Ukraine's sustained drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, marked by a record 16 refinery attacks in May, has severely impacted Russia's oil processing capabilities, disabling approximately 42.74% of its designed capacity and resulting in an estimated $13.5 billion in losses by August 2025, potentially triggering a nationwide fuel crisis that a regional economist warns could escalate into internal conflicts and contribute to the disintegration of the Russian Federation due to shortages affecting transport, tourism, and logistics.

Ukraine's sustained drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, marked by a record 16 refinery attacks in May, has severely impacted Russia's oil processing capabilities, disabling approximately 42.74% of its designed capacity and resulting in an estimated $13.5 billion in losses by August 2025, potentially triggering a nationwide fuel crisis that a regional economist warns could escalate into internal conflicts and contribute to the disintegration of the Russian Federation due to shortages affecting transport, tourism, and logistics.

Ukraine's sustained drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure, marked by a record 16 refinery attacks in May, has severely impacted Russia's oil processing capabilities, disabling approximately 42.74% of its designed capacity and resulting in an estimated $13.5 billion in losses by August 2025, potentially triggering a nationwide fuel crisis that a regional economist warns could escalate into internal conflicts and contribute to the disintegration of the Russian Federation due to shortages affecting transport, tourism, and logistics.

Russia is battling a fuel crisis, probably one of the largest in decades, thanks to the  intense attack carried out by Ukraine on Russian energy infrastructure. Ukraine  reportedly launched a campaign of drone strikes on oil infrastructure deep inside Russian territory, and Russian oil refineries were hit over 194 times since the start of 2026.

According to a report by Financial Times citing its own analysis and data from the Polish research group Rochan Consulting,  Ukrainian drones successfully attacked Russian oil refineries 16 times in May—a record monthly figure since the start of the full-scale war.

The effectiveness of the Ukrainian campaign has increased thanks to increased production of long-range drones, improved tactics for their use, and, according to the newspaper's sources among Ukrainian officials, assistance from American intelligence in choosing flight routes that bypass Russian air defence systems.

According to Ukrainian media, attacks on Russian oil refineries have led to significant losses in the oil industry and a fuel crisis in the country. Eight oil refineries have been  attacked over the past month, knocking out 42.74% of the total designed oil refining  capacity. Total losses are estimated to have reached $13.5 billion as of August 2025.

Meanwhile, a regional analyst and economist has stated that the fuel shortage could be one of the factors that will trigger the process of the disintegration of the Russian Federation.

Igor Lipsits, who was once one of Russia's leading economists, has said that he believes regional conflicts are already underway in the country due to the lack of gasoline.

He cites examples of potential conflicts between regions over fuel and infrastructure, which could exacerbate internal tensions within the country. Lipsits added that draft decisions are already appearing at the level of regional administrations aimed at restricting transport transit due to fuel shortages. Such processes may gradually affect internal mobility, tourism, and logistics, which will only increase economic pressure.