THE “SECRET” POWER-SHARING agreement brokered by the Congress high command between Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Deputy Chief Minister D.K. Shivakumar after the 2023 assembly polls is no longer a secret. In fact, the state might see a new chief minister as early as June.
Siddaramaiah’s recent statement that the high command would take a call on whether to replace the chief minister gave credence to the rotational chief minister theory. It was also a clear departure from his earlier statements, dismissing any such arrangement, and his repeated assertion that he would stay a full five years.
The deal was struck when, after the party won in the state, lengthy deliberations reached a dead end with neither Siddaramaiah nor Shivakumar agreeing to opt out of the chief ministerial race. In the last two years, the 50-50 power-sharing pact has often stirred intrigue. While Siddaramaiah loyalists have maintained the rotational formula was a creation of the media, even Shivakumar had played down the existence of a pact. But, in a recent interview, Shivakumar said there was a “power-sharing agreement” and he would become chief minister at the appropriate time.
Interestingly, the last two months have seen open demands from Congress leaders for a change of guard in both the government and the party (Shivakumar is also the state party president). A third faction has been lobbying for a dalit chief minister or party state president. A dinner meeting hosted by Public Works Department Minister Satish Jarkiholi, attended by Siddaramaiah but not Shivakumar, the leaders’ frequent Delhi trips and another dinner planned by Home Minister G. Parameshwara, but called off at the last minute following the high command’s intervention, all show that Siddaramaiah is in no mood to pass the baton, according to Shivakumar loyalists.
Jarkiholi, Parameshwara and Minister for Cooperation K.N. Rajanna have reminded the party leadership of the Udaipur Declaration (one man, one post), also claiming that party work had slowed because of Shivakumar’s workload―he holds water resources and Bengaluru development portfolios, too. Rajanna said Shivakumar should lead the party in the 2028 polls and become the full-term chief minister instead of settling for a two-and-a-half-year term.
Meanwhile, BJP MP and former chief minister Basavaraj Bommai, like other party colleagues, has taken an interest in the matter and predicted that Shivakumar’s patience was “nearing breaking point”.
A visibly angry Shivakumar stated that state party president’s post cannot be bought from a shop, but is earned with leadership qualities and organisational skills. He has jetted to Delhi to get “private meetings” cancelled and also prevented Siddaramaiah tabling the contentious caste survey in the cabinet.
At the peak of the tussle between the two rival camps, ministers in the Siddaramaiah faction also accused Congress general secretary and Karnataka in-charge Randeep Singh Surjewala of being “partial” towards Shivakumar and not giving them a patient hearing.
A senior Congress leader, who requested anonymity, said that the Siddaramaiah camp was trying to diminish Shivakumar’s stature by replacing him as the state party chief or creating parallel power centres by pushing for three to four deputy chief ministers. “The chief minister’s coterie working overtime and holding private meetings proved that the secret pact is no rumour,” said the leader. “And, it is time for change.”
Irked by the constant friction between the factions, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge issued a warning to party leaders to “shut up” and “complete the tasks” assigned to them. “I am here, Rahul ji is also there, to decide on these issues, at the right time,” he said. Despite the diktat, Chamarajanagar MP Sunil Bose, son of Social Welfare Minister Dr H.C. Mahadevappa, said Siddaramaiah would remain in office for five years and return in 2028. “There is no talk of replacing the chief minister,” he said.
During discussions that followed the election win in 2023, while both Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar claimed credit for the near 5 per cent increase in vote share (43.2 per cent), Shivakumar reasoned that his Vokkaliga community, which traditionally favoured the Janata Dal (Secular), had voted for the Congress to see him as the chief minister.
But, Siddaramaiah had the overwhelming support of MLAs. Shivakumar also argued that Siddaramaiah had already served a full term (2013-2018) and it was only fair to make the state party president chief minister. But since 2000, except S.M. Krishna, no party chief has been elevated to the chief minister’s post.
After several rounds of negotiations at both Kharge and Rahul Gandhi’s homes in Delhi, the high command finally prevailed on Shivakumar. He set the condition that he should be the sole deputy chief minister and allowed to hold the state president’s post. According to sources, the two leaders agreed to a transfer of powers, but did not want to let the other occupy the chief minister’s chair first. The high command is said to have favoured Siddaramaiah owing to his seniority, mass appeal and experience as a chief minister who had tabled more than a dozen state budgets. The murmur in the corridors of power now is that as per the pact, the chief minister has to step down by November this year.
Siddaramaiah has many battles to fight as he is entangled in the multi-crore MUDA site allotment scam and is also walking the tightrope on the state’s finances. The five populist guarantee schemes costing Rs58,000 crore have left too little funds for development. Yet, there is also a worry that a sudden change in Karnataka might impact the party’s prospects in other poll-bound states. The futility of power-sharing exercises have been seen before in Karnataka itself (H.D. Kumaraswamy versus B.S. Yediyurappa in 2008) and in Rajasthan (Ashok Gehlot vs Sachin Pilot). So, the stakes are high for the Congress.
On the other hand, insiders caution that the pact made to placate master strategist and Gandhi family loyalist Shivakumar cannot be conveniently forgotten. When he took the reins of the party in July 2020, it was in tatters following mass desertions that led to the collapse of the JD(S)-Congress coalition government in 2019.
A senior leader in the Shivakumar camp said, on condition of anonymity, that he gave structure and speed to the party and renewed its spirit at the booth level. “He took charge of the Karnataka stretch of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra that re-energised the party at the national level,” said the leader. “Also, he wooed the Vokkaliga community to the Congress, which again ended up losing the Vokkaliga votes for breach of promise.” The party won only nine of the 28 Lok Sabha seats.
Shivakumar sympathisers also believe that their leader got tainted (spent 50 days in Tihar jail) for trying to help the party win the Rajya Sabha (Ahmed Patel) seat, as he hosted Gujarat legislators at a resort on the outskirts of Bengaluru to prevent horse-trading by the BJP. He was arrested by the Enforcement Directorate on September 3, 2019, in connection with a money laundering case after raiding the resort. Congress president Sonia Gandhi met Shivakumar in Tihar jail, describing his arrest as a case of “political vendetta”. Within eight months, his loyalty got him the state president’s post.
If Siddaramaiah enjoys the support of a large number of legislators, Shivakumar has the privilege of proximity to the Gandhi family, said senior Congress leaders. “The party has a history of picking leaders who might not be the first choice of legislators,” said a leader, citing the example of M. Veerappa Moily who was picked by the high command despite a majority of the MLAs choosing Krishna. “The leader earns their confidence once he becomes the chief minister.”
Speculations are rife over either of the two leaders attempting a coup. It is unlikely that Siddaramaiah would float a party or join hands with the BJP, given his secular credentials and age. But, the opposition fears that Shivakumar might just engineer a coup.
During an obituary reference to Krishna in the assembly last month, Shivakumar said he had forcibly secured himself a berth in Krishna’s cabinet and cited his astrologer’s advice to “snatch” what he rightly deserved. “We have to grab power,” he had stated, perhaps a signal that he would not hesitate to take the chief minister’s post by force.