On October 21, Sanjay Nishad brought his supporters to Delhi’s Talkatora Stadium with a message for his own ally. The NISHAD Party president, also a minister in the Uttar Pradesh government, wanted the fishing community and its sub-castes to be included in the scheduled castes list. “Reservation is not charity, it is our right,” he told the crowd, adding that if the demand was not met, his party might be forced to “reconsider”.
Notably, he was careful not to suggest that his party would leave the NDA.
The rally was a signal to his supporters that he was pressuring the ally while retaining the political space that the alliance had given his party. In return, he could help the ruling NDA secure the votes of fishing communities spread across more than 160 of the state’s 403 assembly constituencies.
In the run-up to the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, due in February, this is the position of several smaller parties as they haggle for seats in return for the votes they can deliver. In the evolving politics of identity, it is no longer possible for bigger parties to win all seats on their own. Hence, smaller and regional parties have emerged as kingmakers.
For them, the immediate objective is to secure a share of power to tell their communities that only a place in government will allow them to get “justice”. That explains their willingness to move between political camps, even when the alliances they join have sharply different ideological positions.
The arithmetic of the past two elections explains why these parties believe they have room to bargain. In the 2022 assembly elections, the BJP won 255 of the 403 seats with 41.29 per cent of the vote. The Samajwadi Party won 111 with 32.06 per cent. The BJP’s allies, Apna Dal (Sonelal) and the NISHAD Party, helped take the NDA’s tally to 273. The Samajwadi Party-led alliance, which included the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), won 125. The SBSP won six and the RLD, eight. Both parties are now with the BJP.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections, however, showed how quickly the balance can change. The INDIA bloc won 43 of 80 seats; the NDA, 36. The narrow gap in vote share—the NDA got 43.69 per cent; the INDIA bloc, 43.52 per cent—has made smaller parties believe that their support could influence closely fought battles.
For Nishad, the demand for reservation is central to his party’s identity. Its supporters are from the Nishad, Mallah and Kewat communities, whose traditional jobs are associated with rivers and fishing, particularly in eastern Uttar Pradesh. Nishad claims to have given his community a political edge by floating a party and winning elections. His demand is simple: give the NISHAD Party the seats the BJP lost, like it did in 2022, when he won 11 of 16 seats given to him.
Another NDA ally, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, led by Om Prakash Rajbhar, is also looking to turn its community base into political leverage. Betting on his support base—the Rajbhar community in eastern Uttar Pradesh—he has asked for 82 seats.
After leaving the Samajwadi Party-led alliance in 2022, Rajbhar accused it of fielding its own candidates on the SBSP symbol in 13 seats. Rajbhar’s journey illustrates the flexibility with which smaller parties approach alliances.
For the BJP, the road to the polls is paved with tough negotiations with allies. The strongest of which, in terms of seats, is the Apna Dal (Sonelal), led by Union Minister Anupriya Patel. It contested 17 assembly seats in 2022 and won 12. Patel also retained the Mirzapur Lok Sabha seat in 2024. The party’s support base is largely Kurmis, who make up 3 to 4 per cent of the state’s population and are considered one of the more influential OBC groups after the Yadavs.
MLA Ram Niwas Verma, the party’s leader in the assembly, told THE WEEK that seat-sharing talks would be decided by the party’s national president.
Interestingly, the BJP recently appointed Pankaj Chaudhary, a Kurmi leader, as its state president, causing concern within the Apna Dal (S).
Verma, however, argued that the Apna Dal’s support was not confined to one community or region. Its organisation was spread across the state, he said, and its support base extended to more than 200 constituencies. “We are not just a party for one specific caste,” he said. He argued that the party spoke for backward classes, Kshatriyas and farmers, and added that regional parties were “closely aligned with public sentiments” and could not be ignored.
One such party is the Jayant Chaudhary-led Rashtriya Lok Dal, which has the support of Jats and farmers in western Uttar Pradesh. The Jat vote is considered decisive in 20 to 30 constituencies.
The RLD’s bargaining position in 2027 might be different from what it enjoyed in 2022, when it was part of the opposition alliance. It might get half the seats this time.
Chaudhary’s shift to the NDA made him a Union minister, while Rajbhar made it to the Yogi Adityanath cabinet. For these parties, joining the ruling alliance has brought access to power as well as the opportunity to press for their demands from within.
The bargaining is even more dynamic in the opposition camp. Pallavi Patel—Anupriya’s sister and leader of the rival Apna Dal (Kamerawadi)—defeated Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya in Sirathu in the 2022 assembly election. She contested on a Samajwadi Party ticket. The alliance then soured in 2024, but the two are now in talks again. The Samajwadi Party might give seats to the Apna Dal (K) from its quota after its alliance talks with the Congress.
The Congress itself is seeking more seats. Reports suggest that it wants between 150 and 200, but the Samajwadi Party would not want to offer more than 70. This might complicate efforts to keep the INDIA bloc united.
It is in this space that veteran OBC leader Swami Prasad Maurya is trying to secure a place for himself. Maurya has moved between the Bahujan Samaj Party, the BJP and the Samajwadi Party, and is now looking to enter the INDIA bloc through the Congress. His Apni Janta Party had participated in the INDIA bloc’s Ramlila Maidan rally on November 1. Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav is strongly opposed to Maurya’s entry into the alliance, but the Congress might allot him seats from its own quota or field his candidates on its symbol.
Another significant player is Chandrashekhar Azad, who wants to move into the space left by a receding Mayawati. His Aazad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) is keen on a place in the opposition camp, but has yet to secure an arrangement with either the Samajwadi Party or the Congress. The Nagina MP has said that his party plans to contest all 403 seats. A more practical target would be around 15. “The party has appointed in-charges for 87 constituencies in phases,” said party spokesperson Yusuf Ansari. “Our preference is to select candidates from dalit, backward-class and OBC communities. The doors for alliances are open from our side. The Samajwadi Party already has an arrangement with the Congress, and any decision on including the Aazad Samaj Party would depend on the existing partners. There have also been discussions about a third front, but nothing concrete has emerged.”
The party’s next major event is the Constitution Day rally on November 26 at the Ramabai Ambedkar Maidan in Lucknow. The choice of venue is significant because Mayawati had previously used this venue for large BSP gatherings. If Azad can fill the venue, it would be a sign of where the dalit voters might go.
The Aazad Samaj Party had allied with Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen in the Bihar elections. While such an arrangement could consolidate Muslim and dalit votes in Uttar Pradesh, the association with the AIMIM could affect Azad’s appeal among Hindu voters. This is also the concern the Samajwadi Party has.
A new entrant in the fray is Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), which has been looking to expand its presence in Uttar Pradesh. Its likely target is the non-Jatav dalit vote, particularly the Pasi community in Awadh.
As the elections get closer, it seems everyone wants a piece of the pie. And in the coming weeks, there could be a lot more churn in the alliance space in Uttar Pradesh. After all, the journey of a kingmaker is sometimes more interesting than that of a king.
