THE SEEDS OF revolt in the Shiv Sena over the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi were sown even before the coalition was formed in 2019. Eknath Shinde, who was then the most important person in the party after Uddhav Thackeray, had urged the party leadership not to join hands with the ideologically incompatible Congress and Nationalist Congress Party. Thackeray ignored the advice, but he made Shinde swear he would remain loyal to the party. More than two and a half years later, Shinde has broken that promise. On June 21, he asked Thackeray over phone from a five-star hotel in Surat, Gujarat, to break ties with the Congress and the NCP. Shinde, who is urban development minister in Thackeray’s cabinet, claimed support of 35 of the Sena’s 55 members in the assembly.
The drama began unfolding on June 20, when the BJP’s Prasad Lad defeated Congress candidate Chandrakant Handore in the Legislative Council elections. Just 10 days earlier, the BJP’s Dhananjay Mahadik had defeated the Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Jadhav in the Rajya Sabha polls. On both occasions the BJP candidates did not have the required votes, but sailed through with the help of independents and cross-voting from the Congress and the Shiv Sena.
A week before the Rajya Sabha elections, a delegation of MVA leaders—NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal, Congress leader Sunil Kedar and Sena leader Anil Desai—had met BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis and appealed to him for a consensus in the elections. Fadnavis told them if they allowed the BJP to retain three Rajya Sabha seats, the party would not field a candidate in the MLC polls. The MVA rejected the offer. The BJP fielded an extra candidate each to the Rajya Sabha and the MLC and both won. The BJP has 106 legislators. It got 123 votes in the Rajya Sabha elections and 134 in the MLC elections, as most of the independents and five MVA members (two of the Congress and three of the Shiv Sena) voted for BJP candidates.
As the results of the MLC elections were emerging on June 20, a group of Shiv Sena legislators left Mumbai for Thane, Shinde’s home turf. All of them had switched off their cell phones. They soon set out for the Maharashtra-Gujarat border in the neighbouring Palghar district in seven SUVs. As their vehicles crossed the border, a convoy of Gujarat Police made a protective ring around them. They reached Surat early in the morning and checked in at Hotel Le Meridian. Gujarat BJP president C.R. Patil, a Maratha, spoke to Shinde as soon as the group reached the hotel where 30 rooms had already been booked.
The legislators’ absence was first noticed at a meeting at midnight, but the party leaders thought they might have gone to sleep as the Shiv Sena’s two candidates had won and the Congress candidate’s defeat was expected because the coalition was short of eight votes. However, around 12:30am, Uddhav called a meeting of senior MVA ministers to find out how cross-voting happened. The meeting, attended by Congress and NCP leaders including Irrigation Minister Jayant Patil and Supriya Sule, MP, went on till 2:30am. During the meeting, Sule and Patil raised the alarm and asked Uddhav to contact the legislators. They were not reachable.
Love lost: Eknath Shinde; (left) Uddhav Thackeray | Amey Mansabdar
Soon the news emerged that Shinde and his group were revolting, and rumours started taking rounds about how many legislators he had in Surat.Three Sena ministers—Sandipan Bhumre, Abdul Sattar and Shambhuraj Patankar—had joined hands with Shinde.
As the gravity of the situation dawned on the Sena leadership, Uddhav sent his close aide Milind Narvekar and Ravindra Phatak, who is said to be close to Shinde, to placate the rebels. The duo traveled to Surat but had to wait for an hour to meet Shinde. After the meeting, which went on for more than an hour, Narvekar told Shinde that Uddhav wanted to speak to him over phone. Shinde greeted Uddhav in the traditional Sena style greeting, “Jai Maharashtra Saheb”.
Shinde’s is the biggest rebellion in the Sena’s history. The earlier ones, led by Chhagan Bhujbal, Ganesh Naik, Raj Thackeray and Narayan Rane, pale in comparison because Shinde could split the Sena across Maharashtra, as the rebels came from all regions. On June 22, Shinde claimed from Guwahati in Assam, to where the group was shifted from Surat, that he had 46 legislators with him. He also said that he had not split the party and remained a staunch Shiv Sainik.
Game on: The rebel MLAs bound for Guwahati board a bus in Surat | PTI
That the Sena was fast losing the game became clear on June 22 when Aditya Thackeray, Uddhav’s son, removed ‘minister’ from his Twitter profile and party MP Sanjay Raut tweeted that the crisis in Maharashtra was heading in the direction of dissolution of the assembly. The party issued a whip to all its MLAs, asking them to attend a party meeting in the evening. The letter said if they failed to attend it would lead to disciplinary action.
