ON MARCH 11, Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to Gujarat for a victory lap, after winning four of the five assembly elections, including in Uttar Pradesh. He had stayed away from Gujarat for over 11 months―the longest absence from his home state since 2016―which also coincided with one of the toughest periods for his government. The country was hit by the second wave of Covid, the BJP could not dislodge Mamata Banerjee from West Bengal and the party was forced to change four chief ministers, including in Gujarat, to counter anti-incumbency.
By picking Gujarat for the victory parade, Modi was sending a message that he expected nothing short of a commanding performance on his home turf. Since then, he has travelled to the state every month to inaugurate multiple projects, and has been at the forefront of the BJP’s assembly campaign. Winning the polls convincingly is a matter of prestige for both Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who is handling the party strategy in the election season, which will culminate in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
The Gujarat elections will also test the effectiveness of the BJP’s strategy of replacing its chief ministers to deal with anti-incumbency and introduce generational change in the party. The BJP is betting on Bhupendra Patel, the first-term MLA who was appointed chief minister in September 2021, after retiring veteran leaders like Vijay Rupani, Nitin Patel, Bhupendrasinh Chudasama and Pradipsinh Jadeja.
Unlike the 2017 polls when the Patidar agitation, dalit angst and anger over demonetisation and GST made the voters look towards the Congress to teach the BJP a lesson, the saffron party finds itself comfortably placed this time. But herein lies the danger as it could turn into complacency for hardcore BJP voters. The campaign so far has been low key as the usual polarising fight between the BJP and the Congress is missing this time, with the grand old party opting for a quiet campaign. The AAP, meanwhile, is angling for a better show.
Modi has spotted the Congress strategy and has been warning his workers against any complacency. On November 21, he complained to the voters that the Congress had insulted him several times in the past. The BJP has also been holding a blitzkrieg of rallies to build momentum and force cadres out of their homes to campaign and to vote. “We contest elections on the basis of the strength of our cadres and their engagement with the people. Modi has captured hearts with development. Shah strategises and executes it on the ground,” said state BJP chief C.R. Patil.
In 2017, the BJP suffered in two areas―in Saurashtra because of the Patidar agitation and in the tribal belt. The party has tried to address both constituencies this time. The face of the Patidar agitation, Hardik Patel, has joined the saffron camp. OBC leader Alpesh Thakor, who was at the forefront of anti-BJP agitation, too, is now with the BJP. Bhupendra Patel’s elevation as chief minister is also a part of the strategy to send out a signal to the Patidar vote bank. The recent Supreme Court judgment on the EWS (economically weaker section) quota has come in as an opportune moment for the BJP as the Centre’s decision to give a 10 per cent quota based on economic criteria helps the Patidar community.
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The BJP is wooing the tribal vote bank with a slew of measures in the region. The decision to make Droupadi Murmu president and several other steps like commemorating the birthday of tribal icon Birsa Munda as Janjatiya Gaurav Divas are also expected to help in flipping the tribal votes.
As far as tactics are concerned, the BJP’s election template has been to drop unpopular MLAs, reward the turncoats and allot tickets keeping caste equations in mind. The party denied tickets to 38 MLAs, allowed 17 turncoats to contest and gave considerable representation to OBCs and other influential castes. Patidars, who form 12 per cent of the electorate, got 45 seats, while OBCs who comprise more than 40 per cent of the voters got 59 seats. The party has put up 13 scheduled caste candidates and 27 scheduled tribe candidates. As hindutva politics resonate well in the state, the BJP has promised to introduce the uniform civil code and has given ticket to the daughter of a person convicted in the Naroda Patiya riots case.
After being in power for 27 years, the BJP remains a formidable force in Gujarat, and Modi and Shah continue to be its major stars. The results in the winter of 2022 could point towards the way spring would break in 2024.