Like-minded and China are not usually put in the same sentence when speaking from the Indian context. Isn’t China our headache number one? But, when it comes to climate change negotiations, India and China are more together than against. The two Asian giants form the main force behind the Like-Minded Developing Countries (LMDC), which has been fighting for a greater share of the world’s remaining carbon budget. More often than not, India and China together face up to the bullying tactics of the global north, or the developed countries.
India and China are both ambitious countries, seeking a larger share of the global pie in almost every sphere. While there are great differences in their political outlook, and even in the way the rest of the world regards them, when it comes to development needs, the two are on the same page and seen so by the world. “The top emitters,” is how the dragon and elephant are referred to by the developed world. The truth though is that US is second to China in overall emissions among independent countries; India comes third.
This, however, is only partly true. When it comes to per capita emissions of carbon dioxide, India’s share is a very small 1.9 tonne per person annually, and China’s is only 7.38. The top per capita emitters are the oil-rich Middle East nations, led by Qatar (37.29). The next group of high per capita emitters is the developed west, with Canada (18.5) and the US (18.6) leading. Even South Korea has higher per capita emissions than China, whose figures are more on par with the European Union (7.16).
A more just way of looking at emissions is historically, given that the west had a 150-year headway in polluting the world, the price of which the poorer nations are paying inequitably today. As J.R. Bhatt, scientist in the environment ministry and part of the negotiation team for the Glasgow Conference of the Parties Summit, recently noted, the world owes India $15 trillion for past emissions that have led to present-day climate crisis events. Yet, an unfair finger-pointing has China and India as targets.
Even more unfair is the fact that while both countries are coal dependant for development, China’s present share in emissions—26 per cent—is higher than the entire developed world combined, while India’s is just 6.6 per cent. Yet, they are clubbed together.
On the climate change stage, both countries are positioning themselves in the leadership role for developing nations, notes Aparna Roy of the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), with both strongly believing in the common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) that the Paris summit agreed upon. They are together in demanding more climate finance as per the agreed $100 billion commitment per year by 2020 that the developed nations agreed upon but have not met fully. Regarding the demand for technology transfer for clean energy solutions, India is far more vocal than China, which is already the provider of low-cost technology products to the world.
Anjal Prakash, lead author of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report, says India has positioned itself as a responsible player, whose template could be emulated by other developing nations. India’s position is that while it will opt for renewable energy, it will keep coal as the mainstay. Also, that India cannot be held to ransom to “do more” to expiate the past sins of the developed world.
Though India is a democracy, where a change in government can lead to a change in policy, its trajectory on combating climate change has been consistent across governments, and its green ambitions have gradually risen. China, on the other hand, has shifted goalposts, stressing on renewables at one time and now insisting that it will not phase out coal.
The global attitude is gradually getting more sympathetic towards India, with everyone from COP26 president Alok Sharma of the UK to US special envoy John Kerry “understanding” India’s need for developmental space. India’s track record is commendable. It is the only G20 country on record to meet its nationally determined commitments. India’s leadership role in kick-starting the International Solar Alliance and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure is seen as commendable. How much of this understanding translates into actual climate financing and tech transfer is another story.
Though China leads the world in manufacture of solar panels and batteries, it gets less sympathy from the world. The sheer scale of its pollution is overwhelming the world right now. Chandra Bhushan of the International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology points out that being clubbed with China sometimes works against India, given the disparity in emissions. Also, the general anti-China sentiment in the world, owing to its expansionist policies and scant regard for a rules-based order, rubs off during climate discussions, too. China’s aggressive geoengineering technology for weather modification, says Roy, also has the world wary. India is particularly concerned over Chinese experiments to bring rain to certain areas, given the shared border and the risk of calamities affecting India.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the leaders’ summit will not just read out India’s report card, but also make some announcements. India is clear that it has no intention of abiding by any net zero (emissions) timeline. India’s stand is clear: We will do our best, but not at the cost of our development. The world too should stick to its previous commitments instead of shifting goalposts with new slogans of net zero or methane pledge. China’s president Xi Jinping will not be present at the meet; he has not travelled abroad since the pandemic began. Top leaders of two other big emitters—Brazil and Russia—too will not be present.
At the first ministerial summit (virtual) of the LMDC, the members agreed that their unity and strength were fundamental at the climate summit to preserve the interests of the global south in the fight against climate change. The overarching aim was to ensure that their domestic policy space was not constrained even as they addressed climate change. “It is important for India and China to put up a united front at the negotiations to counter the bullying from the developed nations,” says Prakash. At the G20 ministerial meeting on climate change in July in Italy, India and China were of almost one voice, both refusing to agree on two hotly debated points—phasing out coal and upping the ambition of the Paris Agreement to lower global temperature rise. How well will the dragon and the elephant tango in Glasgow?