Sri Lanka could look beyond the Rajapaksas next polls

SOMETIME BETWEEN 2004 and 2005, when Mahinda Rajapaksa was the prime minister of Sri Lanka during president Chandrika Kumaratunga’s term, Sinhalese astrologer Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena predicted that the Rajapaksa family would rule the island for the next 50 years. He foretold Mahinda that his brothers would rule after him, followed by his children. But Abeygunawardena failed to predict the economic crisis that has made the Rajapaksa clan unpopular.

When Gotabaya Rajapaksa took oath as president in 2019 at an ancient temple built by Sinhalese King Dutugemenu—who is best known for defeating an invading Chola king—the majority Sinhala Buddhists in the country hailed him as the “terminator”. It was believed that the Rajapaksas would again take the country forward, socially and economically. But today, Sri Lanka is facing an economic crisis, perhaps its worst. From a fertiliser ban to falling foreign reserves to bankruptcy, the situation in the country has turned Lankans against the Rajapaksas.

The Rajapaksa clan has four brothers at its helm—Irrigation Minister Chamal, Prime Minister Mahinda, President Gotabaya and Finance Minister Basil. Mahinda’s son, Namal Rajapaksa, who is sports minister, and other members of the family, too, hold key positions. Despite being the power centre, the Rajapaksas have not been able to rein in the economic crisis. Gotabaya’s recent address to the nation, where he said he was “sensitive to the many sufferings the people have had to experience over the past two months”, failed to calm nerves. Basil’s efforts to seek support from the International Monetary Fund and at getting a $1 billion line of credit from India, too, had little impact.

“I believed that under Gotabaya we would grow like Singapore,” said Harsha Karunakare, a businessman. “I asked everyone—all my friends and relatives—to vote for him in 2019. This is because he was successful in ending the [civil] war. But now I feel Prabhakaran [chief of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam] should have been alive and there should have been a separate Eelam. If it had been there, we at least could have borrowed money from them to resolve our economic crisis. I have lost hope in Gota.”

Karunakare was part of the protest organised by Sajith Premadasa’s Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) on March 15. The crisis has provided fresh ammo to the opposition. A popular slogan during the protest was ‘Gota, go home’. There is palpable anger against Gotabaya. The president is not seen as an inclusive person like Basil; neither is he respected or loved by everyone like Mahinda. Basil is the strategist in the family and, unlike Gotabaya, has his ears to the ground. It is said that the four brothers do not see eye to eye on several policy and political matters.

The biggest reason for Gotabaya’s waning popularity over the past year is his authoritarian streak. He is loathed by the Tamils in north and east Sri Lanka over war crimes. The Muslims are wary of him as he is a staunch Sinhala Buddhist. Of late, Gotabaya, sources in Colombo said, has not been consulting Mahinda, who has been unwell, on administration and policy matters. Rather, he relies on a powerful coterie of officers.

But people’s anger is not restricted to Gotabaya; Mahinda had to cancel his visit to Nallur Kandasamy temple on March 20 because of protests. With the backlash against the Rajapaksas rising, the prospects of their Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party have been falling. Its parliamentary allies are threatening to break away, demanding that they be consulted on every government move. Gotabaya and Basil, however, have chosen to ignore this demand.

And while the opposition is clamouring for Gotabaya’s resignation, with no elections round the corner, a parliamentary vote would mean a Rajapaksa would get the president’s chair, as the SLPP has majority, and not someone from the opposition like Premadasa or Patali Champika Ranawaka, who was with the SJB and now heads the 43 Brigade, or Anura Kumara Dissanayaka of the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (JJB).

Among the Rajapaksas, Namal is a probable candidate for president, but his father, SLPP sources said, wants him to follow in his footsteps and rise to power by first being in the opposition. So, the only option left in the family is Basil. “Basil has presidential aspirations, but he may not be elected immediately, given the fact that the cabinet cannot be dissolved within two and a half years after election,” said former MP P. Shivajilingam, who was in Chennai to express the distress of the Tamil community in the wake of the economic crisis.

Sources said that India, aware of Basil’s aspirations, has been nurturing ties with him. Basil too, has been closer to the ruling dispensation in India than his two elder brothers. “Basil has been visiting India and meeting leaders there only for the people of our country, only to get financial help and loans to save the country from the crisis,” said sources close to the Rajapaksa clan.

But with the Rajapaksas growing unpopular, new alternatives are emerging in Sri Lankan politics. While Premadasa, who contested against Gotabaya in 2019, is popular among both the Sinhala majority and the Tamil minority, he is not looked at as an alternative to the Rajapaksas by the Sinhalese. But there are other leaders, too, like Ranawaka, who, in the past two years, has cultivated the image of an intellectual and a committed politician. He launched 43 Brigade in 2021. Structured on the theme of ‘not a number, but a generation’, the 43 Brigade is a political movement inspired by the Kannangara revolution of 1943 that introduced the free education policy in Sri Lanka. The 43 Brigade recently released a document that resembled an election manifesto, offering solutions to the crisis and implying that he could replace the Rajapaksas.

Another leader who has made a mark is Dissanayaka of the JJB. A charismatic leader, Dissanayaka is seen as someone who can rally the youth in the country. But JJB’s principal partner, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna, has a violent history, having led two unsuccessful insurrections in the 1970s and 1980s. So while the youth may support the JJB, the older generation may not.

The fourth in the race is Karu Jayasuriya of the National Movement for Social Justice. Jayasuriya is looked at as a person who will deliver on his promises and could muster the support of the opposition forces to fight the SLPP.

A name that has surprised many is that of former chief justice Shirani Bandaranayake, who was impeached by parliament on corruption charges and removed from office by the Rajapaksas in 2013.

Will any one of these leaders manage to topple the Rajapaksas? Or, will Abeygunawardena’s prophecy hold true in the long run?