On March 19, Union ministers Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Pralhad Joshi and Piyush Goyal met with farmer leaders in Chandigarh to discuss their longstanding demand for the legalisation of the minimum support price (MSP). The meeting was described as “cordial”, and the next one was scheduled for May 4. Soon after, however, Punjab Police launched a crackdown against farmer leaders and activists. Hundreds were detained, and national highways were cleared of tents that had been pitched over a year ago. What the BJP-led Central government could not manage at Delhi’s borders in 2020, the Aam Aadmi Party government was able to do in Punjab.
The harsh action was uncharacteristic of Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, leaving a lot of people puzzled. Why would the state government antagonise farmers, a community constituting over two-thirds of Punjab’s population, when no party has dared to do so? The Shiromani Akali Dal was forced to withdraw from the National Democratic Alliance and recall its minister Harsimrat Kaur Badal from the Modi cabinet when the agitation first began in 2020, as it could not afford to be seen in the opposition camp. Moreover, the AAP has been the biggest beneficiary of the 2020 farmers’ agitation, as mainstream parties in Punjab were routed and a political newbie was given a chance in the 2022 assembly elections.
The crackdown came two days after Mann completed his third year in office and received an endorsement from party chief Arvind Kejriwal, confirming that he would serve his full term. The reasons are not hard to fathom. After suffering a major electoral setback in Delhi, the AAP is eager to safeguard its government in Punjab. Simultaneously, the state government launched a “war against drugs”. This concurrent crackdown suggests a strategic recalibration to strengthen Mann’s position.
The first signs of this strategy emerged on March 3, when Mann walked out of a meeting with farmer leaders, signalling his growing impatience. The government realised that blocked roads deterred investors and led to losses for local businesses. Moreover, it has been happening at a time when the state was finding it hard to provide jobs for its youth. With Canada and the US tightening immigration policies, Punjab is staring at a real problem.
“After its loss in Delhi, the AAP is keen to retain Punjab. They recognise the need to perform, so they have gone into overdrive. Mann must establish himself as a strong leader, independent of his party’s Delhi leadership. Punjab prefers strong leaders, as seen with Amarinder Singh and the Badals,” said Ashutosh Kumar, professor at the department of political science, Panjab University, Chandigarh.
The AAP appears to have weighed the costs and the benefits. The move could help in the upcoming byelection for the Ludhiana West assembly seat, where the party has nominated its Rajya Sabha member, businessman Sanjeev Arora. Mann’s aggressive move conveys a sense of the restoration of his government’s administrative grip over a state critics say is experiencing a leadership vacuum. Following the AAP’s defeat in Delhi, Punjab’s opposition leader, Partap Singh Bajwa of the Congress, claimed that 32 MLAs of the ruling party were in touch with him.
Strong and spirited: Farmers agitating at Shambhu border in Patiala district | PTI
Mann was also perceived as being too deferential to his party’s Delhi leaders. The image of a Jat Sikh (Mann) bowing to a Baniya (Kejriwal) did not sit well with Punjab’s dominant community. However, Mann’s recent actions have Kejriwal’s backing.
There is also a growing sentiment that farmer agitations have lost public sympathy. Road and rail blockades have caused widespread inconvenience. Farmers achieved a significant victory in 2021 when the three controversial farm laws were repealed, leading to their withdrawal from Delhi’s borders. However, their insistence on a legal guarantee for MSP has divided opinions, as many believe it carries a heavy economic burden and is unfeasible. While farmers in Punjab and Haryana already sell their two major crops―wheat and paddy―at MSP, a legal guarantee would extend this across the country, making life difficult for both Central and state governments.
The current agitation, led by two groups under Sarwan Singh Pandher and Jagjit Singh Dallewal at the Ludhiana-Ambala border (also the Punjab-Haryana border), lacked the strategic backing of other influential organisations. Even the Supreme Court asked the Haryana government to remove the road blocks. Now, following the crackdown, farmers have announced fresh protests against the state government, but they may not gain the same traction as before.
“There may be an understanding between the Central and state agencies in the way they came down on farmers. However, we must not give them an excuse to suppress us, as our fight is against the Centre,” said senior farmer leader Darshan Pal. “We must also prepare for the looming crisis Indian agriculture may face due to free trade agreements with European countries and tariff negotiations with the US.”
Some observers suggest that the crackdown may have provided a face-saving exit for the Ludhiana-Ambala protesters, as their movement was losing momentum. “The BJP wanted the sit-in to continue so that public resentment against farmers would grow, particularly among business owners. But we need a new approach where all stakeholders work together for Punjab. We have never been anti-farmer and are not now. We have repeatedly urged them to end roadblocks as they cause economic losses to the state and its people,” said AAP spokesperson Neel Garg.
Ashuthosh Kumar said that while Punjab had immense entrepreneurial talent, it lacked the right environment to flourish. “The people of Punjab succeed outside the state, but can the AAP government create an environment where they can succeed at home?”
AAP insiders suggest that governance reforms are needed. The Mann government’s recent crackdown on drug smuggling has drawn attention. Declaring a “war on drugs” and urging smugglers to leave Punjab, the state police have arrested suppliers and hawala operators. “This is our priority,” said Garg. Ashuthosh Kumar said if the state government could control the drug trade―just as militancy was contained in the past―people would reward it.
While the state grapples with administrative challenges, another potentially polarising issue looms: the return of radical leader and MP Amritpal Singh, currently imprisoned in Assam. Several of his associates have been transferred to Punjab jails after the revocation of the National Security Act against them.
Union Home Minister Amit Shah recently referred to Amritpal as a “wannabe Bhindranwale”. He represents the radical fringe in Punjab’s politics, and his return is likely to attract further attention. His presence could impact state politics in several ways. The moderate Akali Dal, which has struggled to revive itself, could experience a resurgence, as happened during the militancy era when Sikhs sought a political voice.
Meanwhile, the BJP aims to capitalise on the emerging political environment. Its vote share in Punjab has already increased. However, neither the BJP nor the Akali Dal can grow beyond a certain point independently. Their alliance―a Sikh-majority party and a Hindu-majority party―was historically viewed through the lens of national security. This has led some within both parties to hope for a reunion to mount a credible challenge.
Although Punjab’s next assembly elections are two years away, the evolving situation ensures the border state will remain in the spotlight.
Why AAP’s thinking is changing
* After Delhi loss, AAP focused on holding on to power in Punjab.
* CM Bhagwant Mann is keen to be seen as a strong leader.
* Blockades have hurt local businesses and scared off investors.
* Disruptions have led to declining public sympathy.
* Crucial bypoll coming up in Ludhiana West.
What protesters plan next
* Fresh protests against the state government, though enthusiasm is dipping.
* Focus is shifting back to getting the MSP issue addressed by the Centre.
* Want to avoid giving the state an excuse to suppress the movement.
* Preparing for future threats like FTAs and tariff negotiations with the US.