Shinde and his group’s main grouse had been that the Sena was playing second fiddle to the NCP. It is an open secret that Ajit Pawar, finance minister and NCP supremo Sharad Pawar’s nephew, runs the show in Maharashtra. Many legislators had repeatedly complained to Uddhav about the finance ministry diverting funds meant for their constituencies to those represented by the NCP.
The Sena has three MLAs in Raigad district, all of whom defeated NCP candidates in the 2019 elections. After the MVA was formed, the NCP’s Aditi Tatkare, daughter of NCP leader Sunil Tatkare, became minister of state in the government. The senior Tatkare had been a bitter rival of the Sena in Raigad for two decades. When the the first Covid lockdown was lifted, the Tatkares organised an event in Raigad and invited Uddhav. The three Sena MLAs pleaded to the chief minister not to attend it, but he ignored them. The MLAs boycotted the event.
Similarly, in Ratnagiri district, Yogesh Kadam of the Sena defeated Sanjay Kadam in Dapoli in the 2019 elections. But Ajit Pawar has been helping Sanjay to undermine Yogesh, who has been complaining about not getting adequate support from his party.
Those who have not joined the Shinde camp also have not been happy. Deepak Kesarkar, an MLA from Sindhudurg district, openly supports Shinde’s demand that the party snap ties with the NCP and the Congress.
The NCP was the Sena’s main rival when it was in alliance with the BJP, as they mostly contested against each other, while BJP candidates fought against Congress candidates. The fact remains that in 45-odd constituencies Sena MLAs might have to fight NCP rebels, aided by Pawar, in 2024, even if both are in alliance.
The Thackerays can blame only themselves for the mess. Uddhav and Aditya were inaccessible to not just Sena legislators but also most ministers. Sharad Pawar and Congress leader Balasaheb Thorat, on the other hand, are available on the next day for meetings. Even Sharad Pawar got angry a few months ago when Uddhav skipped meetings on a few occasions. During the Covid crisis, it was said that the chief minister did not even take calls from Health Minister Rajesh Tope. He sent a text to Tope to leave a message with his personal assistant.
Shinde has more personal grouses. There has been constant efforts to downsize him in the party and the government. He was elected legislative party leader in 2019 and he hoped to become chief minister as Uddhav till then had maintained that he would make a common Shiv Sainik chief minister. Shinde had no complaints when Uddhav became chief minister as he was clearly the second in command. But the induction of Aditya Thackeray to the cabinet upset the hierarchy. Soon Aditya and minister Anil Parab began interfering with Shinde’s urban development portfolio. Instructions were given to Shinde not to take any major decision without Aditya or Uddhav’s consent. He was not even given a freehand in appointments of bureaucrats in his bastion, Thane. Recently, Shinde was told that the upcoming municipal corporation elections would have to fought in alliance with the NCP.
During the planning of the Rajya Sabha and MLC elections, Shinde was treated just as another legislator, and all the election management was done by Varun Sardesai and Suraj Chavan, close aides of Aditya from the Yuva Sena. Despite being legislative party leader, he was kept out of meetings of the Thackerays and Parab.
Shinde’s revolt can lead to many possible scenarios in Maharashtra. Uddhav recommending dissolution of the assembly to the governor is a likely possibility. But Governor B.S. Koshyari may not accept it. He will consult legal experts and could ask the government to prove majority on the floor of the house.
If the governor asks the chief minister to face the floor test, a special session of the state legislature will be called. The Shiv Sena will issue whips and try all out to woo the rebel MLAs. If Shinde manages to get 37 of 55 Sena MLAs, his group will not face anti-defection law provisions and the government will fall. If he fails to get 37, the Shiv Sena leadership will deal with rebels under anti-defection law provisions.
If Shinde challenges the whip and his removal as legislative party leader, it could lead to a long legal battle, as a legislative party leader can be removed only after a meeting of all party MLAs.
If he has the support of 37 legislators, Shinde could also form a separate group and join hands with BJP to form the government in Maharashtra. If he cannot manage 37, those who are with him can resign and remain absent on the day of floor test, thus reducing the strength of the house. If the strength of the house comes down from 287 to say 261, the majority mark will be 131. The BJP already has the support of 134 MLAs, as proven during legislative council elections.
Eknath Shinde’s journey from being a common Shiv Sainik to Uddhav Thackeray’s chief troubleshooter and to his chief troublemaker has taken him to a point of no return. What remains to be seen is whether Shinde sinks or sails.
—With Nachiket Kelkar