EVERYONE IS FLYING SOLO this time in Manipur.
In a major blow to the ruling BJP, one of its main allies in the North-East Democratic Alliance—the Naga People’s Front (NPF)—has decided to fight alone in 15 seats that have a Naga population in Manipur. Of the 15, 11 are dominated by Nagas, and if the BJP’s alliance with the NPF had remained, it could have swept the polls.
Manipur has 60 assembly seats, of which 40 are in the valley and the rest in the hills. Apart from the Hindu Meitis, two major tribes have their presence in the valley and the hill districts—Kukis and Nagas, both of which are Christians, but follow different sects. Kukis belong to the Orthodox Presbyterian Church, whereas the Nagas belong to the Council of Baptist Churches in Northeast India. Both the tribes have often resorted to violence over land and other social disputes in the hill districts.
The Kukis have been Congress supporters, with the community producing many a Congress stalwart. To counter that, the Nagas found a political ally in the BJP. The NPF has been extending crucial support to the BJP-led government in Manipur for five years. It was thanks to the NPF that the N. Biren Singh government managed to retain power as it came under fire from within the party and from its other ally, the National People’s Party.
But that was six months ago. Today, the NPF’s support for the BJP is not very forthcoming. “It is because of the attitude of the Central government towards us,” says Honreikhui Kashung, general secretary of the NPF in Manipur. “We are alarmed and shaken by the way they killed innocent Nagas in Mon district of Nagaland, and then refused to do away with the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. The BJP-led Central government must pay the price for it.”
He, however, adds that the party “did not want the BJP to be punished by the Nagas as they are still better than the Congress”. But it is learning its lessons from Bengali politicians, he says. “The way they taught the BJP a lesson is a learning for us,” says Kashung. “We would also like to teach the same lesson to the BJP. BJP leaders in Delhi were humbled by Mamata Banerjee.”
Kashung says they are talking to smaller parties like the NPP. The Mon massacre has brought them closer to Kukis, too. The NPF is even considering supporting the Congress if the latter comes close to forming a government.
In 2017, the Congress emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats and was just three short of majority. But the NPF and the NPP, which had four MLAs each, supported the BJP, which had 21 MLAs. The Nagas were angry with the Okram Ibobi Singh government and deputy chief minister Gaikhangam, a prominent Naga leader who was also the home minister. Gaikhangam had taken action against Naga extremists, earning the wrath of the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Isak-Muivah), which is in peace talks with the Union government. The NSCN (IM) and the NSCN (Khaplang) tried to assassinate Ibobi Singh several times. The NPF was also against the Congress owing to its continuous support to the Kukis.
Costly error: The graves of 12 people killed in Mon on December 4 | AP
But the NPF is not ruling out a post-poll alliance with the BJP. “We are not saying that we will not support the BJP after the election, if the situation arises,” says Kashung. “But that support would be conditional, unlike before. The BJP undervalued the development in hilly areas, like the Congress. The chief minister is not responsible for that; the Union government is. We will sit with the Union government and seek its promise in writing. We would also like to see the Mon firing culprits punished and the AFSPA withdrawn from Manipur in a phased manner. Only then will we consider supporting the BJP again. The only positive thing we will say about the BJP is that it led a stable government, even though a coalition, in Manipur.” And for that the NPF would credit the chief minister.
The conflict with the Kukis, too, was about to end, thanks to Biren Singh, says NPF. “Biren worked hard to bring peace,” says Kashung. “He has been continuously working for the growth of Nagas. But what else would he do if the Union government pressured him to do otherwise. We understand his problem.”
The BJP admits there has been a gap in the development in the hills and the valley. “But that was solely because of the conflict between Biren Singh and another aspiring CM candidate Th. Biswajit Singh, who is the rural development minister,” says a party general secretary. Also, in the Naga-dominated Tamenglong district, a senior NPF leader, Athuan Abonmei, was killed during an alleged police firing, leading to huge resentment among the Nagas against the BJP. Though the BJP took action, like transferring the deputy commissioner and suspending the police officials on duty, it did little to pacify the Nagas.
Biren Singh, in an interview to THE WEEK, had said that the hills would be his priority once they come back to power.
Meanwhile, the United Naga Council, a civil society organisation, has asked the NPF to rein itself in. While the UNC agrees that the BJP erred, it says that it is dealing with the Union government separately. “We have boycotted Republic Day this year, and will boycott Independence Day, too, if there is no concrete solution,” says Senthon Stephen, information secretary, UNC. “But how could we forget that it was the BJP that brought peace in our region? During the Congress rule, Manipur was constantly burning. But during the BJP’s time, calm prevailed as it addressed the issues of the Nagas. Yes, the Mon episode has soured the grand initiative of the Biren Singh government, but we must understand that he is not responsible for it.”
National BJP leaders understand the situation. Though they have decided to go alone in the Naga-dominated areas, they are also working on extending an olive branch to the NPF. The BJP has inducted some prominent Naga leaders into the party in the last few years. It has pressed its Nagaland unit to have a discussion with the NSCN(IM), so that the latter can ask Nagas to vote for the BJP.
One of the prominent Naga leaders in the BJP fold is Gaidon Kamei, who would be fighting against Congress heavyweight Gaikhangam from Noney seat. “Some discussion is going on with NSCN(IM),”says Kamei. “I am also aggrieved over what happened in Mon. But the Nagas would never forget the development and peace that lasted overall. Manipur was never as peaceful as it has been in the last five years. There is an international conspiracy to oust the BJP to turn Manipur into what it used to be earlier.”
The Narendra Modi government formed a Special Investigation Team to probe the incident. The Army, too, is carrying out its own probe. The committee has travelled extensively to Mon district and is talking to eyewitnesses. “They are also video recording the statements of villagers and trying to identify whether our officers or jawans were at fault or not,” says a senior officer of the Eastern Command in Fort Williams, Kolkata.
Meanwhile, what has surprised many is the transfer of Eastern Army Commander Lt General Manoj Pande to Army Headquarters. Pande, who is from Engineering Corps, will take over as vice chief of Army staff. “It is debatable whether he received a promotion or was transferred for what happened in Mon,” says a defence ministry official. “As far as seniority is concerned, he is junior to Northern Army Commander Lt General Y.K. Joshi, who might replace General M.M. Naravane a couple of months later. A commander from the Engineering Corps becoming Army chief is rare.”
So far, the BJP is targeting five of the 11 Naga-dominated seats—Chandel, Noney, Jiribam, Ukhrul and Senapati. NSCN(IM), which mostly consists of Tangkhul Nagas (predominantly Manipuri Naga), has a huge say in these seats. However, the BJP is trying to win maximum seats in the valley. But there, too, it will have to fight Conrad Sangma’s NPP, which has good organisation on ground. And, the Congress, under its three prominent leaders—Ibobi Singh from the Meitis, T.N. Haokip from the Kukis, and Gaikhangam from the Nagas—will put up a formidable challenge.
So, is Manipur heading towards a split verdict? “It is likely,” says social activist Kshetrimayum Gunamani, “even if the BJP breaks the Congress.”
The BJP will have to win 25 to 30 seats from the valley on its own, which, say political observers, looks difficult, if not impossible. Or, Union Home Minister Amit Shah will have to come to Imphal to negotiate with the Nagas. Shah may also have to make another renewed deal with Sangma, the new flame in Manipur politics today.
Post polls, it could very well be a case of ‘birds of a feather flock together’.