Though US President Donald Trump imposed a 50 per cent tariff on New Delhi to wean it off Russian crude oil, even pro-MAGA and GOP-leaning media think his decision could be a geopolitical gaffe as India is getting closer to America's rivals Russia and China. A report published by a conservative mouthpiece, Fox News, on the implications of the Trump administration’s decision stated that the US-India relationship, seen as “one of the great success stories of post–Cold War diplomacy,” is "facing its most serious test in years".
The conservative outlet pointed out that deteriorating India-US ties may put Quad under risk. Quad is a grouping of India, the US, Japan and Australia formed to counter China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific. Fox News pointed out that the Indian public opinion looks at the Trump tariffs as a threat to sovereignty. Evan Feigenbaum, a South Asia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, told the outlet that Indians will not put up with what they view as an interference in its foreign policy.
"We’re in a situation in the U.S.-India relationship where the premises and assumptions of the last 25 years — that everybody worked very hard to build, including the president in his first term — have just come completely unravelled," Feigenbaum said, "The trust is gone."
The expert said that though some of India's diplomatic gestures aimed at China and Russia is meant to irk America, it is not true in all cases. "India is going to double down on some aspects of its economic and defence relationship with Russia," he said. "And those parts are not performative."
Michael Kugelman, a Washington-based South Asia analyst, told the conservative outlet that defence cooperation and intelligence sharing requires a lot of trust. "And given what’s happened over the last few months, that might be a harder sell for the Indians," he said.
In contrast, India's all-weather friendship with Russia is more durable. New Delhi had reduced it dependence on Russian defence imports and diversified its options in favour of US, French and Israeli arms. But when the Ukraine war began India saw an opportunity in procuring discounted crude oil from Russia. "This is essentially validation of a view in India that the US can’t be trusted, whereas Russia can — because Russia is always going to be there for India no matter what," said Kugelman.
Ever since the Trump tariffs hit home, India has made an all-out effort to improve ties with China and Russia. This is evident from the Moscow trips of National Security Advisor Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar this month as well as Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's recent New Delhi visit. On top of this, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to travel by end of this month to China's Tianjin for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit, where he is expected to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin will also travel to India later this year.
Kugelman noted that India had made efforts on its part to cut tariffs and cooperate with deportation of illegal immigrants from India. But he pointed out that India needs to be cautious about Trump seeing these concessions as Modi's "willingness to bend". "This is one reason there was no trade deal — Modi put his foot down," the expert told Fox News.
Kugelman recounted that Modi's defiant tone in support of India's farmers, small businesses and young workers has given the prime minister "real political mileage".
