ON APRIL 7, the Supreme Court of Pakistan declared that the ruling by the deputy speaker of the National Assembly to dismiss the no-confidence motion against the prime minister was “contrary to the constitution”. So it overturned the ruling. In a landmark 5-0 verdict, the court restored the National Assembly and ordered the vote on the motion to be held on April 9. Imran Khan was finally voted out after a day marked by fiery speeches, spirited debates on the alleged ‘foreign conspiracy’, the resignation of the speaker of the National Assembly and the decision by the supreme court and the Islamabad high court to open their doors at midnight.
Shehbaz Sharif, the younger brother of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, was elected prime minister on April 11. With Khan out of power, it will be interesting to see what his political strategy is going to be in the days to come. Heeding his call to protest against the “imported government”, thousands of his supporters took to the streets in several cities. Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), also announced en masse resignations from the National Assembly, which some analysts see as a strategy to force early elections.
Television journalist Shahzad Iqbal said that after being ousted from the prime minister’s post, Khan has hit his sweet spot, which is the opposition chair. “In the past, he has proved to be successful in narrative-building politics, be it against drones, rigging or corruption. He is very much on the same path again,” said Iqbal. “The narrative he is building now is that a nexus between a foreign power (the US) and the opposition led to his ouster. His party members and supporters are openly chanting slogans, Jo America ka yaar hai, woh gaddaar hai (Those who are America’s friends are traitors).”
Khan has realised that his political survival depends on early elections. “He knows that he has lost the support of the west, the establishment, bureaucracy, media, lawyer forums and civil society. Therefore, he sees no point in doing conventional politics. He thinks his only hope is his popularity,” said Iqbal. The response he is receiving from public gatherings, and the poor credibility of the mainstream parties in the new government, have further emboldened him. “There is no doubt that Khan has re-energised his support base, but the absence of the establishment’s backing and the mismatch between his promises and his performance will make it difficult for Khan to rise again to the throne this soon,” he said.
Senior journalist Arifa Noor said Khan was counting on creating pressure on the streets to force elections. “He is confident of his popular support and the inability of an unwieldy coalition to last for long. He also realises that there are some differences in opinion within the military ranks which could add to the pressure.”
For Shehbaz, meanwhile, the first couple of months would be crucial as he tries to chart a different course from the Khan government. “Should Shehbaz fail to do so, especially regarding the economy, it would provide Khan all the talking points he needs to corral support and build himself back up as the frontrunner in the next elections,” said political analyst Benazir Shah. “Also, poor performance by Shehbaz could lead to the electables (politicians with their own support base) and smaller political parties, which are standing by his side now, jumping ship.”
Khan will work to energise his cadres and also to add to his support base. The successful protest demonstrations organised by his supporters show that he has managed to get his core support back, riding on the narrative that he was forced out of power through an international conspiracy. “He will, however, struggle to get the support of the neutral voters this time because of his government’s poor performance for the past three and a half years,” said television anchor Adil Shahzeb.
The lack of support from the army will prove to be another major handicap. Senior journalist Ajmal Jami said Khan’s core support would not be enough to get him back to power. “Khan might get people out on the streets with his anti-American narrative, but, historically, it has never worked in Punjab, Pakistan’s biggest electoral province. He might get simple majority in his stronghold, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and a few seats in Karachi, but that will not be enough for his party to return to power in Islamabad,” said Shahzeb.
Khan seems to have convinced his supporters that his political opponents are traitors conspiring with Americans to oust him. He has also unleashed anti-establishment sentiment among his supporters who now openly resent the army for remaining ‘neutral’ while Khan was being toppled, according to Jami. “Khan’s anti-US mantra might get him public support, but it will also become a binding force for the new coalition government,” said Jami. “How long will he be able to sustain this pressure and how long can Shehbaz respond to it through better governance and economic policies will be the most important thing to watch out for in the days to come.”
Sarfraz is a Lahore-based journalist.