It was a pleasant spring in Bihar―a brief respite before the scorching summer―when the Bihar Congress leaders, including party in-charge Mohan Prakash and state president Akhilesh Prasad Singh, awaited Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad’s approval to finalise the seat-sharing formula for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. While the preliminary negotiations had been completed, it was Lalu, as always, who had the final say.
Since the late 1990s, when Lalu was among the first non-Congress leaders to staunchly support Sonia Gandhi when she came under criticism from the BJP and others over the foreign origin issue, the Congress has always granted his party considerable leeway.
The relationship between the RJD and the Congress has been characterised by mutual respect and understanding, with Lalu responding positively to the Congress’s ambitions whenever that did not threaten his political standing. To put things in perspective, when a section of leaders attempted to dissuade Sonia from backing a particular candidate for a Lok Sabha seat in Bihar last year, citing Lalu’s alleged opposition, she was not worried. Insiders say Sonia was confident in her bond with Lalu. “Don’t worry, I will speak to Lalu ji about it. He will understand. The leader must get the ticket,” she reassured them.
Although the Congress considers Lalu’s party its closest ally in the Hindi heartland, a pressing question remains: is the grand old party’s political relevance threatened by its secondary status in the alliance?
The coming summer months will give the answer to that as the Congress and the RJD prepare to face off against Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), which enjoys a comfortable relationship with the BJP, in the assembly elections due in November. It could mark a turning point for Lalu and the Congress, unless they play their cards wisely. For now, the focus is on revitalising party cadres while incorporating lessons learnt from the Delhi polls.
Following the appointment of Krishna Allavaru as the new Congress in-charge for Bihar in place of Mohan Prakash last month, there is growing optimism among party members that his leadership could reinvigorate the party. A trusted aide of Rahul Gandhi, Allavaru is carving out his own path to strengthen the Congress’s organisational structure.
According to Congress leaders, this renewed momentum is expected to fortify the party’s apparatus, positioning it for a more favourable deal in seat-sharing negotiations with the RJD.
Leaders from both parties are well aware that a fragmented opposition would lead to vote-splitting, ultimately benefiting the BJP, just as it did in the national capital, where the Congress contributed to the defeat of the incumbent Aam Aadmi Party. Consequently, ensuring a seamless alliance remains a top priority for the opposition bloc.
On March 18, the Congress replaced state president Akhilesh Prasad Singh with with Rajesh Kumar, a dalit leader and MLA from Kutumba. Prasad was perceived as close to Lalu, which might have led to his exit. But some leaders believe that Allavaru, after taking charge of the state, had been pressing for a candidate of his choice. Those supporting Allavaru’s choice contend that a strong organisational structure demands fresh leadership with a hands-on approach in handling cadres while remaining strongly connected with the organisational hierarchy of the party to wade through political challenges posed by both allies and rivals.
Given the RJD’s robust cadre network, particularly in rural areas, its leaders have unofficially signalled to the organisationally weaker Congress that it will be allocated fewer seats than the 70 it contested in the 2020 assembly elections. This development appears to have spurred Allavaru to adopt a more assertive political stance, aiming to secure a respectable number of seats.
Despite lacking substantial political clout in the state, the Congress could point towards what happened in the Delhi assembly elections, where the AAP’s decision to contest alone led to a crushing defeat, pushing it towards an existential crisis. The RJD must strike a delicate balance―pressuring the Congress to accept a reduced seat share while ensuring the alliance remains intact.
A senior Congress leader closely involved in Bihar politics remarked, “When we contested the assembly elections alone in 2010, an upper-caste lobby in Bihar began influencing decision-makers. Even those with no real political expertise started running whisper campaigns. They repeatedly said that we should not align with Lalu. But they had no concrete plan for contesting all 243 seats. The result? We won just four seats, of which three were secured by candidates belonging to the minority community.”
A decade later, in the 2020 assembly elections, the Congress recorded the lowest strike rate within its alliance with the RJD. The national party bore the brunt of the blame for the alliance’s failure to form a government.
Unless the Congress starts independently strategising, mobilising voters, making its presence felt on the ground and winning seats in Bihar on its own, it will continue to play second fiddle to the RJD.
Historically, the decline of the Congress in Bihar can be attributed to the rise of Mandal politics (OBC reservations) and the Ram Mandir movement of the 1990s, which eroded its traditional support base of upper caste, dalit and Muslim voters. Over the past few decades, its dependence on Lalu Prasad and the RJD has rendered it electorally fragile, with the latter dictating terms―not only in seat allocations, but also in shaping the party’s political standing in the state. This prolonged dependency has weakened its organisational structure, leading to a loss of faith among party members. Many Congress leaders in Bihar now perceive themselves as mere deputies to the RJD rather than as independent political actors.
The RJD-Congress alliance requires a compelling narrative that extends beyond its traditional Muslim-Yadav vote bank, which constitutes around 28 per cent of the electorate. Observers believe that it must address Bihar’s pressing issues and present a vision that transcends caste politics, offering concrete solutions to the state’s longstanding challenges such as stagnant infrastructure, persistent brain drain, limited economic opportunities, rising crime rate, farmer distress and a fragile health care system.
Political analyst Madan Mohan Jha spoke about an emerging trend in recent assembly elections: women voters are increasingly engaging in transactional politics, responding electorally to tangible benefits. This was particularly evident in Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, where welfare schemes played a decisive role.
“If the RJD can effectively appeal to women voters, it will be in a stronger position in the elections,” he said.