On March 13, Vice President Kamala Harris visited an abortion clinic run by Planned Parenthood (an organisation that advocates for and provides reproductive health care services) in St Paul, Minnesota, the first time an American vice president or president ever visited such a facility. It was part of Harris's 'Fight for Reproductive Freedoms' tour, shining the spotlight on an issue which is expected to galvanise moderate voters, especially women, in the November elections.
Harris and President Biden are facing an uphill task in the polls, with Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump enjoying an edge in all opinion polls. Biden's popularity has hit rock bottom, faring poorly on a range of key issues, such as immigration, inflation and the war in Gaza. The public opinion on his age is another major liability for Biden. The abortion debate, however, is a key issue where Biden has the edge and the Democrats hope to play it up to neutralise Trump's advantage and get back in to the race. Access to in vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatment is another issue that is attracting voter interest after a recent decision by the Alabama supreme court which ruled that frozen embryos are children, jeopardising access to IVF treatment. (Alabama subsequently passed a law guaranteeing access to IVF treatment.)
Abortion and IVF were among the key issues Biden chose to lead with during his annual State of the Union address on March 7. Among the guests First Lady Jill Biden invited for the address was Kate Cox, a mother of three from Dallas, Texas. Cox needed a “medically necessary” abortion, but Texas laws prevented her from getting the procedure done. She had to travel out of state to save her life. “What freedom else will you take away?” Biden asked Republicans, blaming them and Trump for framing aggressive anti-abortion laws in states and also for the 2022 Dobbs v Jackson Women's Health Organisation decision of the supreme court which overturned Roe v Wade, the landmark 1973 case that gave women the constitutionally-protected right to have abortions. It was Trump who nominated three of the supreme court justices who voted to overturn Roe v Wade and he has claimed credit for the decision multiple times. “For 54 years, they were trying to get Roe v Wade terminated, and I did it and I am proud to have done it,” said Trump during a Fox News town hall on January 10.
Biden said he would push for a law enshrining nationwide abortion rights guaranteed under Roe v Wade if he was re-elected in November and if Democrats won majorities in both houses of the Congress. Poor poll numbers seem to have forced Biden's hand in putting abortion front and centre of his campaign. In his first political rally of 2024, Biden spoke extensively on abortion rights, putting the blame squarely on Trump. “Donald Trump is betting that you won't vote on this issue,” Biden said at a rally in northern Virginia.
Early this year, the Biden team also aired its first advertisement on abortion rights in battleground states. It featured testimony from Dr Austin Dennard, a Texas gynaecologist and mother who had to travel out of state to terminate her pregnancy after it was found out that the foetus had a fatal condition. Texas does not permit abortions beyond six weeks of pregnancy. The state even allows private citizens to sue abortion providers and those who assist patients seeking abortion after six weeks. After the supreme court's Dobbs decision, a trigger law went into force in Texas which banned all abortions except those required to protect the life of a mother. In the ad, Dennard directly named and blamed Trump for the situation.
The Biden team is hopeful that as elections draw closer, testimonies like that of Dennard would prompt more Americans, especially women and young voters, to support the president. They are encouraged by the impact the Dobbs decision had in the 2022 midterms when the Republicans and Trump-endorsed candidates suffered an unexpected defeat. In key states such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida and Virginia, Democrats managed to stave off a red wave and score some unexpected wins. Ballot measures supporting abortion rights were aprroved in all seven states where they featured on the ballots, including Republican fortresses like Kansas, Montana and Kentucky.
Biden expects that success to be replicated this year as well. Nearly 70 per cent of Americans have expressed concern about the overturning of Roe v Wade and all major national polls have consistently shown that a majority of Americans identify themselves with the Democratic position on abortion. Many women, who identify themselves as having conservative and libertarian views and routinely vote for the Republican Party, are now seriously considering voting for Biden in the fall. Democratic pollsters are hopeful that they could add moderate and independent Republicans, like Nikki Haley supporters, to either vote for Biden or at least sit out the polls.
Among the Republicans, there are no clear answers or a coherent strategy on dealing with the issue. There are also under pressure from anti-abortion groups—a reliable constituency for Trump and other down ballot Republicans— to further restrict abortion rights. For instance, the Right to Life Committee expects a second Trump administration to revive the Comstock Act, a piece of law enacted in 1873, intended for the “suppression of trade in, and circulation of, obscene literature and articles of immoral use”. It banned the use of drugs or other articles “designed, adapted or intended” to aid abortion as well. The Congress removed the part concerning contraception from the Act in 1971. The Right to Life Committee also wants Trump to take executive action to make it easier for medical personnel to deny abortion requests and track all abortions held across the United States.
Such compulsions probably explain the Republicans struggling with an incoherent strategy on the issue. Speaking on a radio show on March 19, Trump indicated that he would back a 15-week national abortion ban, with exceptions for rape, incest and life-threatening emergencies. It goes against the more restrictive positions advocated by most conservative Republicans. Trump also told anti-abortion activists who wanted further restrictions that it was important to “win elections” first.
For Biden, however, abortion may not be an easy issue to lead with. He has made it clear many times that being a practising Catholic, it is not an issue that he is entirely comfortable with. Until the supreme court chose to dump Roe v Wade, Biden never used the word abortion publicly during his presidency. In fact, when the Roe v Wade judgment came in 1973, Biden, who then just took over as a freshman senator, said it “went too far”. He also opposed federal funding for abortion and late-term abortions, until the 2020 campaign season. Even during his latest state of the union speech, he appeared reluctant to use the word 'abortion', speaking instead about “reproductive freedom” and “freedom to choose”.
This dichotomy has exacerbated tensions between the traditional and progressive wings of the Democratic Party and has also angered abortion-rights groups and activists. The debate between “good” and “bad” abortions—abortion in case of medical emergencies, rape and incest, and abortion as a personal choice— is also further dividing the two sides.
Yet, the best bet for Biden, keeping in mind his reelection prospects, is to avoid getting further into the nuances of the debate and appeal to moderate pro-life Republicans who appear to be more in tune with his views on the issue. Recent polling also indicate that while more than 80 per cent of Americans support abortion for women suffering from pregnancy-related emergencies, the support dwindles down drastically when it comes to a blanket option for abortion.
Following the supreme court verdict on Roe v Wade, Biden has been using his executive authority to increase abortion access. He has made it easier to obtain abortion pills and has agreed to fund US service members' travel across state lines for abortion. He is also working to allow federal funding for abortions. Biden hopes that by beefing up his pro-choice credentials and by tying Trump to the Dobbs judgment, he can arrest his popularity slide and bring his faltering campaign back on track. “Trump is running for president bragging that he killed Roe v Wade,” said Biden. “So, let us be absolutely clear what he is bragging about. The only reason there's a ban on abortion is because of Donald Trump.”
Democrats hope that independents and moderates buy that line and choose Biden over Trump just like they did four years ago.