Economic Survey pegs India's GDP growth at 6.8-7.2% in FY2027

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday tabled the Economic Survey of India in Parliament for the financial year 2025–26, two days ahead of the presentation of the Union Budget on February 1.

The survey, regarded as the country’s official annual report card on the state of the economy, projected that India’s GDP growth in FY27 is likely to remain in the range of 6.8 per cent to 7.2 per cent.

It noted that growth remains resilient, driven primarily by strong domestic demand, even as the global economic environment continues to be fragile. The survey said India’s growth is holding up better than expected compared to many other economies, though risks remain elevated amid ongoing global uncertainties.

"With domestic drivers playing a dominant role and macroeconomic stability well anchored, the balance of risks around growth remains broadly even," it said. 

India’s external stability continues to be a key strength of the economy, helping the country remain relatively insulated from global volatility, the survey noted. However, it cautioned that the impact of global shocks could surface with a lag, underscoring the need for policymakers to remain vigilant.

The survey said the ongoing trade talks with the United States are expected to conclude during the year, a development that could help reduce uncertainty on the external front.

India and the US have already held six rounds of negotiations to reach an agreement, but the talks suffered a setback after US President Donald Trump imposed a 50 per cent tariff on Indian goods in August last year.

The survey noted that slower growth in key trading partners, tariff-induced disruptions to trade and volatility in capital flows could intermittently weigh on exports and investor sentiment.

According to the survey, the rise in automobile exports reflects the growing acceptance of India-manufactured vehicles in global markets.

It said that more than 53 lakh vehicles were exported across passenger, commercial, two-wheeler and three-wheeler segments in FY25, with the sector posting double-digit growth in the first half of FY26.

The industry has also recorded nearly 33 per cent growth in production over the past decade, from FY15 to FY25.