Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee was once an avid traveller. But the 74-year-old former West Bengal chief minister is now confined to his house in Palm Avenue, Kolkata, because of deteriorating health and fading eyesight. Even so, he has suddenly become more active these days. Almost every day, senior leaders of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) in the state visit Bhattacharjee, a former Polit Bureau member and the architect of the unprecedented, albeit ill-fated, Left Front-Congress alliance ahead of the 2016 West Bengal assembly elections, for advice on stitching up an alliance with the Congress for the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
The desperation stems from the fact that the situation is grim for the Left Front, which had ruled West Bengal for 34 years. In the 2016 assembly elections, the front won 32 seats. The CPI(M) alone had more than five times that number in 2006. It had a combined vote share of about 26 per cent in 2016. For the first time since its formation in 1977, the Left Front had got less than 40 per cent of the votes in an assembly election. The situation in terms of Lok Sabha seats is equally bad (see graphics). Its two seats in 2014, both won by the CPI(M), were Raiganj in North Bengal and Murshidabad. Since then, the BJP has grown by leaps and bounds in both these constituencies.
For the Congress, too, the picture is not rosy. It had only four seats in the state in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections—Berhampore, Jangipur (Pranab Mukherjee’s seat, now held by his son Abhijit), and north and south Maldaha (formerly the Malda constituency). According to sources in the Congress, the party is hopeful, though not too sure, about its chances in Berhampore, where Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury has been winning since 1999. Everywhere else, there is uncertainty.
The fear of losing Malda is a surprise because it has been the Congress’s bastion in West Bengal. In the erstwhile Malda constituency, Congress candidates won 12 of 14 general elections from 1952 to 2004. It lost twice to the CPI(M). Congress strongman Abu Barkat Ataur Ghani Khan Choudhury, a close aide of Indira Gandhi, won in Malda from 1980 till 2004. After his death in 2006, the voters have been loyal to his family. In both 2009 and 2014, Choudhury’s brother Abu Hasem Khan and his niece Mausam Noor won from south and north Maldaha, respectively.
But on January 28, Noor resigned from the Congress and joined the Trinamool Congress. Though the 39-year-old was known to be close to Congress president Rahul Gandhi, she is believed to have ditched the party because of the massive strides made by the BJP in her constituency. If, as expected, it is going to be a fight between the Trinamool and the BJP, then it would be wise on Noor’s part, being a minority leader, to join the Trinamool. Speculation is rife that Abu Hasem will follow his niece to the Trinamool. But he is still with the Congress and is putting huge pressure on the party leadership to have an electoral understanding with the Trinamool to retain the Congress’s ‘Choudhury stronghold’ in Malda.
Many in the Congress and the Left Front fear that both parties may draw a blank in West Bengal. In 2016, the central leadership of the CPI(M)—the dominant partner in the Left Front—had openly criticised party leaders in West Bengal for allying with the Congress. But, last April’s party congress in Hyderabad, soon after the CPI(M) lost Tripura to the BJP, had a completely different atmosphere. Former Tripura chief minister Manik Sarkar, who had opposed any alliance with the Congress in the past, joined leaders from West Bengal, who were for an alliance with the Congress.
The party congress passed a resolution that to defeat the BJP, the CPI(M) would have to join other secular and democratic parties. However, the resolution classified both the BJP and the Congress as representatives of the bourgeoisie and stated that it cannot treat the Congress as an ally or partner. But, it clarified that the BJP was the main threat, given its link to the RSS, and that the Congress and the saffron party cannot be considered “equal dangers”. Based on this, the CPI(M) framed its new political stance: the main task is to defeat the BJP. Though this has to be done without allying with the Congress, there can be an understanding with all secular opposition parties.
CPI(M) central committee member Sujan Chakraborty told THE WEEK that “dialogue at [a] certain level has just started” between his party and the Congress about an electoral understanding in West Bengal. “Our party congress clearly mentioned what our priority is,” he said. “We need to defeat the BJP at the Centre and the Trinamool in Bengal. For that there might be some understanding with the Congress in the state. But I must mention that nothing concrete has been attained.” West Bengal Congress president Somen Mitra said that no official proposal had come from the CPI(M) about an alliance or understanding. “So, I have not confirmed anything to our president Rahul Gandhi,” Mitra said.
Speaking exclusively to THE WEEK, Mitra said that there were mixed reactions in the Congress about the potential alliance with CPI(M) or the left. He added that he had shared both the reactions with the party high command. However, most Congress leaders admit that without an alliance the party would be unable to appoint election agents in 50 per cent of the 74,000 booths in West Bengal. Moreover, just like the CPI(M), the Congress has also seen the BJP eating into its vote share in the state in recent years. A source confirmed that both sides have shown interest in an understanding in 22 of the 42 seats as they believe that “the other seats are unwinnable”.
Congress leader and Rajya Sabha MP Pradip Bhattacharya told THE WEEK: “Yes, there would be seat sharing, but no political alliance.” He clarified that there would be no joint campaign or manifesto. “But, we must and we will enter into electoral tactics with the Left Front in Bengal,” said Bhattacharya.
However, other members of the Left Front have cautioned the CPI(M) about allying with the Congress. The most vocal among them is the Revolutionary Socialist Party’s national general secretary Kshiti Goswami. “I have told the CPI(M) leaders to move cautiously,” Goswami told THE WEEK. “How can we forget the alliance in 2016, which was done hurriedly and without proper discussion? There was a lack of coherence in that alliance, which people rejected.” Goswami said the CPI(M) leaders had taken a unilateral decision without taking other members of the front such as the CPI, the RSP and the Forward Block into confidence. “And the result was that our workers at the grassroots level did not accept the alliance and many worked against it,” he said. “The Left Front was relegated to third place, while the Congress became the number two party in the assembly, despite having a lower vote share [12 more seats for the Congress; vote share: 12.25 per cent for Congress, 25.69 per cent for Left Front]. It was the lack of vision of the senior CPI(M) leaders which resulted in this.”
Goswami added that Congress candidates who had won with the help of left leaders later joined the Trinamool. “How could we forget Manas Bhuian who hugged [CPI(M) leader] Surjya Kanta Mishra during an election rally and then joined Trinamool Congress after the election,” he said. “Do we want to repeat such things?” Bhattacharya agreed with Goswami on the need to have discussions with all members of the Left Front. “We have to learn from last time’s mistakes,” he said. “So, now we would like to talk to all constituents of the Left Front. We do not want to seal the deal by just talking to the big partner, CPI(M).”
It is clear that Rahul Gandhi would have to listen to Congress leaders who favour an understanding with the left. If the Congress decides to march alongside the Left Front, it runs the risk of leaving the likes of Abu Hasem Khan Choudhury disgruntled. Abu Hasem told THE WEEK that he was unsure whether an alliance with the left would be functional at the grassroots level. According to sources, there is a backchannel discussion going on between him and the Trinamool. Choudhury refused to comment on the speculations. He only said: “I am sure that I will win at any cost.”