The more things change, the more they remain the same. This would be probably true of the Gordian knot that is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that has brought the interplay of global powers right into the battle-ravaged West Asian geography.
Since October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants ran amuck in southern Israel, to the ceasefire that was inked this January 15, 45,936 Palestinians were killed as against 1,200 Israelis (till January 8, according to UN figures). The unofficial figures are of course much more, as bodies of Palestinians continue to be recovered from the rubble.
But most agree that peace is uncertain at best. Talmiz Ahmad, strategic thinker and former Indian diplomat who has served in a number of West Asian countries, told THE WEEK: “This is a temporary truce. It only brings to an end a bloody 15-month-long conflict. Because of pressure from the Trump administration in the US, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu finally obliged to end the military campaign. Netanyahu had no such intentions whatsoever.”
There were other reasons, too. “It (the ceasefire pact) came in handy as the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is overstretched with operations in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, with the risk of another big operation in Iran,” said Kalarickal Pranchu Fabian, a former Indian diplomat who has served in Iran and Qatar among other countries. “Reserves are going down, and the young men and women in the military are exhausted. Netanyahu had to settle on a ceasefire with Hamas, whom he had vowed to annihilate. All told, it is highly likely that the deal will collapse after the living hostages are released.”
India, however, played little to no role in the deliberations that led to the ceasefire. “As far as India is concerned, it has not played any significant role whatsoever in this burgeoning conflict. It had a flip-flop approach,” said Ahmad. “India had given total support to Palestine in the last two resolutions, so one can say that after the fumbling of the earlier period, India now seems to have a coherent diplomatic approach to the issue.”
India seems to have adopted a dual approach, giving diplomatic support to Palestine and military support to Israel, with which it has collaborated primarily on the manufacture of drones, besides other military platforms.
“It will not be in India’s interest to render unconditional support to Israel for its policy towards the Palestinians, including the genocidal war,” said Fabian. “India has started course correction, but there is scope for more correction.”
Where India can and should play a key role is in addressing the issue of humanitarian aid and assistance, not just because of strategic requirements but also because of its experience in handling such matters. Indian private companies should also participate in the major reconstruction projects that will come up in Gaza. “India should grab this opportunity to be actively involved in the regional peace process as the region is crucial for India’s long-term interests,” said Ahmad.
West Asia, besides being the biggest source of energy resources, is also one where India’s economic stakes are very high. In addition, there is a very big population of Indians living in West Asia.
“Our purchase of energy resources will go on for more than two or three decades even when there is green transition,” said Ahmad. “These energy resources are very important for our economic development. India simply cannot ignore all these developments that are taking place in its neighbourhood.”
In the short term, India will also have to ensure that the war does not escalate, particularly when Israel is looking to mount a major assault on Iran and its nuclear facilities.
“This will be an extremely dangerous escalation that will damage the region and create instability for decades to come,” said Ahmad. “This is a political and diplomatic issue and it should be handled through political processes rather than through conflict and war. India should counsel Israel that there should be no further escalation. We should also carry this message to Washington, because Israel is trying to co-opt the Trump administration into this conflict. So India’s agenda should be prevention of further escalation, participation in humanitarian assistance and reconciliation in Gaza and active involvement in an Israeli-Palestinian peace process.”
If the current ceasefire deal works out and the hostilities stop, it will be good for India. “For example, the trade through the Red Sea will be restored,” said Fabian. “Any war between Israel and Iran will be bad for India. Oil prices will go up and there can be shortages, too. A region that is insecure with the risk of war breaking out will be bad for India. There are about 9 million Indians there and the region is a major source of energy. India has invested much in Iran, including in Chabahar.”
Moreover, India should not just focus on geographies or particular nations at this time of a worldwide geopolitical churn but rather look at its strategic space, at its own security requirements and interests.
“This is not the time to pick and choose,” said Ahmad. “We don’t live in a black and white world. We live in an order where there is a multiplicity of relationships. China has ties with Israel, Russia has ties with Israel, but one has to decide the shape of one’s own perspective and the vision for the country. I would say this is a golden opportunity for Indian thinkers and strategists to get together and create a certain medium- to long-term vision of India’s crucial strategic interest in a space where so much is happening. We do not want to abdicate this space entirely to the Chinese and other parties, do we?”