By 2024, if current trends hold, India will surpass China to become the world’s most populous country. It has to prepare for that amid the dislocations of a fast-changing economy.
India likely will hold that ranking for the rest of the 21st century. Its population of 1.34 billion reflects nearly a fourfold increase since its independence 70 years ago. China’s population, now 1.41 billion, roughly doubled during the same period. The pace of India’s population growth, now at 15 million people per year, is the world’s largest. The two nations’ population gap is projected to widen to 500 million by 2100.
By comparison, the third- and fourth-most-populous countries in 2100, Nigeria and the United States, are projected to have populations of nearly 800 million and 450 million, respectively.
The long-term growth of India’s population, largely a function of fertility rates, is less certain. United Nations population projections indicate a range of possible scenarios. For example, if India’s current fertility of 2.3 births per woman remains constant, its population would grow to 1.8 billion by 2050 and 2.5 billion by 2100. Even under the instant-replacement fertility scenario, with the country’s fertility assumed to fall immediately to 2.1 births per woman, India’s population would reach 1.9 billion by the end of the century.
The frequently cited U.N. medium projection assumes that Indian fertility will decline to below replacement by 2035 and remain at 1.8 births per woman in subsequent decades. As a result India’s population is projected to peak at 1.7 billion in 2060 before declining to 1.5 billion by 2100. The low projection assumes a more rapid fertility decline to well below replacement level — about 1.3 births per woman — that would result in India’s population peaking at 1.5 billion around 2040 and falling to 900 million by 2100.
While India’s fertility has declined to about half its level in the late 1980s, that trajectory may not continue. In the past eight years, contraceptive use has fallen by almost 35%, as abortions and use of emergency pills doubled. More specifically, reliance on birth-control pills, condoms and vasectomies declined by 30%, 52% and 73%, respectively.
In 2017 the Health Ministry launched a campaign to expand the use of modern contraception with a focus on population stabilization in 146 high-fertility districts across seven states. With India’s contraceptive prevalence rate at 52%, abortion has become a “proxy contraceptive” for many women, especially those from poorer households.
For decades India relied on female sterilization as its primary contraceptive method, funding about 4 million tubal ligations annually, more than any other country. In 2016, however, the government took major steps toward modernizing that system, introducing injectable contraceptives free of charge in government facilities.
A relatively young age structure also contributes to India’s population growth. The median age in India is 27, compared with 38 for China. Children younger than 18 account for one-third of India’s population, but only one-fifth of China’s.
However, India’s population is aging. The proportion of people 65 and older is expected to double to 13% by 2050, as the number of working-age adults per elderly person falls from 11 to five.
India has achieved notable progress in reducing mortality rates. Life expectancy at birth has increased to 68 years, from 44 years in the mid-1960s. India’s child-mortality rate at 38 per 1,000 births lags behind China’s rate of 11, however. Early marriage and pregnancy still contribute to excessive maternal deaths, and the life expectancy of Indian women is eight years shorter than their Chinese counterparts.
India and China, unlike most other nations, have significantly more males than females. In both countries in the 2000s, infant mortality was higher for females than for males. Skewed sex ratios are due in part to use of prenatal ultrasound scanning to abort female fetuses—a practice which, while prohibited, is difficult to eliminate. The preference for sons stems from expected elder care, the departure of daughters to husbands’ households after marriage and expectations that a bride’s parents will pay a dowry to their in-laws.
Such traditions linger in India, where the population still is predominantly rural, in contrast to China, where 57% of the population lives in cities. Urban populations generally transition more rapidly to lower fertility rates.
India’s rate of urban-population growth is expected to climb, partly because of migratory flows, especially of young people seeking jobs. By midcentury half of India’s population, about 830 million people, is expected to be urban dwellers, which will challenge local and national governments’ ability to provide basic services and infrastructure. About one-fifth of the current population lives without electricity.
Health care also lags, with about half of Indian children reported to be undernourished. Only about two-thirds are immunized against diphtheria, pertussis and tetanus, compared with nearly all in China. Another public-health challenge is the lack of sanitation facilities for more than half of India’s rural population.
Immigration plays a negligible role in India’s population growth, owing in part to strong enforcement measures to prevent illegal immigration. However, India has the world’s largest emigrant population, with approximately 16 million Indians living abroad and millions more planning to emigrate. India is the world’s largest remittance recipient, in recent years receiving on average almost $70 billion annually.
Despite a high rate of economic growth, forecast to exceed 7% for 2017, its benefits do not trickle down to most Indians. While India has a relatively large middle class, many others struggle to secure basic daily needs. About 25% of Indians live on less than $2 a day, and the country accounts for one of every three of the world’s people who live in poverty.
India struggles to create enough jobs for its growing working-age population. During the coming two decades, the working-age population is projected to increase by more than 200 million. Already more than 30% of Indians between 15 and 30 are neither employed nor involved in education or training. At the same time, Indian businesses report shortages of qualified skilled workers. In addition to its efforts to making labor regulations friendlier to job creation, therefore, the government also must invest in education and vocational training.
India accounts for more than one-sixth of humanity. If the nation’s fertility rates remain unchanged, its population may double to 2.5 billion by 2100. Even if replacement-level fertility were achieved today, the population still would reach nearly 2 billion by 2100.
The government must emphasize family planning while improving public health and the status of girls and women. If it does not, it will be hard-pressed to sustain high rates of economic growth and meet Indians’ mounting aspirations.
(Joseph Chamie, the former director of the United Nations Population Division, is an independent consulting demographer. Barry Mirkin is a former chief of the Population Policy Section of the United Nations Population Division.)
