Sasikala | PTI
FOR SOME TIME now, Edappadi K. Palaniswami has been trying to establish himself as a leader tall enough to take on DMK president M.K. Stalin. And yes, for a while, he seemed to have won over the people with his policies, before Covid-19 struck. In the months since, he has been accused of coming up short, especially in the fight against the pandemic.
And now, he has to contend with the possibility of meeting a ghost from the past sooner than he had thought. On June 25, BJP member Aseervatham Achary tweeted: “Mrs Sasikala Natarajan is likely to be released from Parappana Agrahara Central Jail, Bangalore, on 14th August 2020. Wait for further updates.”
Sasikala, confidante of former chief minister J. Jayalalithaa, was convicted in a disproportionate assets case, and has been in jail since February 2017. Her sentence ends next February.
When THE WEEK asked Achary to elaborate on his tweet, he refused, saying, “I cannot divulge anything more on this. But I am sure about the date of release.”
Achary is known to be close to BJP leader Subramanian Swamy, who, of late, has been talking about Sasikala’s release and how she cannot be excluded from Tamil Nadu politics.
Sasikala completed 40 months and 16 days in prison at the end of June. Her term is 48 months. She had done time for the case in 1996 and 2004, for 13 and 22 days respectively. However, she was out on parole in October 2017 and March 2018, for five and 15 days, first to see her ailing husband, Natarajan, and later to attend his funeral.
A prisoner is eligible for remission only after serving two-thirds of the sentence. Generally, per prison rules, a reduction in sentence is based on conduct and employment in prison. In certain states like Karnataka, learning Kannada is also taken into account. According to the Karnataka Prison Rules 1974, a convict is eligible for six days of ordinary remission a month, or 72 days a year.
So, at the end of June 2020, Sasikala would have been eligible for 240 days of remission. Add to this the 35 days she had spent in jail earlier, in the same case, and Sasikala should be able to walk out of jail at least 275 days before February 14, 2021, the day her sentence ends.
Her advocate N. Raja Senthoor Pandian told THE WEEK: “By all means, Sasikala is eligible for a premature release. The eligibility came up in December 2019 itself. I have been continuously working for it. I met her on March 7 this year, before the lockdown began. [Since then], we have not been able to strategise as I have not met her.”
Even if she is granted early release, Sasikala would have to pay a fine of Rs10 crore, as per the Supreme Court judgment that put her in jail. Also, the allegations that Sasikala had bribed prison officials for preferential treatment, which IPS officer Roopa Moudgil had levelled, could also come up while Sasikala’s release is being considered.
“We are ready to pay the fine of Rs10 crore whenever we are asked to,” said Senthoor Pandian. Regarding allegations made by Moudgil, he said that the enquiry committee set up to investigate them, headed by IAS officer Vinay Kumar, had found no violation of prison rules.
Regardless, another stumbling block for Sasikala would be the Karnataka prison guidelines of 2014, which do not allow for the early release of a person booked for an economic offence, along with a handful of other crimes.
Close watch: Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami with Deputy Chief Minister O. Panneerselvam | AFP
Also, in an RTI reply to Bengaluru-resident T. Narasimha Murthy on June 6, the office of the chief superintendent of prisons said that “Multiple norms are encompassed to calculate the date of release for any given convict prisoner. For example, the date of release changes based on the fine payment status. Hence, we are unable to provide you with a precise date of release.”
In October 2019, while handing over the sanction papers to prematurely release 140 lifers at the Parappana Agrahara prison, N.S. Megharikh, then Karnataka DGP (prisons), had told a television channel, “The prisoners now being released belong to a different category of convicts; Sasikala was different as she was convicted under the Prevention of Corruption Act.”
Apparently, he was implying that the tag of “good conduct” would not be enough for Sasikala’s early release. Commenting on social media posts that hinted at Sasikala’s early release, he had said, “These are all motivated and false news.”
Senthoor Pandian, however, insisted that any prisoner who has completed two-thirds of the jail term becomes eligible for early release. “As per the Karnataka Prison Manual, the rights are bestowed on all prisoners,” he said. “[What has to be decided is] whether it is special remission or ordinary remission. There is no bar on remission for prisoners retained under the Prevention of Corruption Act. If suppose such a bar is sought to be imposed, the High Courts and the Supreme Court have intervened in the past to maintain parity for all prisoners.”
If she does walk out early, Sasikala could muddy the waters in a state facing elections in less than a year. On March 7, at a news conference in Coimbatore, Subramanian Swamy had said, “There will be changes in Tamil Nadu politics after her release. It will be difficult to exclude her from politics. She has experience, talent and a whole community behind her.”
Sasikala is said to know the pulse of the AIADMK cadres as she had steered the party from behind Jayalalithaa for two decades. Also, there is the image of Palaniswami and his deputy O. Panneerselvam, tears in their eyes, requesting her to take over the party at Poes Garden in 2016.
“Sasikala’s return will definitely bring about big changes in Tamil Nadu politics,” said former MLA P. Vetrivel, who is now with T.T.V. Dhinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, which was formed as a breakaway faction of the AIADMK in 2018. “She, along with T.T.V. Dhinakaran, can be the strong leaders who can give a tough fight to the DMK during the elections.” Incidentally, Dhinakaran, who is also said to be expecting his aunt Sasikala to return soon, did not react to Achary’s tweet. Sources said that Dhinakaran, now in Puducherry because of the lockdown, has not spoken to anyone on the legality of Sasikala’s remission.
“She will be a strength to the AIADMK,” said political analyst Tharasu Shyam. “But it depends on whether there will be pressure from the BJP or whether the existing AIADMK will accept her.”
The AIADMK has changed a lot since Sasikala went to jail. Both EPS and OPS, as co-coordinator and coordinator, have taken over all the powers vested in the party general secretary. “There will be no political impact when she comes out of prison,” Fisheries Minister D. Jayakumar told THE WEEK. “Be it the cabinet ministers or party executives or district secretaries or branch secretaries, at every level in the party, we have decided to do away with Sasikala and her family. [Anyway,] the Karnataka prison authorities have denied her early release.”
AIADMK sources said that, even after Achary’s tweet, no one in the party has bothered to talk about Sasikala. A senior minister from one of the prominent southern districts, who was once an ardent Sasikala supporter, said he wanted her to come back, but also that the party had been performing well in the past four years. “I do not know if her comeback would bring any changes in the party,” said the minister. “EPS will never want to give up his post or work under her.”
Besides, the AIADMK seems to have more urgent problems. The faction feuds have become more pronounced, and EPS, said sources, is struggling to keep the flock together. Even Stalin pointed this out at a recent news conference, saying that “the ministers should shed their egos”.
As for Sasikala, even an early return does not necessarily mean re-entry into active politics. She still faces a slew of other cases and, according to the Supreme Court sentence, cannot contest elections for another six years. “Sasikala’s alienation was a well-thought-out strategy by [Narendra] Modi and the BJP,” said political observer Raveenthran Duraisamy. “There will not be any going back. Sasikala is not a proven political force. In 2024, there may be a compromise between Dhinakaran and the BJP, excluding Sasikala. But no major change will happen in the run-up to the 2021 elections.”