The world is going through a prolonged and unseasonal cyclonic storm. US President Donald Trump is the eye of the cyclone and is literally driving the storm singlehandedly. While laying outrageous claims on the real estates of other sovereign nations and even making subtle threats of military action to secure them, he is also desperately claiming a Nobel Peace Prize, quoting his hand in every war that is being fought or was fought in the past.
Trump has publicly asserted that he will not let anything come in the way of what he considers America’s security needs and also the country’s access to resources it considers essential. He is shaking the world far more violently than any other individual in modern history. He is a man possessed, in pursuit of his professed objectives. There is no distinction between friends and foes, allies and adversaries. It often appears that even the closest US allies are being wrong-footed at every step through deliberately designed actions and are being forced into perpetual firefighting mode. China and Russia are the only ones in less quake-prone territory.
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Amidst this global turmoil, the Dollar and oil are also playing a quiet role. The global crude oil production in 2025, as per the International Energy Agency, was around 105 million barrels, worth about $ 3 trillion. The US was the biggest producer, with an output of about 20 million barrels a day, followed by Saudi Arabia with about 11 million, Russia (10 million), Canada (6 million), Iran (close to 5 million) and Iraq, UAE and China each producing about 4 million barrels a day. In 2024, the three largest oil importers, China, the US and India imported about 13 million barrels, 8 million barrels, and 6 million barrels a day, respectively. Although the US exports about 10 million barrels oil a day, it also imports about 7 to 8 million barrels a day. This is because, while much of US refineries are built to process heavy crude, its domestic oil production through fracking is predominantly light crude.
Russia’s oil exports stand at 5 to 6 million barrels a day. Iran has the capacity to increase its oil output to about 7 to 8 million barrels a day from today’s 3 to 4 million barrels a day. Iran had touched a production of around 6 million barrels a day in the 1970’s. Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, but its production has been curtailed to under one million barrels a day now. If a dramatic geopolitical turnaround takes place and necessary investments are made, Venezuela’s output can be increased to 3 to 4 million a day in the next 8 to10 years. Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports are severely curtailed due to US sanctions.
The power game being played by President Trump, whether in Gaza,Iran, Syria, Ukraine and Venezuela and his outrage against Greenland, Canada, France, Europe, UN etc. combined with his global tariff war have effectively collapsed the existing norms of world order. The United Nation’s plunge into irrelevance has been hastened. Global warming and climate actions are being mocked at and dumped. WTO is pushed into ignominy. NATO is fractured beyond recognition. Elected leaders of countries are kidnapped with impunity. Constitutionally formed governments in sister democracies are openly threatened and toppled. At this rate, it may be just a question of time before Trump looks at the African continent and other regions in his atlas. President Trump has unilaterally assigned himself the authority to dictate terms to the world. A board has been constituted, ostensibly for peace, which he will preside over for life. He appoints members and lays down the membership fees himself. It seems more like a corporate board for making deals than a peace and reconstruction initiative. Despite that, there are leaders accepting the membership offer gleefully.
Getting rid of the US dollar’s clout is entering in the wish list of an increasing number of countries as a result of this unprecedented belligerence. But the free access and easy convertibility of the US dollar, its universal acceptability and its stature as the preeminent global investment currency continue to keep the dollar as the established global store of value. So, while clearly, the dollar is gradually losing its sheen and influence, its replacement as the global currency of choice will take time.
In the backdrop of what Trump is doing, China comes across as a mature, balanced, dignified, and statesmanly world power. While President Trump has been on a worldwide disruptive mission mode, China has not uttered a single irresponsible word nor taken a single outwardly irresponsible step. Even when Trump singles out China for his verbal assaults, the Chinese response has been well measured and well founded, and in conformity with diplomatic niceties. Also, Trump’s erratic actions may have done more for China than all that China has been trying to achieve through coercion and demonstration of power, especially in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan context.
Iran’s Geo-strategic location, combined with its oil resources, nuclear programme and the heightened geopolitics surrounding the country, has made it as much a quagmire for the US and the West.
The all-encompassing list of sanctions has further pushed Iran deep into the Chinese corner. The only door open for Iran now is the door to China, making the situation tailor-made for Beijing. All that it needs to do is to play its cards well, and China seems to be doing just that, without displaying any involvement in the Iran crisis in any manner. China seemingly wields enough influence on Iran to raise and lower Iran’s nuclear ante at its behest. Iran also provides China a significant source for its oil needs, that too at the cheapest possible cost, bypassing the dollar payment system and vulnerable shipping routes. A West-sanctioned Iran, which can keep its internal situation and its overt nuclear pursuit below the threshold, is a great asset for China. That is the situation that China would endeavour to maintain.
The cultural contrast is stark; on the one hand, we have the superpower bully, which looks at things only through the prism of deal-making for its own interests, and on the other, we have a rising civilisational power which pursues equally dirty goals, but with finesse.
Even the developed West, which found comfort and flourished in the security of the US shadows and had come to take this comfort for granted, has been chased out of the shadows. There seems to be little choice for the world. The Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s words in Davos were prophetic when he urged the middle powers to come together and stand up to the bully, saying, “If you are not on the table, you will be on the menu”.
(Lt. Gen. CA Krishnan retired as deputy chief of army staff)
(The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of THE WEEK)
