Can Congress push AAP into further decline in Delhi?

When Sandeep Dikshit was named the party candidate for the New Delhi assembly seat against AAP convener Arvind Kejriwal, Delhi Congress leaders welcomed the decision. They believed he was best suited to reclaim the constituency Kejriwal had taken by defeating his mother, then chief minister Sheila Dikshit, in 2013. And although Sandeep finished a distant third, he achieved a larger goal―contributing to Kejriwal’s defeat. In fact, the votes the Congress secured overall were enough to topple the AAP government.

“The increase of 2 per cent vote share (4.30 per cent to 6.34 per cent) was our cadre that came back and voted for us,” said Delhi unit spokesperson Sunil Kumar. “They had left the Congress for the AAP. Therefore, we see it as a big step for the party’s revival in Delhi. Now our booth committees will have better manpower and stronger force to counter the BJP. And we will be on our way to progress.”

Notably, just a month before the elections, both parties had cautiously engaged in negotiations for an alliance. But with the Congress insisting on a larger share of seats, the AAP swiftly declared its decision to go it alone. The Congress’s top leadership said it was Kejriwal’s decision to go solo that blocked a potential team-up.

A section of Congress leaders believes that there was also resistance from within the party; the Delhi unit leadership and top Punjab leaders were against the alliance. It is said that Congress treasurer Ajay Maken, who has a strong grip on the rank and file of the Delhi Congress, had assertively conveyed the anti-alliance sentiment to Rahul Gandhi.

“In 2027, there is an assembly election in Punjab, and the Congress doesn’t want to send any message of the AAP and Congress being together,” said Aditya Rathi, a political analyst. “If such a thing goes public, the Akali Dal will find a narrative to revive itself and the BJP will also become strong. The panthic vote bank is scattered right now after the decline of the Akali Dal and it is mostly expected to come the Congress’s way. This is the reason both parties had a tactical alliance in Punjab during the Lok Sabha polls, where they contested against each other.”

In the weeks leading up to the Delhi elections, the Congress was gaining momentum with its leaders launching an all-out offensive against Kejriwal. Maken even branded him an anti-national. However, enthusiasm within the party ranks waned after the Congress abruptly cancelled a highly anticipated press conference targeting Kejriwal. According to a top source, Kejriwal had reached out to a chief minister from the INDIA bloc, who enjoys a cordial relationship with Rahul, to request him to prevent Maken from holding the press conference. The Congress complied to maintain unity within the INDIA bloc.

However, after a brief pause, Kejriwal launched a full-scale attack, targeting both the Congress and the BJP. A senior Congress leader said, “The cancellation was a gesture that we wanted to keep the decorum of our alliance at the national level intact. It showcased our political commitment. But over time, we sensed that there is no such consideration from the AAP.”

It is also noteworthy that the two rival leaders in the Delhi Congress, Sandeep and Maken, who had tried to undermine each other in the past, momentarily resolved their differences and unified against common enemy Kejriwal.

Also, rarely does it happen that the Congress loses an election and there are no calls for the state unit leadership to resign. In fact, at a social gathering hosted by a prominent Congress leader a day after the results, most of the top leaders hinted that the party had done a great job despite scoring zero. The sense of contentment stemmed from their belief that the path to both the upcoming assembly and Lok Sabha elections in Delhi was now clear. With a bit of effort, the Congress feels it is poised to rise to prominence, while swiftly pushing the AAP into steep decline.

The AAP’s defeat has caused existential fear among allies in the INDIA bloc who could now try to weaken the Congress to keep their hold in their respective states. According to a leader privy to developments, whispers are growing that the Congress’s regional allies within the opposition bloc may gradually drift away, and strengthen their positions in their respective states, ultimately forging a third front.

Congress insiders say that Kejriwal, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav and West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress chairperson Mamata Banerjee have already tried to create a group within the INDIA bloc and they might be the first in line to attempt it again, if not take a step further and break out of the coalition.