Lakhimpur Kheri could spoil Yogi’s election plans

PTI1_20_2020_000117B Tough task: The Lakhimpur Kheri incident will pose a major challenge for Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath | PTI

On October 3, eight people were left dead in what has been the sourest incident in the recent history of Uttar Pradesh’s sugar bowl—Lakhimpur Kheri. The FIR lodged in the case alleges that Union Minister Ajay Misra’s son Ashish Misra and around 20 unidentified persons fired on farmers and drove three vehicles through a protest padyatra. A judicial inquiry on the violence has been announced by the Uttar Pradesh government, and a facile peace brokered.

Among those killed was a local television journalist, Raman Kashyap. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has tried to douse the flames of the incident swiftly—most notably by cutting off all opposition access to the district and shutting down the internet in the immediate aftermath. There is also an apparent nod to providing monetary compensation and a job for the bereaved families. However, farmers, as a group, are unlikely to let the matter go. Protests have been reported from different states. In Haryana, another BJP-ruled state, Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar has been called out for making such remarks on protesting farmers that border on the seditious. Other patent BJP narratives, too, have followed—for instance, in widespread sharing of videos and social media posts that offer “evidence” about the “violent” farmers.

Lakhimpur Kheri, however, will leave a bitter after-taste for this government as it readies to face an assembly election early next year. It does not help that the protesting farmers have achieved their greatest symbolic closeness to the state’s capital, as Lakhimpur Kheri falls in the Lucknow division. It also does not help that Misra is a Brahmin, and taking away his ministerial post—one of the demands of the farmers—will cement the perception that this government is against the caste.

Lakhimpur Kheri district is part of the Terai belt—a water-rich, fertile, lowland region. All its eight MLAs are from the BJP. That the incident can scald the party’s prospects in the region was made clear by BJP MP Varun Gandhi’s call for strict action against the perpetrators followed by the sharing of a (as yet unverified) video which shows a car mowing down peaceful farmers.

Sudhir Panwar, a professor at Lucknow University and president of the Kisan Jagriti Manch (a farmers’ awareness forum), said there is a possibility of an exodus of ticket hopefuls from the BJP in the coming months. “There is no time left for Yogi to appease the farmers,” he said. Panwar, who has been a member of the state’s planning commission, added that the Samajwadi Party could be the biggest gainer of the fallout. Even if the government were to try drastic course correction, Panwar said it would not make a difference due to its entrenched image. According to him, the “solutions” offered by the government in the Lakhimpur Kheri case had no bearing on the farming community and the occupation.

Independent researcher Navsharan Singh, who has been following the agitation closely, said that while the protests were spreading in the state, Lakhimpur Kheri would add significantly to its mobilisation. “The kisan panchayat of September 24 in Sitapur (just around 85km from Lucknow) was attended by almost 20,000 people but was scantily reported by the media,” she said. “What the Lakhimpur incident has achieved is that a government which functions with impunity has negotiated almost immediately. Though the government spins the narrative, it will be hard to paper over these deaths.” Singh added that the spread of the movement is accompanied by an addition of local issues to the core demands. For instance, in Sitapur, farmers were vocal about the stray cattle problem.

Satendra Kumar, a professor at the Govind Ballabh Pant Social Science Institute, Prayagraj, said that the fixes made by the government were temporary while the woes of the farmers were long-standing. “The government should be compassionate to the distress of farmers and handhold them to mitigate some of its problems,” he said. Such handholding, Kumar said, could include a mix of quick and long-term solutions. In the former category, for instance, would fall packages for shifting to multi-crop farming while the latter would include investment in agricultural research.

The state government, he added, could take a regional approach to stem any fallout in the forthcoming elections—for example, paying arrears of sugarcane growers who are concentrated in western UP and the Terai belt.

Santosh Kumar, member of the state committee of the Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM)—a coalition of over 40 farmer unions—said that while there was a strong undercurrent of support throughout the state for the farmers’ agitation despite physical presence being limited to the farmers of western UP, Lakhimpur Kheri would change this. “Historically erstwhile Avadh has been the centre of farmers revolts in the region,” he said. “What happened in Lakhimpur Kheri puts the region yet again in the centre of the agitation.”

One of the SKM’s immediate plans is to throng Lucknow on October 18. “This is not just a farmers’ movement,” said Kumar. “Daily wagers, manual labourers, small traders and the youth are bearing the impact of rising prices, corporate muscle and unemployment.” No matter how the farmers’ protests pan out in the coming months and impact politics, it will be difficult to wash away the blood curse of Lakhimpur Kheri.