‘Immigration is now a liability for Trump’: Muzaffar A. Chishti

The US midterm elections may have altered the balance of power in Washington, but a significant shift in immigration policy is unlikely in the immediate future. Even as President Donald Trump’s anti-immigrant stance faces growing public resistance, Indian professionals are confronting a more fundamental challenge: the restructuring of the US technology industry by artificial intelligence. Muzaffar Chishti of the Washington, DC-based Migration Policy Institute (MPI) explains the political constraints on immigration reform and why Indian families must rethink the costs and prospects of an American education. Excerpts from the interview:

Q/ Now that the midterms are over, how much scope is there for a change in US immigration policy?

Even though they have made big gains in both the House and the Senate, Democrats will still need Republican support to pass immigration legislation. The president can also veto legislation, and overriding a veto requires a two-thirds majority in Congress. It is therefore a complicated scenario.

This is not a parliamentary system where a change in government can suddenly lead to a complete reversal of policy. Much will depend on how quickly Trump loses his grip on the Republican Party and how much influence the party allows him to retain. He is clearly becoming a lame-duck president, and the question is how quickly the effects of that become evident. Between now and 2028, this will be an important political development to watch. The midterms will also influence congressional committee chairmanships, the extent of investigations and oversight and the balance of power within Congress.

Q/ Is there growing bipartisan recognition that US immigration laws need reform?

Congress ultimately decides who can come into the country. The president can adopt more punitive enforcement policies, but he cannot independently decide who is allowed to immigrate. Immigration laws have not undergone a major change since 1990, which is an extraordinarily long time. There is considerable recognition in Congress that something needs to be done, and there is bipartisan receptivity to some of the changes required. But that does not mean legislation, especially comprehensive legislation, will necessarily follow.

Immigration has become highly politicised. Republicans have long believed they had little to gain by appearing soft on immigration. A member of Congress who took a more accommodating position risked facing a primary challenger advocating stricter policies. Trump weaponised the issue further, making anti-immigrant positions politically profitable within the Republican Party. Democrats, too, came under pressure to adopt strongly pro-immigrant positions.

However, Americans have increasingly recognised that Trump’s immigration actions have gone too far. An issue that was once a political strength for him has become a liability. That change in public mood is significant, with consequences in these midterm elections, but it does not automatically translate into radical changes in immigration policy.

Q/ How have changes in US immigration policy affected immigrants, particularly Indian IT professionals?

There is a tendency, particularly in the media, to attribute everything to the policies introduced by Trump, which are supposedly creating major disruption in the IT workforce, especially among Indian professionals. But while Trump’s policies may have accelerated the trend, they are not responsible for it. The more significant changes have taken place within the industry itself. The IT sector is undergoing a major restructuring, largely driven by the rise of artificial intelligence. This was a natural trend that was going to happen. Immigration policies have accelerated it.

I would look at this as a three-part issue for Indian workers. The first is the political environment. Trump is clearly not particularly fond of immigration, even high-skilled immigration. Even during his first presidency, he spoke against H-1B workers. His relationship with leading figures in the technology industry has not translated into a softer position on immigration.

Vice President J.D. Vance has also described H-1B workers as essentially indentured servants. There is a political backdrop in which social media is rife with racist tropes and anti-immigrant sentiment. However, social media chatter does not make people lose their jobs or immigration status or force them to leave the country. Indian workers are not voluntarily returning because they feel unwelcome. They are returning because they are being forced to, either because they have lost their jobs or because their visa situation has become vulnerable. These are involuntary departures. The bigger story is the economic and structural shift within the IT industry, which has not received enough attention.

Q/ When did this trend begin, and how many Indian professionals are returning to India?

During the Covid boom, there was considerable hiring in the IT industry. That came to an end in 2023, when large-scale layoffs began. The US does not officially track how many Indians are returning to India. The available numbers are largely informal. To the extent that there is reliable data, the Indian company Xpheno estimates that around 7,200 Indians returned in 2023. The number increased slightly in 2024 and rose further in 2025, to approximately 15,000. By September this year, it had reached around 12,700.

These numbers are more consistent with a trend that began earlier than with a sudden post-Trump increase. The dislocation is particularly evident in Silicon Valley and among IT services companies. The traditional model of labour arbitrage, in which companies used wage differentials as a central part of their business model, has essentially crumbled. Artificial intelligence has taken over many lower-skilled, entry-level jobs. The same thing is happening in India because the ecosystem is largely common. People in low- and mid-skilled occupations are vulnerable, while those with mid- to high-level skills continue to be in demand. Professionals working in areas such as cybersecurity and technology architecture are doing considerably better.

Q/ How much is growing anxiety over unemployment in the US contributing to the political backlash against immigration?

There is enormous concern. Fresh graduates are having a particularly difficult time finding entry-level jobs. People are waiting much longer to get their first jobs and accepting considerably lower salaries. Many senior professionals are also having to accept positions one or two levels below what they would ordinarily expect. Even for the limited number of entry-level jobs available, there are now more experienced people competing. This is particularly pronounced in sectors such as IT, where Indian workers have traditionally established a strong presence. Consequently, Indian professionals are feeling the impact disproportionately. Anti-immigrant rhetoric further exacerbates the situation, but the underlying problem is not generated by Trump and his administration.