgarh. In the last assembly polls, BSP polled 4.3 per cent of votes and had one MLA, while GGP polled 1.6 per cent of votes.
However, the Congress is adamant on not having an alliance with Jogi’s party as it considers him to be a “traitor” who ditched the party on a number of occasions, said a senior leader. There is a perception among Congress members that because of Jogi’s presence in the party in the past, many 'neutral' and middle-class voters ran away from the party.
After quitting the Congress in 2016, Jogi launched his new party in Kabirdham district, which is the home turf of Chief Minister Singh.
Jogi was the first chief minister of the state, but his position at the top did not last long. The 2003 defeat of the Congress in Chhattisgarh was attributed to Jogi’s chief ministership. Since then, the Congress high command has kept him away from the reins of the state Congress.
After hibernating for nearly 15 years, Jogi is now throwing open a challenge to the state unit of the Congress while promising to put an end to the Raman Singh regime. Jogi has been branded as a ‘spoiler’ by the Congress, but his strong influence among a section of the electorate may dampen the hopes of the grand old party in Chhattisgarh.