Punjab polls: AAP on the up

PTI12_31_2021_000196B Winning formula: AAP president Arvind Kejriwal and Sangrur MP Bhagwant Mann, the party’s most popular local face, at a ‘peace march’ in Patiala | PTI

IT WAS JUST the kind of morale booster that the Aam Aadmi Party needed ahead of the assembly elections in Punjab. The party emerged with the largest number of seats in the recent Chandigarh municipal elections, shocking the incumbent BJP and giving the Congress a reality check ahead of the assembly polls.

It was described by the AAP leaders as the “trailer” before the assembly elections, and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal—the face of the party’s campaign—led a victory procession in Chandigarh. It may be argued that the civic poll results in the Union territory, a largely urban terrain, cannot be extrapolated to a state-wide election. But the results did give a fillip to the AAP’s campaign, despite the setback the party later received as it lost to the BJP in the fight for the mayor’s post.

The AAP, which is believed to have missed the bus in the assembly elections in 2017 because of certain missteps, is once again viewed as a party that can emerge as the dark horse. Experts believe the party is primarily gaining from a deep discontentment among the people towards the traditional powers, the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).

The party’s electoral journey in the state so far has been quite uneven. It began with a surprise haul of four seats in the Lok Sabha elections in 2014. The party was seen as a frontrunner in the state polls in 2017, before it ended up with just 20 seats and got the consolation prize of becoming the main opposition party. However, the AAP went through a rather bad patch after that, the period marked by poll debacles and the defection of state leaders.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the party had a vote share of 23.72 per cent. It got around 24 per cent votes in the assembly elections in 2017. However, the vote share dipped to just 7.46 per cent in the 2019 general elections. Also, while the party won 20 seats in the 2017 state polls, it is now left with just 11 MLAs.

However, amid the messy affair that the Punjab polls have become—as a result of the chaos in the ruling Congress, the breakup of the SAD-BJP alliance and the various twists and turns in the political scene over the past several months—the AAP is seen as a party that has managed to keep its head above water and carry out a well-charted campaign.

The AAP’s campaign, helmed by Kejriwal, is based on the belief that the people want to vote for change this time. The party’s main slogan is “Ik Mauka Kejriwal Nu (Give one chance to Kejriwal)”. He has unveiled in a step-wise manner a slew of “Kejriwal’s guarantees”, which involve promises on electricity and water supply, health, education, employment and women empowerment. The promises include 300 units of free electricity, free health care for all and Rs1,000 monthly payment to all women above 18.

The AAP, according to Ashutosh Kumar, chairperson, department of political science, Panjab University, could gain from the people’s anger against the traditional parties. “The people of Punjab are in a very bad situation,” he says. “They blame the Congress and Akalis for the mess that the state is in. They want to teach them a lesson…. Agricultural income is on the decline. The youth does not have employment. There is a strong belief among the people that the Congress and the Akalis do not have the will to rid the state of the drug menace.”

The AAP is perceived as having learned from the mistakes it made last time. The NRI support has been kept at bay to dispel the notion that the party is supported by Khalistan sympathisers. That is believed to have resulted in the Hindu votes drifting away from the party. The party has also promised a Sikh chief minister for the state. Since Kejriwal was the face of the campaign in 2017, people believed that he was the de-facto chief-minister face, and they were not ready to have a non-Sikh, non-Punjabi person at the helm in the state.

The Congress’s decision to bring Charanjit Singh Channi at the helm is learned to have been dictated by the feedback from the ground that the AAP was gaining traction, and was eating into the Congress’ dalit support base.

“The AAP is confident of winning in this election primarily because the people feel cheated by the Congress and the Akali Dal,” says Harpal Singh Cheema, leader of opposition in the Punjab assembly. “Promises were made that the culprits in the sacrilege issue or those responsible for the drugs menace would be punished. But till date, none of the culprits has been brought to book.”

Political analyst Harjeshwar Pal Singh, however, says that the AAP is yet to overcome issues like the absence of strong local leadership and organisational structure in the state. “The party in Punjab continues to depend heavily on the Delhi team,” he says. “Punjab has a very strong regional element, and the perception that the AAP is a Delhi-based party could hurt its chances.”

Also, there is a discussion on the AAP not having declared a chief ministerial candidate yet, despite Kejriwal having given a public assurance as he kicked off the Punjab campaign a few months ago. There is speculation on whether the party will ultimately announce Bhagwant Mann—a crowd-puller and the party’s most popular local face—as its chief minister face.

The AAP sources say that the party faces a dilemma about declaring a chief minister face since Kejriwal has been getting good traction. There is a fear that announcing a CM face would take the focus off Kejriwal and the other person would be compared with the bigwigs who represent the other parties. It is also felt that Kejriwal has been successful in convincing the people that a local face would be the chief minister if the party wins, even as he leads the campaign.

Kejriwal is being cautious—a victory in Punjab can be a springboard for his party onto the centre stage in national politics; a failure can mean a major setback to its ambitions to spread outside Delhi.

TAGS