Global crude oil prices have eased slightly despite dramatic US military action in Venezuela, as traders judge that the world is still well supplied and that any disruption to flows from the South American producer will be limited in the near term.
Benchmark Brent crude futures were last down about 0.7 per cent at 60.33 dollars a barrel on Monday, moving between small gains and losses as markets digested the weekend’s events and an OPEC+ decision to keep output unchanged.
Analysts say the initial reaction shows that fears of a sudden supply shock are muted, even after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and US President Donald Trump said Venezuela would be placed under temporary American control.
OPEC+ policy and ample supply
Traders are also watching the latest OPEC+ vote, where the producer group opted to hold output steady rather than cut or raise production in response to the Venezuelan turmoil. Earlier reports and forecasts for 2026 had already flagged a potential oversupply driven by record US production, steady OPEC+ exports and softer demand growth, especially in China, factors that tend to cap prices even when geopolitics flare up.
Energy strategists are of the opinion that unless the US move leads to a broader regional conflict or direct blockades affecting major shipping lanes, Brent is more likely to stay in a roughly 60–65 dollar range in the short term than to spike sharply higher. Previous Venezuela-related sanctions and tanker moves under Trump caused only brief price jumps that faded as alternative supplies adjusted.
Longer-term uncertainty still lingers
While spot prices are calm, experts caution that the political shock could reshape Venezuela’s oil sector over several years. If a durable regime change eventually leads to sanctions being eased and large foreign investments, Venezuelan output could rise and add more barrels to the market.
But if history is anything to estimate trends, regime changes like in Iraq and Libya can just as easily lead to long-lasting instability and supply disruptions if security deteriorates.
