NOVEMBER 2 WAS a happy day for the Congress. Bucking the trend of the ruling party winning byelections in Himachal Pradesh, the Congress swept the four polls—one Lok Sabha and three assembly seats—and told its critics that, indeed, it could take on the BJP in direct contests.
Though the overall results of the byelections to 29 assembly and three Lok Sabha seats were a mixed bag for the two national parties (the Congress won eight assembly seats and one Lok Sabha seat; the BJP, seven and one, respectively), the Himachal victory has buoyed the Congress. Pratibha Singh, the widow of former chief minister Virbhadra Singh, beat her BJP rival in Mandi—a seat the BJP had won by more than four lakh votes in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Congress retained the assembly seats of Fatehpur and Arki, and wrested Jubbal-Kotkhai from the BJP. The BJP candidate there even lost his deposit.
With less than a year to go for the state elections, the 4-0 loss has embarrassed BJP president J.P. Nadda, who belongs to the state, and has rung alarm bells for first-time Chief Minister Jairam Thakur. A few months ago, Thakur had escaped the axe as the BJP changed its chief ministers in a handful of states. Mandi is Thakur's home turf.
Though the overall results can hardly be described as a microcosm of India's political scene, the bypolls carry significant messages for political players.
“The Himachal result is very positive for the Congress,” said Rajeev Shukla, the Congress general secretary in-charge of Himachal Pradesh. “To win from Mandi also means that the people have voted against the Centre, and the victory in the Vidhan Sabha seats is a thumbs down for the state government.”
Show of strength: Rahul Gandhi with Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot (second from left) and party leaders; the Congress won both seats in the state | PTI
While the sympathy wave was a factor in the Congress's win—Virbhadra Singh died this July—the BJP admitted that price rise was also a major reason.
The Himachal Congress had been riddled with infighting following Singh's death. Now, leaders such as Kaul Singh Thakur and Mukesh Agnihotri, who wanted to become power centres in the state, can build on the victory and hope it improves the morale of party workers.
Interestingly, it seems BJP rebels dented the chances of the ruling party in Himachal Pradesh. For instance, in Jubbal-Kotkhai, the party refused a ticket to Chetan Bragta, its state IT cell convener; the seat had fell vacant after the popular Narendra Bragta died of Covid-19. Chetan fought as an independent and got 42 per cent of the votes; the BJP candidate got less than 5 per cent. The situation was similar in Fatehpur, too. There were also two BJP rebels in Rajasthan's Vallabhnagar bypoll; the BJP came fourth there.
The hill state aside, the Congress found another reason to be upbeat down south. In what was the first big electoral test for Karnataka Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, the BJP wrested Sindagi from the Janata Dal (Secular), but lost the Hangal seat, which falls in Bommai's home district of Haveri, to the Congress.
In Rajasthan, the Congress retained Vallabhnagar and snatched Dhariawad from the BJP. The wins were a shot in the arm for Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, who has been facing a staunch challenge from arch-rival Sachin Pilot. “The result shows that there is no discontentment with the Gehlot government,” said state Congress president Govind Dotasara. “It shows that Gehlot's popularity has increased and that our government is doing a good job.”
The bright spot for the BJP was Assam, where Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma cemented his position; the BJP and its ally, the United People's Party Liberal, won all five seats. The Congress, on the other hand, is fast losing ground in the northeast. An indicator of this was that two of the BJP's winners in these byelections were Congress defectors.
However, given that people kept in mind issues such as soaring petrol and diesel prices, price rise and unemployment while voting, the Congress hopes that these results will have a bearing on the upcoming assembly elections in five states.
“Of course, the results are a precursor to what will happen in the assembly elections,” said Shukla. “Uttar Pradesh is an example. You can see how the BJP is antagonising people with its policies. The Congress is making gains, which can be seen in the crowds attending public meetings of Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.”
The BJP's worries come from its inability to win in states where rivals are in power, especially in West Bengal. It had put up a good fight in the previous assembly elections there, but lost all the bypolls. The only seat the BJP could wrest from a ruling party was Huzurabad in Telangana, where it beat the Telangana Rashtra Samithi.
However, there was a ray of hope in Haryana. The BJP was expected to lose the Ellenabad assembly there, given the farmers' unrest. And it did. But, it was a close fight. The Indian National Lok Dal won; the BJP came second ahead of the Congress. The farmers' issue would be a key factor in the assembly elections in Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.
“Every state has its own local issues for bypolls,” said Minister of State for Finance Anurag Thakur. “Every political party brainstorms over it. As for Himachal Pradesh, the BJP will call a meeting and discuss the people's mandate. Steps will be taken to make necessary improvements so that lotus blooms once again in 2022.”
The election results, especially in Himachal and Rajasthan, might force the central BJP to push for changes in the state units so that the party connects more with the people. It will also be forced to look at local factors like price rise and anti-incumbency as it goes to the polls in the five states.