How corruption allegations shred AAP's anti-graft sails

The mood was different in December 2013. Arvind Kejriwal, then a political rookie, took oath as Delhi’s youngest chief minister after a stunning victory over Sheila Dikshit and her Congress. “This feels like a miracle,” he declared at Ramlila Maidan, where anti-corruption protests led by Anna Hazare gave birth to the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and brought Kejriwal to the national stage. Thousands of supporters filled the maidan, their enthusiasm undampened by Kejriwal’s offbeat rendition of “Insaan ka insaan se ho bhaichara, yehi paigham hamara”, the Manna Dey song about peace and brotherhood. The media drew parallels between the AAP’s rise and the plot of Anil Kapoor’s 2001 film Nayak.

It is a starkly different mood now. The AAP has suffered a major defeat in the assembly polls, with most of its top leaders―including Kejriwal and his deputy, Manish Sisodia―losing on their home turf. Serious questions have been raised about the future of a party that, lacking a clear ideological framework, rose on the back of an anti-corruption movement and consolidated through civic and welfare policies, even as it increasingly leaned into populism and agitational politics.

As freebies rained in the run-up to the polls, voters across constituencies cited basic amenities―lack of drinkable water, inadequate sanitation, mounting garbage dumps and electricity bills―as key issues. “This time, voters are looking for change,” said Mahesh, a 46-year-old shopkeeper in East Delhi’s Kalyanpuri.

In a survey by Lokniti-CSDS, conducted between January 29 and February 6 (a day after polling), nine out of ten respondents said they were upset with the city’s “lack of cleanliness”. Eighty per cent were disappointed over pollution levels and lack of clean drinking water.

In 2020, Kejriwal promised voters that he would cleanse the Yamuna river, declaring that they could reject him if he failed. This time, the voters took the cue, as 80 per cent of respondents cited issues with the Yamuna as a concern. In the final leg of the campaign, Kejriwal had levelled the wild allegation that the BJP-led Haryana government was poisoning the Yamuna. After the polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi referred to “Yamuna Maiyya” in his victory speech, highlighting how local issues decided the election.

After stepping down as CM in September 2024, days after being granted bail by the Supreme Court in the excise policy case, Kejriwal said: “I will not sit on the CM’s seat until the people elect me again. If they think Kejriwal is honest, I would return. If not, I won’t.”

Voters chose otherwise. The Lokniti-CSDS survey said nearly two-thirds of respondents saw the AAP as corrupt, with 28 per cent perceiving it as very corrupt. Two key scandals―the alleged liquor policy scam and the Rs52.7 crore spent on refurbishing the CM’s residence (dubbed sheesh mahal by the BJP)―played a major role in the AAP’s defeat.

“Corruption was one of the main factors that tarnished Kejriwal’s credibility as an anti-corruption crusader,” said Mahesh Kaushik, an economics professor at Delhi University who was part of the survey team. “This is evident from the fact that the AAP lost all 10 seats he campaigned in.”

According to Prof Rekha Saxena, head of the department of political science at Delhi University, other factors also contributed to the AAP’s decline, such as its “confrontational approach, often characterised by public protests and disputes with Central authorities”. “The party’s repeated clashes with the Central government… may have alienated sections of the electorate looking for stability in governance,” she said.

As internal errors fuelled the AAP’s decline, the BJP’s well-coordinated campaign engaged with voters. Its outreach programme targeted Delhi’s slums and JJ clusters (unplanned settlements of jhuggi-jhopris, or roughly built shelters)―traditional AAP strongholds. BJP leaders personally engaged with slum-dwellers, even spending nights in their homes. “It is having an impact,” Vishnu Mittal, Delhi BJP’s general secretary, told The WEEK before polling.

Factors such as the Centre’s approval of the eighth pay commission and the Union budget, too, played a major role. “In the initial phase of the campaign (December to mid-January), the wave was in fact in favour of the AAP in over 40 seats,” said Kaushik. “But after the announcement of the eighth pay commission in the second half of January, government employees came in favour of the BJP.”

The Union budget swayed middle-class voters. “With the announcement of up to Rs12 lakh in tax-free income, the middle class came out in support of the BJP,” he said. Women were also influenced. “With the announcement, women started believing that the BJP could deliver on its promises,” Kaushik added.

Despite the setback, there is consolation for the AAP: Muslims and dalits continue to support it. The AAP won six of seven Muslim-dominated seats, and eight of 12 seats reserved for the scheduled castes.

But experts say that, despite the continued backing from these demographics, the AAP’s lack of an ideological anchor remains a problem. “Without a strong ideological anchor, the party risks losing its distinctiveness in an increasingly polarised political landscape,” said Saxena.

Conceding his defeat, Kejriwal said the AAP would play the role of “constructive opposition”. “We are not in politics for power. We see it as a medium to serve people,” he said.

The loss is a considerable blow, but it may not be a death knell for the AAP. “Its sustained attractiveness among key demographics,” said Saxena, “and its administrative experience in Delhi and Punjab provides the party chances for revival.”