In 2016, the BJP made massive gains by announcing Sarbananda Sonowal as its chief minister candidate for Assam midway into the state election campaign. The party had held off declaring a face for the top post, and there was speculation that Himanta Biswa Sarma, who had recently defected from the Congress, could be the top man. Voters were confused. Modi was not a widely popular face in the state, and there was no clarity on who the party’s poster boy would be.
Then BJP president Amit Shah ended the speculation by naming Sonowal as the party’s choice. Shah was impressed by Sonowal’s streetfighter image, and his efforts to weed out illegal foreigners in the state. The BJP won handsomely, dethroning three-time Congress chief minister Tarun Gogoi.
With assembly elections in West Bengal due in April, the BJP finds itself in a similar situation. Another defector, this time from the Trinamool Congress, has emerged as a strong contender for the chief minister’s position. Mukul Roy is up against BJP state president Dilip Ghosh. The only difference is that, unlike in Assam, Modi is a popular face in Bengal.
Apparently, the thinking within the BJP is that announcing a chief minister candidate this early could backfire. But this does not mean a decision has not been made. Party sources told THE WEEK that the name has been finalised, and only four or five top leaders know about it.
As of now, Roy is BJP’s most crucial weapon in the battle against Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. He was one of the people who built the Trinamool Congress; he knows the weaknesses of his former colleagues. However, he has been reluctant to back Ghosh as chief minister. In fact, so apparent was the tussle between them that Roy suspended his party activities early this year.
He even went to the central leadership in Delhi seeking space to work independently within the party. Notably, in 2017, Shah had made it clear that Roy would be part of the central leadership of the party, and would help Ghosh in the 2019 elections.
The two did work together for a while, delivering the BJP’s biggest victory in the Lok Sabha elections last year—the party won 18 of 42 seats and lost six by fewer than 5,000 votes. With Modi as its face, the party won 40 per cent of the votes, just three points short of the Trinamool Congress.
The friction began when it was time to take credit. While Ghosh’s loyalists portrayed him as a mass leader, Roy’s supporters (mostly Trinamool defectors) painted him as the game-changer.
So, as it stands, the party has reportedly decided to fight the elections with Modi as its face. Said the BJP co-in-charge for Bengal Suresh Pujari: “[We had to name chief minister candidates in] Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh as there the governments were 15 years old. In Bengal, where we won only three seats last time, there is no point in naming anybody. We will fight the election in the name of Modi ji.”
The BJP’s central leadership is wary of announcing a local face. Matched against Banerjee’s strong image, the candidate might not measure up. Also, Modi has told the party that, among the handful of states going to elections soon, he would devote the most time to Bengal. At his instance, Shah is directly overseeing the party affairs in Bengal and has set up an office in Kolkata’s New Town area, near Ghosh’s office-bungalow.
According to the BJP’s constitution, the president has maximum power. So, Ghosh would lead from the front. However, BJP national president J.P. Nadda recently made Roy national vice president. An election in-charge, who would control the candidate selection alongside Ghosh, is yet to be named. The question is: Will it be Roy?
As a party vice president, Roy would gain more stature and can work independently. In that regard, Modi and Shah seem to have created a balance in the state unit.
Another position to be filled soon is that of the state in-charge. Pujari said Nadda, advised by Shah, would declare the new in-charges for all the states soon. “I have expressed to the party that I may be relieved as a co-in-charge (he is one of three) in Bengal,” he said. “My party won my seat (Bargarh, Odisha) for the first time and I have a lot of responsibilities in several committees in Parliament. But yes, I would campaign in a massive way, and I can assure you that a tough man would replace me in Bengal.”
In another interesting development, former state party president Tathagata Roy, who was till recently the Meghalaya governor, has returned to active politics. But as per party sources, there have been a lot of delays in the re-induction process. Roy even went to Delhi to meet B.L. Santosh, the BJP general secretary for organisation, to iron out the kinks.
Then, on September 26, Trinamool defector Anupam Hazra replaced Rahul Sinha as national secretary. By dropping Sinha, a stalwart in state politics and a friend of Tathagata Roy, the party leadership sent out a clear message to Tathagata and other veterans—they can work in the party, but without any “greed or aspiration”.
Apart from Tathagata Roy, two other Bengalis working at the national level are reportedly keen on becoming chief minister. So, Ghosh is facing challenges from various quarters. On not being declared the man for the job, he said: “Did you think that Yogi Adityanath would be chief minister of Uttar Pradesh? Who would have thought that [BJP’s first] Haryana chief minister would be Manohar Khattar?”
Said state BJP vice president Biswapriya Roychowdhury: “Our biggest target is to win first.” The state’s Muslims would help with that, he added. “The reason for that would be looting by the Trinamool,” he said. “Through the Jan Dhan accounts, every woman received Rs500, twice. In Bengal, 40 lakh of the 53 lakh eligible women were Muslims. Trinamool workers went door to door and took a share of that money.”
Perhaps sensing this shift, Zameerul Hassan, the state president of the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, asked Banerjee to form an alliance. The AIMIM would contest 94 seats, the Trinamool, 200. “But, she has not accepted,” he said, adding that if the deal does not work out, the AIMIM would go it alone, which could be “dangerous” for Banerjee.
It is difficult to predict how Muslims in rural pockets would vote this time. The influential Furfura Darbar Sharif in Hooghly has openly revolted against Banerjee and her party, which has put her on the back foot. So much so that she has openly canvassed for Hindu votes by giving monthly allowance of Rs1,000 to Brahmin priests and Rs50,000 to each Durga Puja committee in the state. There are an estimated 53,000 such committees.
Amid such communal undertones, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh sarsanghchalak Mohan Bhagwat visited Kolkata on September 23. He met his pracharaks at Kolkata’s Keshav Bhavan and, according to RSS sources, admonished them for not doing enough during the pandemic. “Many pracharaks are part of the day-to-day activities of the BJP,” an RSS leader quoted Bhagwat as saying. “Do not meddle with the BJP’s party affairs in the district. If you have anything to say about BJP leaders and candidates, you should inform the state president.”
Bhagwat has asked the cadres to work on a war footing for the next six months. As part of the plan, Bhagwat has asked them to go to villages and tom-tom the party’s achievements, including the Ram temple and the Citizenship Amendment Act.
As for the BJP, Shah called the Bengal top brass to Delhi on October 1. “He sought a lot of information about the progress,” said Ghosh. “He will hit the ground soon and has asked us to begin the campaign before Durga Puja (late October).”
Party sources said that if the BJP gets a clear majority, chances are high that Ghosh would be the man for the chief minister’s job. If it is a hung assembly, Roy would be favoured for his ability to break opposition parties and bring in defectors, like Manipur Chief Minister N. Biren Singh (who had left the Congress for the BJP) had earlier done.
Regardless, the BJP is going all out in its mission to capture Bengal.