OPINION | The fifth plenum: A prelude to the 21st CPC Party Congress and a warning signal

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) was held in Beijing from October 26 to 29, 2026. Xi Jinping, General Secretary of the CPC, delivered a report on the work of the Politburo and provided explanatory remarks on the principal resolution, which was later adopted at the session. One of the key announcements made at the plenum was that the 21st Party Congress will be convened in the second half of 2027. This announcement suggests that no further plenary sessions of the 20th Central Committee are expected to be held during the intervening period before the 21st Party Congress.

The CPC has formally commenced preparations for the party congress. The party has announced that the congress will comprise 2,360 delegates, an increase of 60 delegates over the 20th Party Congress. In keeping with established practice, a number of prominent Party veterans will also attend the congress as Specially Invited Guests.

The increase in the number of delegates reflects changes in both Party membership and the number of Party organisations. The allocation of delegate seats is determined principally by the size of Party membership and the number of Party organisations in each constituency, while also taking into account delegate quotas assigned at previous National Party Congresses, thereby ensuring both representativeness and continuity in the allocation process.

The 21st Party Congress will be entrusted with the important responsibility of electing a new Central Committee and a new Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI). In addition, the congress will conduct a comprehensive review of the Party's work during the tenure of the 20th Party Congress and formulate the objectives, priorities, and development agenda that will guide the Party and the country over the next five years.

It is noteworthy that the proceedings of the Fifth Plenary Session underscored the Party's stringent control over the delegate selection process. The process involves multiple layers of scrutiny, including comprehensive assessments of candidates' political loyalty, ideological understanding, and overall qualifications at each level before their names are forwarded for further review and approval.

Throughout his tenure, Xi Jinping has repeatedly underscored the importance of maintaining strict Party discipline and upholding the Party's guiding principles. Senior Party leaders have likewise stressed the need for the thorough study and implementation of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era.

Consequently, the selection of delegates for the 21st Party Congress is likely to serve not only as a test of organisational qualifications and political reliability, but also as an assessment of candidates' understanding of and commitment to Xi Jinping's ideological vision and the Party's current policy direction.

Notably, the plenum highlighted the accomplishments achieved through the policy of comprehensive and strict Party self-governance in the new era. It credited the leadership of the Party Central Committee with Xi Jinping at its core, together with the guidance of Xi Jinping Thought, for revitalising Party governance and addressing problems associated with weak discipline and organisational laxity. The plenum further asserted that the sustained enforcement of strict Party self-governance has been instrumental in rectifying undesirable practices, strengthening Party discipline, and resolving a number of persistent governance challenges that had previously affected the Party's functioning.

Publicly released guidelines indicate that candidates seeking election as delegates to the 21st Party Congress are expected to meet standards across six core dimensions: ideological quality, political consciousness, work capability, conduct and reputation, professional achievements, and the fulfilment of their duties and responsibilities. These criteria reflect the Party's emphasis on ensuring that delegates possess not only strong organisational and professional credentials, but also a high degree of political reliability and ideological commitment.

Essentially, delegates to the 21st Party Congress are being selected on the basis of their ideological commitment, particularly their understanding of and adherence to Xi Jinping Thought, as well as their professional competence, integrity, and public standing. The emphasis appears to be not only on political loyalty, but also on an individual's ability to perform responsibilities effectively and maintain a clean personal and professional record.

In the past, several senior Chinese officials were removed from their positions owing to allegations of personal misconduct or corruption rather than shortcomings in ideological commitment or administrative ability. Against this backdrop, Xi Jinping's approach seems aimed at ensuring that those elected as delegates possess an unblemished reputation, strong political credentials, and the capacity to shoulder greater responsibilities within the Party. Such a selection process reflects an effort to strengthen Party discipline and ensure that the next generation of representatives exemplifies both political reliability and personal integrity.

The strong emphasis on ideological education and political commitment suggests that Xi Jinping may be seeking to cultivate a cohort of highly loyal Party members who can be relied upon to support the leadership during periods of political uncertainty. By placing ideological credentials, particularly a thorough understanding of Xi Jinping Thought, at the centre of the delegate selection process, the Party appears intent on reinforcing political cohesion ahead of the 21st Party Congress.

Such an approach could help ensure that delegates remain aligned with the current leadership's priorities and agenda. From this perspective, a Congress composed largely of politically reliable delegates would be less likely to challenge Xi's leadership and more likely to endorse the continuation of his policies and strategic vision. This, in turn, could strengthen his position as he seeks to consolidate authority during the next phase of China's political development.

At the same time, the political landscape within the Party has evolved considerably in recent years. Many senior leaders associated with earlier generations have either retired because of age and term-related norms or been removed from office through anti-corruption campaigns. As a result, potential centres of opposition appear significantly weaker than in previous leadership transitions, potentially providing Xi with greater room to shape the composition and direction of the Party leadership in the years ahead.

The CPC's delegate selection process signals a possible strengthening of ideological influence within the Party leadership, a development that could have important implications for China–India relations. If current trends continue, the post-21st Party Congress leadership may be dominated by officials whose political outlook is shaped by strong ideological commitment and unwavering adherence to the Party line. Such a leadership structure could reduce policy flexibility and make diplomatic engagement on contentious issues, including the boundary dispute, regional security, and strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, more challenging.

The renewed emphasis on ideological education has invited comparisons with earlier periods in the Party's history, especially during Mao's period, when political doctrine occupied a central place in governance. While contemporary China differs significantly from the Mao era, an excessive focus on ideological conformity risks limiting debate within policymaking circles and narrowing the scope for pragmatic compromise. For India, this may translate into a more assertive and less accommodative Chinese leadership, with implications for the long-term trajectory of bilateral relations.