After the Delhi debacle, will INDIA bloc partners isolate Congress?

Rasheed Kidwai

Brinkmanship, one-upmanship or sheer indeterminacy? The much-touted INDIA bloc, or opposition unity, is on its deathbed, craving an urgent, statesmanlike, hands-on approach, while most of its protagonists remain either indifferent or mute bystanders.

The most die-hard supporters of the alliance, including those within the Congress, however, remain optimistic that it will continue to breathe and stage a comeback in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. Until then, the alliance is expected to maintain informal but effective floor coordination in both houses of Parliament and seek viable seat-sharing arrangements in states such as Bihar, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh. However, Kerala and Bengal will witness acrimonious divisions among the INDIA bloc partners when assembly elections are held in 2026. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has not even decided to entrust the Kerala and Assam poll campaigns to two of his favourites―K.C. Venugopal and Gaurav Gogoi―despite the party’s desperation to stage a comeback in these crucial states.

For astute political observers, the prospects of the INDIA bloc surviving the post-Delhi poll hiccups remain grim. Several regional parties, including the Trinamool Congress, the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar), the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray) and a section of the Samajwadi Party, are toying with the idea of forming a new front to isolate the Congress. This move is still in its nascent stage and aspires to bring on board Arvind Kejriwal, M.K. Stalin, Omar Abdullah, Hemant Soren and some smaller parties.

There are also discussions and deliberations about uniting parties that split from the Congress in the 1990s―namely, the NCP (Pawar), the YSR Congress and the Trinamool―and forcing Rahul’s hand to acknowledge Mamata Banerjee, Pawar and Jagan Mohan Reddy as significant stakeholders in the grand old party. This initiative has the backing of certain Congress veterans who were part of the G-23 group, which dropped a letter bomb in August 2020. According to this school of thought, unless Rahul is restrained within the Congress parivar, the party’s revival will remain a distant dream.

Incredibly, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge and Rahul were in favour of a seat adjustment with the Aam Aadmi Party in both Haryana and Delhi. However, they were vetoed by regional satraps within the Congress. In August–September 2024, Kejriwal sought a few seats in Haryana, but Bhupinder Singh Hooda convinced Rahul not to engage with the AAP. By the time the Delhi polls were announced, Gopal Rai and Sanjay Singh of the AAP had ruled out a seat-sharing formula in Delhi, yet Kejriwal and Kharge still hoped for some tacit understanding. Snappishly, Congress treasurer Ajay Maken escalated tensions by branding Kejriwal “anti-national”. While Kharge dithered, Rahul listened to Delhi politicians who pitched for a strong anti-Kejriwal stance. The in-house poll strategist proverbially added fuel to the fire, assuring Rahul that if the party contested alone, it could win ten assembly seats. Rahul once again leaned on Sunil Kanugolu, who failed and faltered for the third time in a row.

It was not as if Rahul did not attempt to find a middle ground. At one point, he requested Maken to refrain from holding a no-holds-barred news conference against Kejriwal. However, the very next day, Rahul was dismayed to see Pawar, Uddhav, Mamata and Akhilesh Yadav extending support to Kejriwal. Akhilesh even campaigned for the AAP in Delhi, which effectively meant criticising the Congress, despite the Samajwadi Party fighting the Milkipur by-election in UP with Congress support.

Congress insiders acknowledge that constant flip-flops in Delhi proved costly for the party and the INDIA bloc. The reality was that the Congress was far from prepared to contest the Delhi polls independently. This was evident from the fact that it finished second in only one constituency while forfeiting deposits in 67 of 70 seats. While Kharge watched, Rahul relied on the same set of advisers and Congress office-bearers, who reportedly convinced him that the AAP’s defeat in Delhi would help the Congress gain a foothold not only in the national capital, but also in Punjab, Gujarat and other states where it had expanded its footprint. Rahul believed he was upholding internal party democracy by giving Delhi Congress leaders a free hand. The Congress has now recorded six consecutive electoral failures in the three parliamentary and assembly polls in Delhi since 2014, a dubious record of sorts.

INDIA bloc partners argue that the biggest obstacle to opposition unity is a trust deficit with Rahul. Unlike his mother, Sonia Gandhi, who created and nurtured the United Progressive Alliance for ten years, Rahul has failed to bring a single ally into the Congress fold. The Congress also suffers from the absence of veterans in the mould of Pranab Mukherjee, Arjun Singh and Ahmed Patel―leaders who once commanded respect among the opposition and allies. While the Congress has a bench strength of seasoned politicians such as Shashi Tharoor, Manish Tewari, Bhupesh Baghel, Ashok Gehlot, Anand Sharma, Prithviraj Chavan and Abhishek Manu Singhvi, their services are not sought, largely because Venugopal reportedly dislikes them. Pawar, Farooq Abdullah, Kapil Sibal, Sushil Kumar Shinde and even Lalu Yadav have the potential to bring INDIA bloc partners to the negotiating table, yet they are actively discouraged by Team Rahul. In fact, many believe that a combination of Priyanka Gandhi and Sachin Pilot could work wonders, but the Congress seems allergic to change or to alliance partners emerging as co-equals, convenors or active players.

Paradoxically, while Rahul constantly calls for constitutional propriety and adherence to its provisions, within his own party, the Congress constitution is given scant respect or functional status. More on that another day.

Author-commentator Rasheed Kidwai is a Congress watcher.