IN MARCH 2015, a source in Turkey informed Indian agencies that Dr Shahnawaz Alam, an Indian Mujahideen operative, was declared dead in Syria. The source had photos of Alam in Turkey before he crossed over. A special cell of the Delhi Police was keeping a close watch and a team was ready to travel in plain clothes just to confirm the news, but the plan was dropped. India did not want to risk diplomatic embarrassment, given the growing uncertainty in the region.
Soon after, there was information that Alam’s accomplices, Bada Sajid and Abu Rashid, were also killed. All three men from Azamgarh in Uttar Pradesh had fled India after the Batla House encounter in Delhi in 2008. They reached the Islamic State-held territory in late 2013 or early 2014 after spending time in Pakistan and Afghanistan, said senior police officers. Some others, such as Anwar Hussain and Shafi Armar from Bhatkal in Karnataka, were also reported dead.
The Azamgarh module, along with some like-minded operatives, was believed to have formed a splinter group of the Indian Mujahideen, called Ansar ut Tawhid, to fight alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan. But as IS influence among jihadists grew across the world, many reportedly shifted base to Syria and Iraq. By 2015, news of killings of many IS mercenaries started trickling in.
Alam’s death was important for security agencies as it meant another blow to the terror group that had its roots in the Students’ Islamic Movement of India. Since 2012, Saudi Arabia and the UAE had been deporting big catches such as Abdul Wahid Siddibappa, the alleged IM financier, and his mentor Fasih Mehmood. A few others, like alleged bomb-maker Tahseen Akhtar and Waqas, were also brought back to India with cooperation from neighbouring countries.
These deaths or arrests, however, did not kill the ideology. In 2016, a group of people from Kerala went to Afghanistan to join the Islamic State-Khorasan Province; some were even suspected to have reached Syria.
Ever since, Indian security agencies have been worried about Khorasan and Syria becoming a breeding ground for radicals fighting for the caliphate.
The entry of foreign terrorist fighters into Syria is being seen as a result of a tactical shift by Al Qaeda to expand and reach out to fragmented terror groups.
Therefore, the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its support groups, which overthrew the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, are being closely analysed.
Not ready to move on: Shadab Ahmad in Azamgarh; his son Shahnawaz, an Indian Mujahideen operative, was declared dead in Syria in 2015 | Sanjay Ahlawat
HTS chief Abu Mohammad al-Jolani (real name Ahmed al-Sharaa) was born in Saudi Arabia in 1982. His father was an oil engineer there till 1989 before the family returned to its homeland of Syria. Jolani had stints with Al Qaeda in Iraq and the IS, but he started distancing himself from them after he set up al-Nusra Front in 2011 to fight the Assad regime. In 2016, he renamed his group the Jabhat Fatah al-Sham before branding it Hayat Tahrir al-Sham the following year.
Indian agencies believe that the banners can be different, but the fluidity between terrorist organisations for tactical gains still exists in this region. “It has the potential to spill over and influence the radical space in the Indian subcontinent once again,” said a security official.
However, Talmiz Ahmad, former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman, said: “It is an overwhelmingly Syrian phenomenon. HTS has absolutely no connection with a transnational movement. Whether it is Islamic State in Syria, Khorasan or its online activities, there is no evidence to suggest large-scale influence or activity in India.”
Also, on the 22 or 23 people from Kerala who reportedly went to Raqqa to join the IS, he said: “Some may have died, some got arrested when they came back. We do not know their fate as the government has shared no information publicly. But after that, there hasn’t been any migration to the region in the past decade or so.”
Call of the radical: A police officer in Azamgarh shows a poster of suspected terrorists in the area | Sanjay Ahlawat
Similarly, the Islamic State of Khorasan, located in different parts of Afghanistan, evolved as an overwhelmingly Pakistani movement made up of splinter groups from Taliban. While there have been some sporadic acts of violence ascribed to the IS-K in the past few years, there has been no spillover into India, Ahmad pointed out.
He added that only a handful of people in the vast Indian diaspora in the Gulf were reported to Indian authorities for suspicious online activity. “Compare this to the Maldives or Norway, where hundreds were reported to have gone to Raqqa,” he said. “In fact, reports suggest that a large number of people entered from Europe and the US.”
Ahmad is optimistic about the impact of the rise of HTS and its support base in Syria. “The minority community in India has rejected the idea of the maximum,” he said. “What we need to be concerned about is cross-communal radicalisation. This means that because of the communalisation of one community, it has a mirror impact on the other community.”
What is of common concern to both the security and diplomatic community is the prolonged conflict Syria is staring at. “Assad’s ouster and assault on the military capacity of Syria can lead to a repeat of what we saw in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya,” warned Ahmad. “[Syria] is a large country, well populated and strategically located. And there will be a serious problem if the conflict continues.”
He recommended an Asian initiative by Delhi, involving Japan, China, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia, to prevent Syria from entering the league of broken countries where militant outfits are ruling the roost, especially with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts.
The time is also ripe for Delhi to learn from past mistakes―the experience in Afghanistan still hangs heavy in diplomatic circles. “Even when China and Russia were getting in touch with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, we were refusing to talk to them,” said K.P. Fabian, who served as first secretary in Iran during the revolution. “But India wasn’t the only one to go slow; even the west led by Washington dragged its feet in engaging the Taliban government. In diplomacy, you can still do business with your enemy, and here we are only talking of keeping strategic concerns and people’s interests in mind.”
Notably, Jolani’s track record in Idlib―which al Nusra captured in 2015―was different from the image he had previously built. “He gave importance to governance over extremism, defeated Al Qaeda and IS in the power game and reached out to the minorities in ways that drew acknowledgment if not complete support,” said Fabian. “Whatever be the case, it will be premature to say it is the resurrection of the IS or Al Qaeda with the ouster of Assad by Jolani’s forces. There are also no mass protests by the pubic demanding Assad’s return.”
The big question is whether India will be able to balance its security and diplomatic interests at the same time. This would only be possible, said a senior security official, if Delhi is able to leverage any presence it has in the region to steer its interests in a holistic way. “This is the reason we need to build a stronger presence in the region,” said the official.
What is also important is for India to not take its eye off the ball. On November 21, a Syrian delegation visited Delhi and talked about capacity building and joint efforts in strengthening the pharmaceutical industry. In less than a week, the ministry of external affairs asked all Indians to stay in touch with its embassy after Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Daraa and finally Damascus fell to the rebels.
While the debate around battles being fought between rebel and regime forces continues in strategic war rooms, the tiny village of Sanjarpur in Uttar Pradesh―once linked to extremist ideology and Syrian battlefields―is oblivious to the turn of events. Shahnawaz Alam’s family denies any news of him entering killing fields in far-off lands. “Earlier, they used to say he has gone to Pakistan, but a few years back some police officers told us that he died in Afghanistan,” said Shadab Ahmad alias Mister, his father. “After that, someone said it was Iraq and then they said he died in Syria. It is all a campaign to malign us.”
Ahmad, a father of ten, runs a cloth shop in Sanjarpur and addresses his eldest as ‘doctor saheb’; he is proud that his son completed his MBBS, in Allahabad.
Alam’s teacher Masihuddin Ansari, who runs a coaching centre in Sanjarpur, taught most of the boys of that generation. “Their lives revolved around the 200-square-yard playground here,” he said. “To think they could find their way to Syria is something I cannot comprehend.”
The security agencies cannot be so sure. And so, they are revisiting reams of paper narrating confessions of jailed terrorists and dossiers tracing their journeys to the lands of Al Qaeda and the IS.